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Exactly. Sareum need to include in the forthcoming P1a results RNS the huge revenue opportunity that they are chasing. i.e. that the global psoriasis treatment market size is currently valued at over USD 27 billion and that the psoriasis treatment market is projected to reach USD 51.48 billion by 2030. Investors would respond favourably to those numbers.....
Good luck, Brighty
The big opportunity for Sareum now that we are a P1 clinical company is that most license deals by big pharma happen at platform and discovery stages.
* The average upfront payment for licencing Discovery Platform drugs in 2023, according to JP Morgan, was $47 Million and the average Preclinical licencing deal was $55 Million.
* Some of the licencing deals over the last 12 months, see below, have been incredible. Could SDC1801 be next?
* Akeso was paid $500 million upfront by Summit Therapeutics in 2023 to in-license ivonescimab. Additionally, the partnership outlines a potential deal value of up to USD 4.5 billion.
* Alnylam received an upfront cash payment of USD 310 million from Roche in 2023 to co-develop and co-commercialize Zilebesiran. Additional development, regulatory, and sales milestones could potentially elevate the deal value to USD 2.8 billion.
* Evotec was paid $50 Million upfront in 2023 by Bristol Myers Squibb. Tiered royalties on product sales further underscore the financial commitment, resulting in USD 4bn potential deal value.
* Kelun-Biotech was paid an upfront $175 Million by Merck in 2023 to co-develop preclinical antibody-drug conjugates. Future development, regulatory, and sales milestone payments, which could total up to USD 9.3 billion.
So, if we take JP Morgan's $47 Million - $55 Million average for a pre-clinical licencing deal in 2023 that bodes well for Sareum's SDC1801....
Good luck, Brighty
SDC1801 has already demonstrated a profile superior to Dexamethasone and similar to Baricitinib. When that was announced in 2021 the share price rocketed. Imagine what the share price will do if we receive similar positive data from the Phase 1a trial underway in Australia....
Good luck, Brighty
To confirm that the average upfront payment for licencing Discovery Platform drugs in 2023, according to JP Morgan, was $47 Million and the average Preclinical licencing deal was $55 Million. That's why we are invested in Sareum and in this sector.....
Good luck, Brighty
The holy grail is obviously a takeover of Sareum for £1 Billion + but in the short to medium term a licencing deal for SDC1801 with a major global pharma - not a Sierra style deal this time - is the most likely. What are the actual chances of this happening if the SDC1801 data from Australia proves as good as we expect. The answer is pretty good if you read the latest J.P. Morgan report on licencing deals in the pharma sector. In summary:
* There were 495 R&D partnerships and licensing agreements in 2023 in our sector.
* There were 115 life sciences R&D licensing agreements signed in the third quarter of 2023.
* There were 108 licensing agreements in the fourth quarter of 2024.
* The volume of in-license deals in the preclinical, Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 stages has remained steady.
* In terms of total deal value sizes, that equated to $8.2 billion in total in upfront cash and equity licencing transactions on 108 deals in Q4.
* Big pharma continues to pay well for clinical-stage biotechs with meaningful growth in upfront payments for Phase I assets
* Phase I biotechs also enjoyed a hefty 42% increase in upfront payments year over year.
* 15 Phase I deals were signed in 2023, which is almost double compared to 2022.
In summary, as JP Morgan states, "Big pharma continues to pay well for Phase I assets". Sareum operates in a multi billion sector. Bring it on.....
Good luck, Brighty
Exactly and just look at the AZ deal last month to acquire Amolyt Pharma, after its data for Eneboparatide proved enough for AZ to pay $1.05 billion in cash, with $800 million upfront. That's yet another $1 Billion+ deal for a small clinical stage company....
Good luck, Brighty
More encouraging news today from N4P, regarding Nuvec and its potential to be developed as an oral delivery system for plasmid DNA, mRNA or siRNA.
N4P are talking up Nuvec being used as an application for Irritable Bowel Disease & to treat colonic cancer.
This is a big market for N4P to be chasing. A quick bit of background below:
* About 7 million people worldwide have IBD. The prevalence of IBS among adults is estimated to be 4.1% to 10% globally, with IBS-C accounting for more than one-third of cases.
* Over 500,000 people in the UK have Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), the two main forms of which are Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis.
