Member Info for BroadfordBay

So, a discount to Brent of 30% is regarded by some here as a good thing!

As if they would show you the true discount...

NO real data, no proud claim of what "our valuable sour and heavy SH crude, so desperately needed by US Refiners" actually achieved on the open market as part of the KRI Blend - why not?

Just encouraging a "positive interpretation" by the little people, the proud Long-and-Strong holders.

What a poor update.

Clear as mud.

I expect the SP slide to continue apace.

Interesting contribution by Simon Watkins in Oil Price dot com.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Kurdistans-Oil-Lifeline-at-Risk-as-Baghdad-Payments-Fall-Short-Again.html

Kurdistan says Baghdad has transferred only ~41% of its owed budget since 2023, threatening salary payments, debt servicing to oil firms, and basic governance.

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SOMO / the Central gov, has always said they didn't receive the PSC contracts requested from all the companies operating in KRI. SOMO did, however, (as we all did at the time) download the company PSCs that were put up on the MNR website.

So, the attempted WoodMack correlation between PSCs seen by Baghdad and invoices already submitted, plus those now to be submitted by the OilCos should theoretically be unproblematic - UNLESS there are other hidden factors forming part of the agreements but not released to the market that skew the numbers.

In that case we can expect further delays.

How true your words are.

FAR too many here, and on the other bb, are looking for comfort instead of opening their minds and questioning and analysing and reasoning and doubting...

I believe it was CS Lewis who penned the following:

"If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end: if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth—only soft soap and wishful thinking to begin with and, in the end, despair."

...covering O&G exploring & development in Black Sea and Med.

https://www.turkishminute.com/2026/01/08/turkeys-national-oil-company-signs-exploration-mou-with-exxon-mobil-unit/

There are other, MUCH more valuable, natural resources than heavy crude at stake there in Venezuela and other northern parts of South America.

Google COLTAN with CHINA and/or ILLEGAL and you'll get the flavour....

Many people, and for their own specific reasons, deliberately employ loose language - like using "around" instead of roughly or approximately.

Around $60/bbl could mean $57 for example.

Around 27API could mean 25API...

Resumed Kirkuk exports drag down medium crude prices in the Med.

Medium crude prices in the Mediterranean tumbled to multi-month lows in October, as the resumption of Kirkuk flows added further pressure to an already crowded market, just as OPEC+ producers continued ramping up supply. Kurdish crude is currently assessed at -$4/bbl against Dated Brent, compared with -$1.8/bbl in early October, according to Argus Media data. This equates to a $4.4/bbl discount to SOMO’s OSP, reflecting both the abundant supply in the market and the quality compensation.

NB: In the Mediterranean - US Gulf cargoes will have a different discount figure.

ValueS,

I wasn’t comparing SH to Atrush, nor to Sarsang – just pointing out that Shaikan and Atrush share the same the oil-bearing formations, with SH oil being somewhat heavier - although at Atrush they also discovered the full range of Jurassic crudes from 10API up to 28API.

ValueS,

good to exchange views!

I have been following our Northern neighbour Shamaran's recent experiences with water breakthrough (high water cut already seen in at least 3 wells) and their views on Matrix porosity & permeability following SCAL studies which indicated that an eventual water displacement process might be advantageous for some future production (mixed USBM wettability with spontaneous imbibition). The properties of the various formations are highly variable across the field - and I expect SH to the immediate South to be very similar. Pockets of extremely low permeability (Matrix) can seemingly co-exist alongside areas of high fracture porosity.

I must say, I do miss the level of technical data that used to be regularly presented - gave us something to get our teeth into.

ValueS,

More qualified posters have contributed:

Porosity has to be seen & considered in conjunction with Permeability

Porosity = space/volume/void space within the rock which can contain fluids

Permeability = ability of porous rock to transmit fluids thru the pores.

As I recall, there was a lot of discussion at the time with regard to very high fracture density & flow potentially causing or leading to water coning, with associated "water wash", as the pressure depletion helps draw up water from deeper levels and the prolonged oil contact with the water leads to viscosity degradation (makes it heavier, more viscous) all contributing to high rates of water production but with only very low rates of Matrix flow/contribution.

