Interesting hypothesis, ADVFN post25 Nov 2020 06:34
Who knows how accurate? DYOR
"Hurricane's "Half-year Results 2020 & Technical Update" on 11 September 2020 stated; "In July 2020, pressure data from the downhole gauges in the 205/26b-14 well was retrieved, which indicated 20 psi depletion at Lincoln, interpreted to be due to the effect of Lancaster production some 8 km distant. This suggests that the Brynhild fault is not sealing, and that the OWC at Lincoln is likely to be close to the structural closure, as at Lancaster. While limited available data on Lincoln is not definitive, a base case OWC is now estimated to be at 1,846 metres TVDSS (± 50 metres)." The revised CPR, due before the end of Q1 2021, will presumably include a more definitive position in relation to this. To enable the CPR to be updated within this timescale, I would expect that the pressure data from Lincoln Crestal must either have been collected by now or will be very soon. If the downhole gauges at Lincoln Crestal definitively prove that Lancaster and Lincoln are a single reservoir, will HUR wait until the CPR is published before sharing this information or will an interim RNS be released? My expectation is that the latter would happen and it could happen at any time between now and the CPR being published, probably sooner rather than later. My expectation is that they will be able to prove or disprove the linkage before they complete assessing the implications of this so the initial RNS might just state that the linkage has been proven, and that further analysis is ongoing, or disproven which looks less likely to me. If Lincoln and Lancaster are a single reservoir; - Does this increase the likelihood that Halifax, as suspected in the 2017 CPR, is a part of the GLA reservoir, that Warwick is part of the GWA reservoir, and that GWA and GLA are a single reservoir, albeit with a higher OWC? - If GLA and GWA are one single reservoir with a higher OWC, does that help to explain why Hurricane and RPC got the 2017 CPR so wrong? Were the very high Productivity Indexes the result of a massive shallower reservoir but misinterpreted as 4 smaller deeper reservoirs? - What does this mean for the future of the Hurricane / Spirit joint venture on GWA? How do they divide the GWA and GLA oil if it's coming from a single reservoir? - What impact will it have on the recently reduced oil estimates? Will it increase them somewhat, albeit, not to the level of the 2017 CPR? My expectation is that it would. - Were the shorters panicking yesterday because information from the downhole gauges at Lincoln and/or other information has either leaked out or is expected to be released imminently? Maybe all will be revealed in an RNS this morning? Or maybe we'll just have to be patient. I wouldn't like to be short on HUR at the moment. There's a lot of scope to be seriously burned".
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