Member Info for Brighty1

Keep your eyes on the ultimate prize. GDR is a lot further forward than it was 12 months ago.

* 1 in 4 adults over the age of 25 will have a stroke in their lifetime. i.e. Global pharmaceutical companies are going to be particularly interested in our stroke test.

* The global stroke diagnostic and therapeutic market size is projected to exceed over $65.6 billion USD by 2030.

* 12.2 million people worldwide will have their first stroke this year. 6.5 million will die as a result of a stroke.

* Over 110 million people in the world have experienced a stroke.

In addition to the stroke test we also have the GDR MT-RNR1 test for AIHL and the GDR POC COVID-19 test. All 3 of GDR's key products are going to be of significant interest to the R&D & M&A departments of global pharmaceutical companies moving forward, especially our stroke test and AIHL test. The main question for investors is will it be a licencing deal or an offer to acquire the entire share capital of GDR that happens first?

Good luck, Brighty

Yes, I agree. The AIHL MT-RNR1 ID test and our CYP2C19-ID test for stroke patients are both BIG innovations in the pharma sector and GDR own them both. i.e. Our IP and technology will command a serious acquisition or licencing price tag. I'm here for the end game.....

Good luck, Brighty

Edben, I'm with you on this longer term strategy. In summary:

* The restoration of dividend payments by BWNG, now that the Allianz Insurance court case has been resolved and the business has been transformed from the Angela Spindler era to the Steve Johnson era over the past 3 years, could also be the rationale behind a defensive ploy to keep the business from a predator.

* Keeping it listed on AIM for IHT reasons rather than bidding for it makes perfect sense.

* Pre to suspending the divi in 2020 due to the uncertainties surrounding the Covid pandemic BWNG in the previous 3 years 2017 – 2020 had paid final dividends of 14.23p, 14.23p and 7.1p.

* The reintroduction of a meaningful dividend at BWNG would enhance the share price and with such a large holding would be significant to the Alliance family (and shareholders in general).

* A share price in the hundreds would be the time to sell BWNG not sub 100p.

* We know that Asda was rumoured to be considering tabling a bid of 360p a share valuing the business at 1 billion a few years ago, x 10 where we are today.

* By keeping an iron like grip on the business probably gives the Alliance Family the best option to eventually make the most of their investment. Selling BWNG now makes little sense.

* The reintroduction of the dividend and a rising share price over the next 2-3 years will make the majority shareholder significant sums. i.e. There is zero point in selling now at a bargain basement price.

* What’s happening currently could very well be a defensive move from Alliance (and maybe Frasers?)

Good luck, Brighty

Lady Alliance has upped her holding to 3.02% today. The Alliance and Fraser buying is relentless currently. Something is up. When we will hear? Takeover or defensive position by either? Good luck, Brighty

Yes and 25p a share in GDR today (MCAP £24m) could be 250p a share (MCAP 240milion) in GDR very soon or in multibag terms x 10 of our share price today. In the sector we operate in £240million is a small amount to a major pharmaceutical company if they want to bid to licence AIHL MT-RNR1 or CYP2C19 or acquire GDR.

Our AIHL MT-RNR1 ID test and our CYP2C19-ID test for stroke patients are exciting innovations in the pharma sector. M&A transactions in the pharma sector for much smaller companies recently have been in the billions of pounds, as per previous examples posted.

Good luck, Brighty

If ABDX can secure retail / pharmacy deals (Boots etc) for its own portfolio of tests under the Abingdon Simply Test range such as Fertility, Health and Well-being, infectious disease, Drug Testing, Strep A, Covid etc this would be a step change for the company. It is clear from the MyHealthChecked (MHC) results announced today that there is huge scope to significantly increase revenue and EBITDA on this basis. Check out the following, below, from MHC today. Can ABDX replicate this moving forward?

* MyHealthChecked will record revenues for the year of approximately £22m, up 34% on FY21 (£16.4m)

* This better-than-expected performance was driven by the demand for COVID Lateral Flow tests ("LFTs") into the Company's pharmacy retail partners, supported by exemplary supply chain management and excellent service delivery.

* As a result, MyHealthChecked shipped over 17 million tests to customers in 2022.