* Colon cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. In 2020, more than 1.9 million new cases of colorectal cancer and more than 930 000 deaths due to colorectal cancer were estimated to have occurred worldwide.
At some stage a big pharma is going to take a look at N4P for a partnership as the data is getting better and better. When that happens the share price is going to re-rate. You have to be in it to win it....
Good luck, Brighty
Exactly Damion. The fact that Johnson & Johnson’s Stelara has annual sales of over $7 billion and targets psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and Crohn’s disease and its patent appears be expiring in the next 2-3 years is a very big opportunity for Sareum's SDC1801....
Good luck, Brighty
Patent expiry dates are the big driver for M&A decisions in our sector and the very good news for Sareum shareholders is that there are some very significant and noteworthy patents due to expire within the next 2-5 years, worth billions of pounds.
• Merck MSD’s Keytruda and our combo with100% regression of tumours in lung cancer (2019) is probably the standout opportunity. With reported annual sales of over $14.38 billion the patent expiration is 2028.
• We touched on Japanese based Takeda earlier today regarding our CEO’S existing links with the company via the obesity drug Oblean® (cetilistat). Here’s a little gem for us all to digest. Entyvio’s patent expirations is just 2 years away in 2026. It has reported global sales of $4 Billion and the maker is, yes you’ve guessed it, Takeda.
Another company exposed to the expiry of patents – and who therefore could be an acquirer of Sareum - is Bristol Myers Squibb. They potentially could be losing exclusivity soon of Revlimid, Eliquis and Opdivo.
• Revlimid has reported global sales of $12.1 billion and its patent expiration is said to be by 2026.
• Eliquis with reported sales of over $9 billion has a patent expiration between 2027 & 2029.
• Opdivo, with reported annual sales of over $6 billion has a patent expiration dated of 2028.
Other patents expiring soon and which could prove pivotal for SDC1801/1802 and SRA737 include:
• Johnson & Johnson’s Stelara with reported annual sales of over $7 billion has a patent expiry date of between 2025 / 2026. As we know this is very pertinent indeed to SDC1801 as it is used to treat plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and Crohn’s disease.
• Novo Nordisk’s Victoza, with reported annual sales of $3 billion. The patent expiration date is imminent.
• Novartis’ Cosentyx with reported annual sales of $4 billion has a patent expiration of between 2025 / 2026.
• Amgen’s Prolia/Xgeva and its reported annual sales of $4 billion has a patent expiration of: 2025 / 2026
• Eli Lilly’s Trulicity patent expiration date is between 2027 to 2029. Trulicity has reported annual sales of $5 billion+.
• Merck’s Januvia & Janumet patent expiration date is imminent. Januvia & Janumet has reported sales of $5 billion+.
• Pfizer’s Ibrance with reported annual sales of over $5 billion has a patent expiration date of 2027
• GSK’s Dolutegravir with global annual sales of approx $6 billion has a patent expiration of between 2027 to 2029
• Regeneron /Bayer’s / Eylea has a patent expiration date of 2026. Eylea’s latest reported annual sales are $8.36 billion.
In summary, the fact that J&J’s Stelara has annual sales of over $7 billion and targets psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and Crohn’s disease and its patent appears be expiring in the next 2-3 years is a very big opportunity for Sareum's SDC1801....
Good luck, Brighty
Dr Harry Finch, the co-inventor of the asthma drug Salmeterol, was / is a mentor to our CSO John Reader and is regarded in the pharma sector as a patent's guru. i.e. 50+ patents to his name. Dr Finch, Dr Owen and Dr Mitchell are old school GSK guys. It's why I'm still invested in Sareum. They are proven winners ....
Good luck, Brighty
Exactly Phil and there's real depth to this investment when you dig a little further. e.g. for those that are not aware our CEO Tim Mitchell is the inventor of Oblean® (cetilistat) which Takeda did a colloboration with from Norgine following the Alizyme Therapeutics deal. i.e. Takeda and the close knit pharma sector in which Sareum operate in will be fully aware of how good a scientist Tim Mitchell is. All eyes are now waiting on a 7 am RNS regarding the 1801 trial in Australia and then hopefully a partnership with a global pharma....
Good luck, Brighty
Don't worry Jedster, it's very unlikely. Don't shoot the messenger though about that 6.8p a share prediction by that chartist. I'm just sharing what's out there. What I would say is that we are in for a serious mega gain if the KoBold drill is a success....