I believe the Eastern side of the SH field appears to be showing early signs of this - hence the forthcoming installation of a significant amount of water handling equipment and the tailing off of daily bopd output per well in that area.

ValueS,

you might find the 11th Sept-2020 post at 17:14 on LSE by Nobodyspecial interesting.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=GKP&share=gulf_keystone&thread=26B643B3-97C8-4B84-AB49-C779CE006E8B

ValueS: I believe the (low) porosity value you speak of was that of the Matrix.

For the foreseeable future the main contribution to SH output will continue to be the Fractures present in the various formations.

In the last 15 years there have been TWO well-qualified posters with deep technical knowledge of what was happening at Shaikan: Gramacho and BBBS (there have been other excellent, albeit less technically qualified posters, but for the moment these two should suffice to make the point).

BBBS gained a super following mostly thanks to his "100Bn barrel scenario" published in 2010 (all GKP blocks).

Gramacho, the most technically qualified of the two (petroleum geologist), was very bullish about the GKP story but became far less so after publication of the ERCE CPR of April 2014 - the one in which the revised OWC (oil-water contact) greatly reduced the field's expected OIP. Gramacho published his analysis in an excellent paper published on Interactive Investor on 14th April 2014 and sent a copy to the company, pointing out stuff that was not right (incl. AIM compliance issue re disclosure of ALL fluids contacts) and requesting correction and/or full data disclosure.

He never got it and eventually stopped posting.

This is what he said towards the end of his analysis: IMO this post clearly demonstrates that vast amounts of material information was withheld from investors by the GKP BOD from 4Q 2011 to 1Q 2014. Information that would have altered the view of many investors on the volumes of OIP in Shaikan and more importantly how much of that would be recoverable given a large percentage of that OIP sits in a low permeability matrix embedded with water bearing fractures. In my view the non-release of this information may amount to gross misconduct and grounds for dismissal of those ultimately responsible. This is an issue for the new Chairman and new members of the BOD to investigate and potentially the regulatory authorities.

Ever since April-2014, GKP retail investors have been sharply divided - between those who fell in love with the 100Bn story, and those who appreciated a more balanced and technical/petro-geological evaluation.

As many of you will appreciate, the issue of trust is paramount.

(ALL of the posts to which we refer above are now public record and on file)

As I understand it at the moment, SOMO is not scouring the globe for buyers - but is using third-parties (trading houses like Trafigura, Vitol, etc) that are much more in touch with refinery requirements at any time. As the trading houses will demand their pound of flesh, this will complicate the understanding of the Net $M for divvying up between the operators.

Completely agree.

Why on earth weren't the payment details given to stockholders - quantity of crude involved in transaction, price achieved by seller (SOMO?), amount to be paid by SOMO to GKP or SH consortium?

Invites speculation as to why not...

Putup,

Someone posted this yesterday: "Either way, they have no relevance on this bb."

Strange view of life I must say.

The whole point of these Bulletin Boards or Chatrooms is to offer different opinions, views on current- and future performance.

Some seem to take the view that only positive and uncritical views should be listened to and, increasingly, the accusation of being an AI Bot or "doing his master's bidding" is being thrown around.

Very simplistic and childish...

Mahmood Baban wrote an article for Rudaw on 30-Sept-25; it's quite a good resume of the WoodMac challenge. it's a LOT more than just checking invoices:

" Wood Mackenzie has been tasked with reviewing production costs, investment levels, and profit margins per barrel of oil for international companies operating in the Kurdistan Region. Based on this review, Baghdad will allocate the companies’ financial entitlements for both the current and future phases."

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This arrangement will remain in place until the end of the year, after which Wood Mackenzie will issue its report detailing the actual cost per barrel.

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Most critically, the focus lies on the production cost per barrel and whether the $16 allocated to companies as financial entitlements will be adjusted upward or downward in the future.

The cost per barrel of oil and company profits in the Kurdistan Region vary depending on contractual terms, production levels, investment, and field development.

Challenging...