* COVID testing remains the largest revenue stream for MyHealthChecked, and demand is expected to continue during 2023

* The Company has continued to develop its growing portfolio of at-home wellness tests

* COVID has been the catalyst for consumers taking their own health into their hands and acted as a pilot for testing outside of a medical setting. We are in advanced planning stages to launch our extended portfolio of at-home wellness tests nationally.

Good luck, Brighty

Another great deal by Rick Guiney and the team at MicroSalt to supply Giant Foods 160 stores in the US with MicroSalt's new saltshakers. Good luck, Brighty

Lombard Odier Group increased its holding in IQE on Friday 27th Jan from 5.15% to 10.09% .
Good luck, Brighty

With the BWNG NAV at over 70p a share and the BWNG EBITDA for 2023 forecast at £57.5m it goes without saying that Frasers would be getting an amazing deal if they managed to acquire BWNG for less than 70p a share. I can't see Alliance giving it away so cheaply? Interesting few days coming up....
Good luck, Brighty

RNS just out: Schroders sold their remaining 9.98950% holding in BWNG on Friday 27th. Are these now owned by Frasers or Alliance? This is likely to dictate what happens next....
Good luck, Brighty

Those are great posts Beechurst and Adamant. I'm also interested in the fact that BWNG is guiding FY23 EBITDA at £57.5m (as at 11 January 2023). You can see why a potential low ball offer is so attractive. However, you could also see the current posturing and buying as a way of the Alliance / Concert Party protecting their interests. A curve ball view could be that they infact might not want to sell? They have always been keen on the dividend afterall. Perhaps, the jigsaw pieces are about ensuring an iron like grip / hold over the business to provide a meaningful divi moving forward rather than buying BWNG, which would still be costly for the Alliance / Concert Party. It is also interesting to note that the share price is climbing and is up by 40% in the last month. Perhaps we are seeing a play to get the share price up and out of Frasers price range? The SP is currently at 35.25p, up another 10% so far today. At what point does this become too expensive for M Ashley or Alliance to bid......
Good luck, Brighty

The €6.6 Million contract win people are referring to on here- if correct - is a significant material event. The contract value is approximately 50% of the YGEN Mcap. This needs to be RNS’d. I haven’t seen this mentioned in any of the trading updates or circulars issued by the company. If this information is legitimate the company is normally obliged to announce it. If it is now confirmed in the next couple of days it will have a materially positive impact on the value of our company and share price. Definitely one to keep tabs on and chase YGEN’s management up on…
https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:595740-2022:TEXT:EN:HTML&src=0
Good luck, Brighty

Fraser’s (M Ashley) up to 17.88% tonight via an after hours RNS. Things are getting Interesting….
Good luck, Brighty

Exactly. A small £250 million deal is x10 our current share price. We operate in an acquisitive sector where big pharmas pay significant bucks for small pharmas. Look at these takeover deals recently in our sector, for example:
Sierra Oncology sold for 1.8 BILLION to GSK,
Kymab sold for 1.4 BILLION to Sanoffi,
Neogene sold for 320 MILLION to Astra Zeneca,
Affinvax sold for 2.1 BILLION to GSK,
CinCor Pharma sold for 1.3 BILLION to Astra Zeneca,
Horizon Therapeutics sold for 27.8 Billion to Amgen.
i.e. Our IP and technology will command a serious acquisition or licencing price tag.
Good luck, Brighty

Yes, it is a no brainer that big pharma will be looking at both our AIHL MT-RNR1 ID test and our CYP2C19-ID test for stroke patients.

A quick reminder that these are both BIG innovations in the pharma sector and GDR own them both. i.e. Our IP and technology will command a serious acquisition or licencing price tag.

Don't forget that M&A transactions in the pharma sector for much smaller companies recently have been in the billions of pounds:

* Sierra Oncology sold for 1.8 BILLION to GSK
* Kymab sold for 1.4 BILLION to Sanoffi
* Neogene sold for 320 MILLION to Astra Zeneca
* Affinvax sold for 2.1 BILLION to GSK
* CinCor Pharma sold for 1.3 BILLION to Astra Zeneca
* Horizon Therapeutics sold for 27.8 Billion to Amgen

It goes without saying that GDR will certainly be a name being talked about in the boardrooms, R&D departments and acquisition teams of major global pharmaceutical companies at the moment.

