RE: To all holders....5 Nov 2021 21:51
As even the most powerful military force in the world has found - it is very difficult to defeat a local guerrilla force who hide out in their native mountains / jungles. The Tigray region wastes centre of power in Ethiopia for many years, a large established well trained fighting force and defensible positions. The gov have had a year to get all the soldiers and hardware together to shift them and have failed. During that time they basically laid siege to the region resulting in a humanitarian crisis. But believe me the men with the guns don’t go hungry, it’s just the poor villagers. The only way out for the gov is to capitulate the region back to Tirgray control and back off the federal power play. Otherwise, if the gig falls it will be replaced by splintered fighting groups who will also ultimately end up fighting for power and this may continue for ten years. I’m worried now and the Harry brush off hadn’t calmed matters further investors. Clearly the financiers want to wait for the outcome before committing. If the current gig emerges victorious in some way, most likely through negotiations then this May still go ahead, any other outcome I think we will have to write it off. All imo ofcourse