Good luck, Brighty
A reminder for all Sareum shareholders to keep your eyes firmly fixed on the patent expiry dates, such as:
* Merck MSD’s Keytruda from 2029
* J &J’s Stelara from 2026 (Big opportunity for SDC 1801 as a replacement for J&J's psoriasis Stelara treatment)
* Bristol Myers Squibb's Revlimid, Eliquis and Opdivoand from 2026
* Takeda's Entyvio’s patent expiration of 2026 etc
i.e. Patents expiring in the next 3-5 years in the pharma sector are worth billions.
We also know that in 4 combo trials with Adavosertib, Keytruda, Gemcitabine and Dexamethasone that the SAR data has been very very encouraging.
* WEE1 / Adavosertib (AZ) for the treatment of selected TP53 mutated cancers.
* Keytruda (Merck) with 100% regression of tumours after 21 days
* Gemcitabine (Eli Lilly) with positive safety and efficacy in anogenital cancer
Plus, we know that in combo with dexamethasone - and I quote - “The Sareum compound as a single agent was well tolerated and there was no change in tolerability when combined with dexamethasone”, quote from Tim Mitchell & Stephen Parker.
Good luck, Brighty
Check out the link below as this chartist - with 31,000 subscribers - is predicting a mega gain for TYM's share price. He is predicting a share price for TYM of 6.8p, rising from TYM's recent lower range / support base up to 0.64p initially and then climbing over time as follows to:
* 0.93p
* 1.84p
* 2.75p
* 4.18
and as high as 6.8p
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQrYurvxS24
In summary, this analyst with 31,000+ followers is saying that TYM could very well be the most under valued share on AIM. Well worth watching this video.....
Good luck, Brighty
Exactly right. This could x 10+ here over the next few months based on a positive update regarding the KoBold JV drilling programme in Zambia. That excludes positive news from other JV's and also Sweden. Before the Storuman project was put on ice in Sweden the TYM share price was over 2p a share. Tym has 2.3 million tonnes of mineable fluorspar. That's not factored in at all here....
Good luck, Brighty
Exactly and I would also point out that Sanofi is one to watch. Industry gossip has it that they apparently lost out on the Mirati deal last year. Fierce Pharma has also reported that Sanofi previously targeted Horizon Therapeutics but lost to Amgen and it also lost a bid for Reata Pharmaceuticals to Biogen. What we also know about Sanoffi is that a couple of years ago it paid £1.1 Billion for Kymab, co founded by Sareum Non Exec Dr Mike Owen. i.e. Dr Owen will hopefully be lobbying Sanoffi about licencing SDC 1801. Sanoffi won't want to keep missing out on deals....
Good luck, Brighty
Sareum is chasing a mega $60 billion annual market with SDC1801. So, don't discount a major player making an approach to Sareum soon about licencing SDC 1801.
When you digest the numbers below they really do make a compelling investment case for a licencing deal.
Data from the current trial in Australia is imminent. It's what we've been waiting all these years for....
* Psoriasis affects approximately 125 million people globally, which is about 2.2% of the worldwide population.
* Psoriasis Treatment Market size is expected to be worth USD 60.5 billion by 2032.
* Around 1.7% of the UK population are affected by psoriasis, according to researchers at The University of Manchester.
* There is currently no cure for psoriasis, but treatment can bring about the complete or nearly complete remission of skin lesions. The effectiveness of current treatments hints at a possible cure in the future. Is this going to be the career defining opportunity for messrs Mitchell and Reader?
A $60 billion market is a pretty good investment case for backing Sareum woudn't you say....
Good luck, Brighty
Don’t forget that patent expirations in the pharma sector are on the horizon for many of the major companies in our industry. “Patent cliffs" are a growing opportunity for much smaller bios, such as SAR. e.g. Johnson & Johnson‘s psoriasis treatment, Stelara, has annual sales of over $7 billion and targets psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and Crohn’s disease and its patent appears be expiring in the next 2-3 years. Great news for Sareum's SDC1801.....
Good luck, Brighty
BA, call me cynical but it's called "mates rates". By keeping the SP low for a while creates cheap Sareum shares at mates rates. They then release positive SDC1801 data & or other good news and the share price soars. It's a win win for those that bought in at these prices who will then multibag probably by x 10 this year....
Good luck, Brighty