I would also suggest that venture capitalists keen to back an early-stage business like GDR will also be showing increased interest in our company now.

20p a share in GDR today (MCAP £18.65m) could be 200p a share (MCAP 186.5m) in GDR soon. When you factor in the above M&A transactions £186million (or put another way x 10 of our share price today) is still peanuts for what we are sitting on.

Good luck, Brighty

Great results from JUST today.

* Retirement Income sales up 17% to £3.1bn, driven by DB sales which were up a stonking 33% to £2.6bn.

* 56 transactions signed off during the year (2021: 29 transactions)

* JUST expecting this "strong growth momentum to carry into 2023".

* Continuing to outperform their guidance, driven by a focus on "pricing discipline and risk selection" plus good messaging to the market about "low new business strain enabling strong growth whilst delivering attractive returns and maintaining capital strength".

* Finally, this excellent summary in the RNS: "Given the strong new business growth, we are confident in achieving our expectations for FY 22 underlying operating profit growth, noting that the increase in interest rates has boosted in-force profits, but led to a lower new business margin. Our performance in 2022 has further added to our confidence in Just's ability to deliver 15% growth in underlying operating profit per annum, on average over the medium term. This is underpinned by our successes in a growing DB market, strong pricing discipline and risk selection, and our increasing illiquid investment origination capabilities".

A very encouraging, upbeat update. This just gets better every year.

Good luck, Brighty

Agreed. This is about turning around the YGEN business. Ranger is on the cusp of hopefully becoming transformational for our company. The focus for the YGEN bod and for shareholders should be the big amounts being paid in the pharma sector for breakthrough drugs and tech recently. They are seriously eye watering . e.g. Kymab being sold for 1.4 billion to Sanoffi, Sierra Oncology being sold for 1.8 billion to GSK, CinCor Pharma being sold for 1.3 billion to Astra Zeneca, Neogene being sold for 320 million to Astra Zeneca, Affinvax being sold for 2.1 billion to GSK etc etc. That's why we are invested in YGEN! What we have been crying out for at YGEN is a better commercial focus and if that is what Andrew Leeser has been appointed to do then it's a very welcome development indeed. We need a turnaround consultant / guru to get a grip of our bod. Who better to do that than the current Chairman of the Institute for Turnaround, Andrew Leeser.

Good luck, Brighty

Quite right. Our 36million MCAP is peanuts based on the assets we are sitting on, especially when you factor in the $325 million paid by Enquest to acquire a stake in neighbouring Suncor Energy's Golden Eagle prospect last year. Our 32% working interest in the Dunrobin and Golspie prospects could be the wild card that people are overlooking with all the Chuditch excitement. We could be over 1p a share soon and much much higher if Chuditch or Dunrobin pan out with a JV. Good luck, Brighty

The recent Alliance Family share purchases look like a probable blocking tactic by the Alliance / Concert Party to ensure that if there is a takeover approach from an unwanted party (e.g. a Mike Ashley bid) it could be rebuffed forthwith. 56%+ shares are held by the concert party now. This looks a defensive measure rather than a plan to take it private. That's the vibe I've picked up. Good luck, Brighty

* 19p paid already, so a 20p+ close today looks very possible.

* The main thing to remember here is that GDR's 3 products are going to be of significant interest to the R&D & M&A departments of global pharmaceutical companies moving forward. So, will it be a licencing deal or an offer to acquire the entire share capital of GDR that happens first?

* Global pharmaceutical companies are going to be particularly interested in our stroke and MT-RNR1 tests. It's worth pointing out that globally 1 in 4 adults over the age of 25 will have a stroke in their lifetime and that:

* The global stroke diagnostic and therapeutic market size is projected to exceed over $65.6 billion USD by 2030.
* 12.2 million people worldwide will have their first stroke this year.
* 6.5 million will die as a result of a stroke.
* Over 110 million people in the world have experienced a stroke.

i.e. The global stroke market is massive. Plus we also have two other very attractive propositions:

* GDR MT-RNR1 test for AIHL
* GDR POC COVID-19 test

Patience is required. GDR is a lot further forward than it was 12 months ago.

Good luck, Brighty