Member Info for Brasso3

https://soundcloud.com/user-256479804/interim-results-and-accounts-call

Just looking back at the figures over 18 months.

Cash
2018 H1 - $2.0m
2018 FY - $1.9m
2019 H1 - $0.2m

Borrowings (secured)
2018 H1 - $2.4m
2018 FY - $3.7m
2019 H1 - $4.2m

Borrowings (non-secured eg. IYA)
2018 H1 - $18.6m
2018 FY - $26.3m
2019 H1 - $23.6m

Total debt at 30th June was therefore $28m. You can see why PPC cannot afford to go drilling based on the above finances!

Things looks pretty bad in the USA too. ELV down to all time low production and Jefferson island slipped into Q4 2019 now.

In Louisiana, the wells have now been placed back in production after an extensive workover of the highest producing Triche well due to lower oil and gas and higher water flow. This and the historic flooding led to production in the period falling by 42.2%. After the workover, the Triche well, which is considered to be still cleaning up, is at present delivering reduced production compared to pre flood levels. This is down from 260 bopd gross at the start of the year to some 55 bopd gross currently with a similar reduction in gas sales. Whilst remaining profitable at these reduced levels, President is monitoring progress at the Triche well after its long shut-down and workover period and considering future action and strategy regarding these non-core and non-material assets. The Company is scheduled to start drilling in Q4 2019 at Jefferson Island, where it has a 20% operated interest.

Looks like they have pushed Argentina drilling back another quarter without explicitly mentioning it!

28/08/2019
- The Company is focussed on high-margin production rather than production for its own sake. Whilst the current volatility prevails, President has therefore deferred this year's drilling campaign in favour of greater near term emphasis on progressing and expanding its existing gas project. The prices for gas are not directly affected by the Decree. It is now anticipated well drilling will commence in Q1 2020 with an initial emphasis on new gas wells.

30/09/2019
- As previously advised, whilst the current economic and political volatility in Argentina prevails, we have deferred this year's drilling campaign in favour of greater near term emphasis on progressing and expanding our existing gas project. It is now anticipated well drilling will commence in H1 2020 with an initial emphasis on new gas wells.

As I expected very modest results.

- Argentina significantly lower than forecast (4900 BOEPD Dec 2019).
- 10 well workover has taken production from 3300 BOEPD to 2450 BOEPD.
- Louisiana at record low production at 75 BOEPD.
- Paraguay still delayed until 2020.
- No progress with JV in Paraguay.
- Cash down to $197k! (hopefully due to debt down to $4m).

Looks like they unloaded exactly 1m shares.

9th Nov 2018 - 117,428,571
27th Sep 2019 - 116,428,571

Schroders reducing from 14.133% to 13.977%. Hmmm, they are now free to offload another 0.9% without declaration.

I guess its all about risk mitigation and this allows them some freedom to take some shares off the table in the event of a decent rise into drilling or the news of a new acquisition. It could of course be nothing and just trimming down oil stocks across the board as part of some strategic company policy.

What else was promised in September?

27th June
- In Louisiana, the results of the seismic re-processing to date look very promising and it is now anticipated that drilling operations at Jefferson Island will commence by the end of September.
- The first gas compressor has been ordered with letters of intent issued for two more. It is anticipated that the first will be installed and working at Las Bases by the end of September.

6th Aug
- The workover programme is still continuing. A detailed review of the results of the programme so far will be given in September.
- In addition to existing production, President has an estimated net 1,100 boepd now tested, proven and ready to produce, subject to surface facilities being completed, save in the case of the Triche well in Louisiana which is just subject to an ongoing workover. The completion of those facilities will start to be effected, step by step in H2 and Louisiana production should start to be back on line by September.
- Further, additional hydrocarbon production is expected in due course from sub-surface programmes which in the normal course of planning are being re-evaluated and assessed in the light of knowledge gained this year from the Workover programme and follow-on detailed sub-surface analysis. Concrete details of such are expected to be announced at the same time as the Workover review in the first part of September.

28th Aug
- First limited volume gas sales from the Estancia Vieja and Las Bases fields will commence by end September from four wells. This is estimated at 400boepd (2.5 MMScft/d).
- Las Bases will come on line producing gas at or around end September.
- A further announcement regarding H2 projected averages will be made at the time of the announcement of H1 results in late September.

the rig is now on site. Should spud first week of October.

