Member Info for Brasso3

Forgot to post the link to the Junior Oils Trust fact sheets!

https://www.junioroils.com/fact-sheets/

Looking at it verses share price (Assuming the rest of their portfolio is flat) it is quite linear.

Dec 2018 - £8.3m (4.6% PPC shares), Av SP = 9.4p
Jan 2019 - £8.9m (4.2% PPC shares), Av SP = 9.3p
Feb 2019 - £9.0m (3.6% PPC shares), Av SP = 8.5p
Mar 2019 - £8.8m (<3.3% PPC shares), Av SP = 7.5p

As mentioned above it could be that they have not sold any. We will find out when they publish their April fact sheet if PPC can hold this price.

Junior Oil Trust had PPC shares making up 4.2% of its portfolio back in January. In March their holding is no longer reported as it falls outside of their top 10.

Junior Oil Trust total fund value on a monthly basis:-

Jan 2019 - £8.9m (4.2% PPC shares)
Feb 2019 - £9.0m (3.6% PPC shares)
Mar 2019 - £8.8m (<3.3% PPC shares)*

*March percentage for PPC not declarable as they are out of the top 10.

Is the reduction just due to PPCs share price sinking from 10p to 7p in that time period?

20m shares at an average of 8p is £1.6m just to put some perspective on the volume today.

20,000,000 shares traded today.

1,100,000,000 total no. of shares.

300,000,000 shares in free float.

20m / 300m = 6.5% of the stock changed hands in 1 day.

Share buy backs are extremely rare on AIM.

Why would a company that cannot even afford to pay for its 2019 work programme do a share buy back?

The £6m they were looking for in the placing was not fully subscribed.

Hi Victor

We met many years ago at the PPC AGM/ EGM.

If only I had of sold then instead of throwing good money after bad at this dog!

I would be interested in a Whatsapp group for small PIs.

PL stated that he wanted PPC to be a mid cap oil producer 10 years ago. He is getting there with dilution rather than organic growth!

Why would spending $50 billion on a takeover free up some crumbs in Argentina worth $5 - $10 million?

Chevrons strategy in Argentina is already well documented. They are moving away from conventional oil/ gas and showing more interest in non-conventional oil/ gas (Shale plays).

There was the daily 100k sell but what is more concerning is the 2 x 298k buys that have not impacted the price. I can only assume our selling has more stock to get rid of and will let go below 6.7p.

I presume that you are aware that PPC have license areas that cover less than 2% of the Neuquen basin so to suggest that PPC could discover 5 billion barrels of oil is quite ludicrous!

They are planning on issuing quarterly updates but they cannot do that until the quarter is over eg. post 31st March!

https://www.presidentenergyplc.com/investors/faq/

It has been suggested that the Norwegian Oil Fund may be reducing its position in PPC as suggested in recent news articles.

https://www.apnews.com/27575062be544f7e864dd32feaea696f

That is the problem when you have a strong institutional base. We must assume that around 80% of the stock is with BoD and institutional funds. Junior Oil Trust and the Norwegian oil fund have positions in PPC below the radar of 3%. If it is only one of the small players selling then I can live with that but look at the weight it has on the share price. Imagine if Schroders, IFC or JP Morgan started selling down? Having so much stock tied up is what creates the liquidity problem where no new players can buy into PPC in significant quantity so they do not bother investing. This has been caused by having 11 placings over the last 10 years where in most cases only PL and institutions were invited to take part squeezing PIs out so we are left with crumbs.

fivesights

You are quite correct it was PL that mentioned taking it private and a very concerning statement that was for me. He has 29.95% of the shares and I am sure his family and friends own a fair amount of stock too. If he an a few institutions decided to take this private it would not be at a fair price that suites us small PIs that is for sure.

On the poor liquidity issue. Again that is of PPCs own making. If you keep doing placings and most of the stock goes to the major holders that only makes liquidity worst.

The issue here though and the main explanation for the low share price is that we are heavily in bed with Argentina. The market is not keen on that and until we have more diversification (gas production, USA & Paraguay) I think we will be capped low compared to other South American producers.

Why has it taken this long for other members of the management team to buy stock?

I agree its good news but I imagine PL told them to put their hands in their pockets!

By my calculations they have now done 11 placings since PL came on board in 2009 raising $210m (£158m). PL to his credit has put in close to 30% of that.

With the new shares being issued next week and a share price of 8p the market cap. of the company will be ~£90m and we have gone from having no debt to $30m.

Northern Magic

Read the PL e mail again.

He is saying they wont do a placing for exploration. I would say that he is very much not ruling out a placing for an acquisition.

Apparently this is the text in the evening standard but I have not seen it myself:-

“President Energy has spent the past six days on the funding trail in an attempt to raise $10 million for its oil exploration projects in Argentina and Paraguay. Brokers say the firm is struggling to raise the money as there have been doubts about whether its reserves in Argentina are as big as first anticipated. The shares fell 0.2p to 8.5p. President declined to comment.”

Nicetomichu

PL cannot accumulate any more shares as he is already close to the 30% limit. If he goes above the 30% threshold then he will have to make a bid for the company under AIM rules.

There will not be 2 more acquisitions in 2019 as PPC is fully committed to a heavy drilling campaign in H2 2019 (6 - 10 wells) and has $30m debt already. How could we possibly afford 2 more acquisitions. 6 months back the company was planning more drilling in H1 2019. That was all pushed back to H2 as the WTI price came down this clearly indicates that PPC need to build up some cash.