Member Info for bransonbull

PS - in early 2016, the newspapers were saying oil would become cheaper than water.....SPs rebounded relatively quickly. DYOR.

GaryDav - sold at massive loss now wishing a massive loss on holders...nice...

How do you think the Middle East is going to survive a price war? vulnerable govts if they are running massive fiscal deficits. All designed to bring Russia back to the table...

Saudis respond to Russian refusal by threatening to pump more. All strategy to begin the Russians back to the table.

As SA needs much higher POO to balance the books, and burned through massive FX reserves during the last crash, they can't afford POO down for too long. Massive policy reversal overnight. Dont forget they were trying to persuade Russian to CUT now they are saying they will PUMP. Long enough to damage shale...maybe. beyond that....they cant fund it

Morning. A few have mentioned TLW - they have 45000/ day hedged at 57 USD....out of production expected to be 75-80ks to that's around 60%....sure it will fall again today but dont forget those valuable hedges.

Saudis respond to Russian refusal by threatening to pump more. All strategy to begin the Russians back to the table.

As SA needs much higher POO to balance the books, and burned through massive FX reserves during the last crash, they can't afford POO down for too long. Massive policy reversal overnight. Dont forget they were trying to persuade Russian to CUT now they are saying they will PUMP. Long enough to damage shale...maybe. TLW hedged 45000 at 57 USD. Relax.

It fails to mention that gas flaring is now allowed as the govt in Ghana took gas from ENI...but not TLW. I half suspect the production forecasts were a dig at the govt. to get them to take action. Then there's the Kosmos recent update that said production had improved with TLW as operator...

Garydav - 10 negative posts minimum on a Saturday. Hoping to close the short prior to results, i'd wager!

not that well researched...blames the coronavirus for TLW's woes as opposed to the more complex reality...of 3 production revisions downwards in 2019 in large part due to the Ghanaian govt. not fulfilling its obligations for gas offtake. Note the actual stuff in the ground is still there....

And the accounting write down was due to long-term accounting changes in the estimated price per barrel which was unrealistic....and not due to corona.

Yes, as in 2016 an oil price crash is unhelpful but ....demand could well bounce back in H2....with 60% of production hedged at 57 USD

Ugandan assets alone are worth over 1 billion and sale of 900m almost went through in August.

I've seen so much scaremongering. Bottom line is TLW has 45000/ say 75000 production hedged at 57 USD. No near term debt due. Loads of headroom. Plus scope to farm down in Guyana which is among the hottest property globally.

45,000 at floor price of $57.28. Source Jan trading statement

https://www.tullowoil.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/tullow-oil-plc---2020-january-trading-statement-final.pdf?sfvrsn=2

That's about 60% of production at min. 57. And it's a floor not a ceiling.

I have a load of tlw shares

Better stick to the ladyboys in Thailand than pronounce on TLW. No debt due for ages and a significant percentage production hedged.

The point of a lowball offer is not nec. that TLW would immediately be sold, it's that it could flush out other parties, e.g. Total. I've seen low-balls, where the SP immediately rises to that level, and then goes on to progress much higher as the old saying goes, flushing out value.

I bet Sammy can't believe his luck. Normally stake-building like this would spike SP. But with TLW's rep. at rock-bottom, barely a flicker on the needle.

Total will not want to lose out to this African chap who has bought almost 10% already. Amazed market hasn't picked up on this.

Wait for the bidding war with Total. Value will out.

https://twitter.com/offshoreenergyt/status/1222057030216814594

Yeah baby

IMOV DYOR. Don't take the denials of a chap buying 10% of the company just for old time's sake. He means serious business and is accumulating stock on the cheap. As am I...

50p open, 60p close

It was quite a good update. Sure, negatives persist as they can't turn around a business in 5 mins. But gone is the arrogance. Cost-cutting and prudence will be name of game. One piece of really good news and this will double in quick fashion IMOV>

Debt was 4.8 billion in 2016. Uganda worth 1.4 billion