Maybe NGMS has dumped his load...purchased at 56p?
In 5 years' time any LTH will recall Dr T and FB with a great fondness, provided we get taken over @ 50p
A huge accumulated delayed buy or a dump?
Thanks - good to have input from a brand new poster...with only 1 post to their name...(NOT!) agendas
Planted. I also discerned some movement on Lincoln reading between the lines during Q&A.....is this the pleasant surprise (for once!) that HUR will spring on us?
NGMS - i respect your technical knowledge, but HUR employ multiple FB specialists and use external consultants and the new CEO is a FB specialist...so if they say a water injector is their best bet for now, surely they would've considered where well 6 will be in H2 2020 before saying that spending 75 million on one is their best bet?
Finally we agreed on something. Yes, they may need a new producer on top of a WI. But they made 170m in 7 mths turnover . So poo recovery should allow them to invest...if supported by the big shareholders.
CBs wont get their money back UNLESS they allow investment either so all are caught between a rock and hard place.
You deffo have an agenda NGMS. Neither the co. or analysts think there is a going concern issue until 2022......
They expect to be producing upwards of 10ks / day up until H21 (source: HUR/ Beverley 12/09) and after that remediation measures. Hannam note suggests production could get back up to 15ks- 20ks Q3 or so... with water injector
....the 6 and 4m trades yday. Either TR1 or short reduction by COB today IMOV
HUR's own guidance is fine....i don't dispute it will decline over time...most oil wells do globally. I dispute the assertion it will be uneconomic, as i'm expecting higher POO in 2021. Plus remediation measures.
H1 2020 - 89 M USD revenue but lower production of av. 13,700 H2 2019 - 7 mnths of production only yielded 170m USD...so POO and higher av. barrels will compensate...for lower production...
AV. price sold was 30USD in H1, it's going to be much higher in H2
Blatant agenda. 15ks now from 6. The 17ks includes 7Z too, which is no longer producing. 15ks on natural flow from 1 well is pretty impressive....sure it will decline but not at the accelerated rate you suggest, hence the estimate of 12800 to 14200bopd including 95% downtime assumption.
15000 production a day latest...106 m USD in bank, etc.
"The prize at Lancaster is 0.5 billion barrels"
"Perched not acquifer"
Comes to sthng when we have to learn the truth from DIY geologist/ oil industry sleuths. HUR presenting at the CMD that it was perched whilst suspecting the opposite was criminal IMOV.
That said, still a chance value can be salvaged ....CA wouldn't top up otherwise.
It's not exactly that high compared with industry average. They've explained before that if Brent increases they pay a bit more for AM, if it decreases they pay less.
Whilst the WC is concerning, their av price sold was 30 USD in H1 , in H2, Chaffe stated they expect a small premium to Brent. So maybe 45 USD av. That's 50% higher revenue if same production.. .say 15% less production could still amount to higher revenue H2 than H1
Fund % short change Date changed
Astaris Capital Management LLP 1.10% -0.13% 15 Sep 2020
Kite Lake Capital Management (UK) LLP 0.92% 0.12% 27 May 2020
Polygon Global Partners LLP 1.19% -0.13% 14 Sep 2020
Yeah, 2 out of 3 are reducing. They've made their pile, need to buy back. Maybe they are NGMS contrarian investors?
I thought BHA Plant had been lynched when confused with Dr T?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311462886_Production_Optimization_Through_Voidage_Replacement_Using_Triggers_for_Production_Rate
Voidage and reservoir management
I'm expecting Brent of average 50-55 USD next year.