I presume you are both talking about the 2 x 750k rollover!

43 min 21 sec

Touchstone is active in Trinidad and via recompletions and drilling raised oil production in Q2/19 to 1,768 b/d. The exciting upside for Touchstone is its three-well high impact exploration drilling program started this year. The company just announced it found four gas-bearing zones at the COHO-1 well. It will be tested in October and could be on in Q1/20.

The second exploration well is an oil target, which should spud in October with news before year-end. The cost of the wells is US$2.5 million each and they have on the balance sheet US$7.3 million for the program plus their 2019 cash flow of over US$10 million. Production could reach 3,000 boe/d in Q2/20 and over 4,000 boe/d by end of 2020. Our one-year target is 50 cents and our bull-market target is $2 per share. We plan to buy more of the stock over time. This is our favourite exploration idea. The stock traded at over $2.50 per share as recently as 2012.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/josef-schachter-s-top-picks-sep-16-2019-1.1316873

So why did he not buy any in the last 2 years or contribute to the placing in 2018?

ECR will be down to around 6 months of cash left now so Brown had better pull his finger out and deliver some meaningful news flow. Maybe spending some money on shares would be a start! He currently owns 2,977,842 (0.66%) which is about £24k at the current share price. Quite pathetic for a CEO to have such a small stake IMO.

He has of course awarded himself 4m options at 1.7p as most AIM CEOs prefer having limited risk in their investment!

Its a complete gamble to buy now and impossible to put a value on PPC with the uncertainty and lack of communication from the company. We have no idea what production levels are, what the cash situation is and there is the upcoming election in Argentina (October).

I expect production to have bottomed out around 1800 BOEPD at some point during Q2/ Q3. That is based on peak production of 3300 BOEPD (Jan 2019) dropping to an average of 2200 BOEPD (Q2). The company confirmed a few months back that there is 1100 BOEPD ready to come online. Therefore I can see a peak in Q3 of possibly 2900 BOEPD. I presume the 400 BOEPD (2.5 MMScft/d) from EV that is due to come online in September is separate to the 1100 BOEPD mentioned previously although not certain on that point. That would bring production to 3300 BOEPD and may an extra 50 - 80 BOEPD from the Triche well in Louisianna. There is not much else happening from an operational perspective so 3500 BOEPD exit rate looks realistic although 500 - 600 BOEPD of that will be gas.

Hopefully this is close to the floor now at 4p (£50m market cap.). Bad news must be priced in and expectations are now very low going forward.

I have penciled in average production for 2019 at 2500 BOEPD (10% gas) and exit rate of 3500 BOEPD (30% gas). I am not convinced they will now meet the forecast $20m EBITDA for 2019 so will assume $18m is more realistic given the price restrictions in Argentina and the reduced production levels.

I am not willing to throw any more money at this but may change my position if there is some significant news on the 30th Sept. I would rather pay 5p - 5.5p with more information to go on than take the risk at 4.3p.

Hopefully this is close to the floor now at 4p (£50m market cap.). Bad news must be priced in and expectations are now very low going forward.

I have penciled in average production for 2019 at 2500 BOEPD (10% gas) and exit rate of 3500 BOEPD (30% gas). I am not convinced they will now meet the forecast $20m EBITDA for 2019 so will assume $18m is more realistic given the price restrictions in Argentina and the reduced production levels.

I am not willing to throw any more money at this but may change my position if there is some significant news on the 30th Sept. I would rather pay 5p - 5.5p with more information to go on than take the risk at 4.3p.

NM

There is no chance that PPC will achieve its target of 4900 BOEPD in 3 months time!

We do we know:-
- Q1 peak production was 3300 BOEPD.
- Q1 average was 2800 BOEPD.
- Q2 average was 2200 BOEPD.
- In Q3 the Triche well was taken off line (biggest well at ELV).
- In Q3 it was announced that 1100 BOEPD was ready to come on line.

Given that all drilling in Argentina has been pushed back in 2020 there is almost no chance of PPC get above 3500 BOEPD by year end.

Any indication that they are on track for 10,000 BOPD by year end and this will deserve a share price of 25p - 30p.

Drichi

We all would like to know what the hell is going on.
EV gas?
10 well workovers in Argentina?
4 wells at Jefferson Island?
Triche workover?
Paraguay JV/ Farm out?
Paraguay drilling?