Member Info for bransonbull

LOL - a brand new poster with a new ID.....telling us on a +++ update with +++FCF and much higher oil price, stable production that it's all negative.

You're short Pro. It looks pretty stable to me. It is also higher up than 7Z which may explain the relative stability.

Good look getting out....you'll need it

How come Dec 18th they told us 23% WC but now they say 26% av. Q3 , 25% av Q4? Either way, rel. stable is GREAT NEWS!!

I know it's a decent RNS, as the BSTARDOS over on ADVFN haven't been whooping about how bad it is.

BRILLIANT news!!

Discount to Dated Brent of $2/bbl in H2 2020, compared to $10/bbl H1 2020, as oil price volatility reduced. SO H1 2020 we know from Sept 11 that av. selling price was 30 USD only. With Brent at 55 USD ++ and only a 2 USD discount that's say 53-57 USD in coming mths

BEST news...WC stable....26% Q3 , 25% Q4 av. that says relatively stable to me, so the 60 odd m higher up that well 6 is compared with 7Z could avoid same fate for 6 as for 7Z? That should tide us over until the sidetrack?

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

It's simply the Italian employers' federation and national chamber of commerce. Saying that you have access to 150,000 customers on the basis that your funding guys are members is a bit like saying i belong to the CBI so potentially all members of the CBI will join up. There are 150,000 members of CONFINDUSTRIA and unclear why SYME would have any more preferential access to CONFINDUSTRIA than any of the other 150,000 businesses that belong to it...

In France, every firm is obliged to belong to the chamber of commerce. it doesn't mean a great deal....

You can tell AZ works in sales....

Jimmy. Shareholders have already experienced pain . The sp is on its knees

There was nothing to prevent British manufacturing from thriving whilst we were an EU member state. The concept of British goods is itself a complete misnomer....as most final goods are dependent on parts and components from global value chains...

Happy xmas after a miserable year due to CV19 and Dr Trice didn't help either.

Dilution ould be disastrous, but it is not always so. Partial equitisation and dilution comes in exchange for debt reduction and new investment. Sidetrack could see us producing a much higher rate at a higher POO. WI supposedly will allow us to access 10 million more.

High risk in execution.

But I have to suspect the motives of ex holders posting....

My questions are : do you think AMGO will get the SoA through? How long will it take to put in place? When do you think we will restart lending? Are you optimistic about the sp post SoA? Thanks

The problem is that HUR not only provide partial info , it is that they have lost credibility. The perched water saga was disgraceful, the CPR likewise. Do you see potential positives then?

Put it another way, the saving grace for equity may perversely be that the situation is so bad for equity AND CBs that all sides have to compromise and teach a deal on restructuring. The RNS makes plain that a decision is needed on whether to invest further as a decision on renewing the FPSO contract for a further 3 years needs making sharpish...if CBs say sorry chaps, let's run it down asap and not renew the fpso they risk a big haircut post decommissioning etc. If they agree to the investments, they also face big execution risks if big equity dont agree to fund further works, the CBs and equity are screwed. So in short, the ship might be at high risk of sinking but if it sinks it takes down all stakeholders to some degree. This is why I HOPE a pragmatic deal will be done that does not screw over equity to extent we have no upside...

Not.investment advice. DYOR

Ps the answer on the upside is who knows....? This may be why more modelling has been needed and stakeholders will not yet commit. They may need to see the new CPR before making an investment decision.
I see a contradiction on timings. HUR state in recent RNS that decision on sidetrack and rig is needed early Q1 but CPR will only be ready late Q1 and stakeholder dialogue on funding only seems to be beginning. Left me confused. Maybe they are dead set on the sidetrack given weather and time windows plus rising WC means they have no luxury in delaying but the WI investment plus CBs due mid2022 require restructuring.

That could be good as it then becomes a gamble on POO and the sidetrack being successful before we will know will dilution be partial with 10m upside thanks to a WI, or will we be wiped out...not for widows, orphans etc.

PI NATE. Partial equitisation. Note the term. This will not be a straight forward D4E game over for equity in my view (it could be, but I dont see it as the most likely scenario). HUR need favours from BOTH equity AND CBs. They may wish to raise money through dilution via an equity placing. Now if equity I.e. CA and or Kerogen cough up, HUR can hardly say BTW we are going to wipe out equity can you spare 50m are they?

Likewise, whilst CBs need to give their assent to the investments, they cannot take all the equity until the debt is due.

So a placing plus CB haircut plus D4E through PARTIAl equitisation is the complex restructuring envisaged IMOV. Everybody loses somewhat BUT then the question is what about the upside?

Ggh Ggh on advfn doesn't think this is a slam dunk for the CBs and he is a CB holder. I dont know him personally but his posts over years suggest a lot of integrity.

Also topped up before the close. 120000 only. High risk but oversold

I topped up. Only 3ks but would be rude not to!!

I topped up. Only 3ks but would be rude not to!!

Hi all.

The Hannam note is on advfn. Can sbdy post it here??

My take...the warning re dilution is necessary...to move forward we need an investment programme. CBs and equity will both need to come on board to avoid catastrophic losses for both. They imply a decision early Q1 on the FWP...

The sidetrack will cost 60m usd but will generate 90m in a year. The wi will cost 75 million but could open up 10m in additional P2 reserves. All in Hannam note...

I think warning to equity was aimed at CA and Kerogen. Fund this or it's lights out for equity.

A D4E scenario with CB's agreeing to cancel partially or fully their bonds could be positive if HUR don't screw over equity completely....no debt and investment in new producers could see equity rerate even with major dilution...all depends on the level of dilution Andy or sp for the conversion. High risk but a sidetrack could see in effect a new well as 7Z would come back on stream?

under the decommissioning carry on until lights out scenario, the CBs would lose money considerably post decommissioning costs, as the majority bought at par when Bond first issued, it comes down to whether CB holders will sanction further investment and accept equity partially or fully in return...a higher oil price in 2021 .....esp if Goldman's 60 to 65 USD comes to fruition may persuade them investment rather than closure is the best way forward. High risk, for sure...but CBs are trapped and aligned with equity in favouring survival over closure IMOv. As most bought at par they would see huge losses if they don't sanction investment. DYOR all IMOV. High risk etc.