Member Info for bransonbull

Fund % short change Date changed
Astaris Capital Management LLP 1.10% -0.13% 15 Sep 2020
Kite Lake Capital Management (UK) LLP 0.92% 0.12% 27 May 2020
Polygon Global Partners LLP 1.19% -0.13% 14 Sep 2020

Yeah, 2 out of 3 are reducing. They've made their pile, need to buy back. Maybe they are NGMS contrarian investors?

I thought BHA Plant had been lynched when confused with Dr T?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311462886_Production_Optimization_Through_Voidage_Replacement_Using_Triggers_for_Production_Rate

Voidage and reservoir management

I'm expecting Brent of average 50-55 USD next year.

The CEO's extension will be on hold by end of this week

CA are activist investors. If they see shorts trashing their equity holdings, they gobble up equity , thereby creating something of a squeeze. Just look at de la rue. Dyor.

Lonestag. If CA average is 7 to 8p, you have just made.a very good argument for their expectations being 3 times the current sp b4 they will sell....even in a worst case?

I've made a career out of under promising and over delivering or was it vice versa?

I need an RNSTranslator. Does this mean there is no way Jose that Kerogen and CWA are going to let HUR go down the water deluge and instead purchase us a water injector? Cheers Mr Bernstein.

You said it would go bust yesterday. Lemonade, you need some CA tonic

Imov

109 m USD was at end of June. Presumably since then some extra liftings ....unless that's already factored in?

I'm really encouraged by this post. DYOR, not investment advice etc.

"HUR is a unique situation. $100m cash in the bank and cash flow positive. This puts equity in a strong negotiating position. If you remember, the likes of Afren and GKP were effectively short term insolvent and even then the restructurings were 'over equity's dead bodies' ie forced Scheme of Arrangements.

A forced equity raise therefore looks very unlikely.

CB's leverage is the extent to which they can block remedial works. I doubt there will be much left over for CB's after commitments, FSPO to mid 2022 and abandonment costs if they run the company for cash flow only.

Most likely outcomes are CB's try to force a takeover or they demand equity conversion option to be reduced to c. 5 - 10p in exchange for sanctioning water injector and extending redemption date.

CBs and equity have a surprisingly similar risk profile since if remedial actions fail, both are stuffed although CBs better chance of salvaging something. Equity much more geared to success"

Great news

If HUR had got OWC correct instead of so badly wrong upfront, and positioned their wells say 50m further up, would we have been a profitable company with a healthy Sp? Are sidetracked still possible, as Nic had suggested?

Hannam seems to say 2p core NAV risked but 8p risked if they can get the water injector going as contingent would slip back into reserves....and up to 40p unrisked (including contingent reserves). So all eyes on funding for, and announcement of a commitment to the water injector which should be pre-xmas.

The co's RNS - water injector 70 - 80m usd - hence, 75 m av. Hannam use the figures provided by HUR

"Hurricane is considering drilling a water injector at a cost of $75mm, a decision on which is likely to be taken by the end of 2020. The earliest that the well will be drilled is Q2'21, which means that the impact may be seen in Q3'21 and could
allow Hurricane to avoid having to choke back the wells given this additional pressure support. Hurricane indicated that around 30% of the contingent resource is associated with the water injection. We think that there could be the potential to produce at 15-20kbbl/d of oil with the water injection in place as it may allow the 7Z well to be brought back into production. Hurricane is still maintaining US$450mm of value for Lancaster on its balance sheet, which requires production of the contingent resources. This suggests to us the drilling of the water injector is its base case scenario."

I'll take 15-20,000 a day in H2 with POO back at 50 - 60 USD thanks.

Hope he doesn't mind me posting as his posts are realistic and excellent.

"Reserves/Resources downgrade was about what I'd expected (once I'd revised the OWC to Struct Close). Also, although not discussed, if Halifax suffers a similar reduction there could still be over 100MM of 2C worth having there. 90% reduction of Warwick also yields a further c. 100 MM (of the previous P50 figure).. So there is possibly 300-400 MM bbls worth going after (assuming of course the much smaller volume of FB is still as "prolific"), and it could still be worth one FFD to get after it. (Remember as a cf. the original Scheihallion produced c.450 MMbbl over its 18 year life, before being redeveloped.)

I'd expected that the market would have already priced in the 90% potential oil reduction at 4-5p so I'm obviously disappointed to see it another 50% down from there.

In the immediate term, re-purposing 7z as the water injector is the obvious choice since it already appears to be at (or even below) the current OWC, and we know it has a very high PI (so will have an equally high II)... and of course being shut-in there would be no loss of production.. May even be able to re-purpose it with very little modification, perhaps even topsides only??? Big problem with this is the "close communication" with 6, so probably need to shut off that major common fracture, or even to sidetrack the 6 to a higher elevation (top of structure & overlying sand)...albeit with a much greater risk of losing what production there is...

Some positive noises from the Lincoln field, especially if we are able to share costs... I'm not sure I understand the relevance of the pressure communication there though since the elevations (Top of Resr & OWC) were totally different IIRC, and communication is unlikely to be via the common aquifer (IMO).

I do agree that it this was an opportunity to get all the bad news out in one go. New management can now claim success from any uplift going forward.

Since I'm now 95% down on my investment, my argument that "it's hardly worth selling now" is even stronger... but that said, I'm certainly not prepared to add at this stage. My shares will remain in the bottom draw to either do or die".

...i hope HUR get their act together.