Member Info for BradSmith

We have been let down by fellow shareholders who have continually sold their shares below their potential value. And it continues!

Many of us averaged down and continue to do so so it has been a benefit! I put myself in the Doc’s shoes. He must be totally bewildered how his initial interest has not pushed the price NORTH. If it was an Institutional Investor ‘s money the price would be in double figures by now! When TG restricted further requests from him I bet he was frustrated that directors were buying in? That is normally reason enough for an escalation in price!!

I can only think TLOU is virtually anonymous in the country club bars. When that changes hold onto you hats! I have been scared to sell any shares for fear that day was today! It will happen for sure. But in my lifetime is another question? 2023 looked to be odds on favourite but it might be 2024. If Synergen Met announce their torch problems are solved it could be sooner. But the naivity TLOU showed over that bunch is one of the factors I’ll be getting cheap shares next month for my few quids!

Hope it is not "c'est la mort" :O)

My half-pence is that unsophisticated investors are people who do not invest at all!
They are day-traders who hope to buy and sell at a profit within hours, days or weeks and do not give a stuff about who or what or why!

The pension fund is looking long into the future and have a vested interest in their country's progress on energy generation - perfect! For the likes of Winni and me , we are probably hoping to make money in the long term but the most important factor is that we are not risking our hard-earned. I have been pathetic with my choices but chose a very honest CEO in TG and struck mud! Dirt and water instead of free flowing gas - Selemo did not have the dewatering delays that Lesedi has. I never blamed TG for that. And then the Govt screwed the paper work in the convertion of coal based power to gas powered power! TG made a mistake there. Botswana drew up papers which meant the FIRST GAS POWER INDUSTRY IN BOTSWANA was IMPOSSIBLE! Catch 22 - to apply you had to be a GAS SUPPLIER TO BOTSWANA already!!!!

At that time things were flying , good will everywhere and optimism to match. Who would think the Govt would want to go back to scratch over a silly mistake? And from there is was all uphill!
Both Kalahari energy and Tlou had to check and double-check everything and we lost at least 18 valuable months and faith in Botswana pushing power through as fast as possible!

Then the dewatering, then the pandemic , and then the Russians!!!!

We could have been live before all of them , and TG expected that for sure when we were all climbing onto his band-wagon and the price soared to 17p! The board are no doubt more fed up with the delays than we are. No doubt the Russians will stuff us again! We'll get to the point where worthwhile production is achieved and they will call a truce and flood the world with cheap gas prices! And while all that is happening , our investments could be getting 4% at the banks! If you lead my life then inflation is not so important - my mileage is zilch , mortgage was paid yonks ago , and I earn sfa to be taxed! Once my TLOU shares are worth real money there will be a dumping of ISA and taxes on Gas profits no doubt! C'est la vie!

I think so Winni. There is evidence that a costly general placing was not guaranteed to succeed , whereas the sophisticated route was! It was at a cost but I fell fairly strongly that TG has limited the number of new shares to keep dilution down! MM was wary of the Doc's motives but I suspect he is eager to see TG bring this baby through! He is going to be extremely rich for being in the right place at the right time and at a stupidly low price.

TG and the directors have shown a lot of good will towards us by taking 25% to 75% reductions in salaries. They could have filled their boots with cheap shares had they taken full salary - but imho have been honourable. I see no reason why TG will not complete the hat-trick of successful companies with no failures in between! If he had gambled we'd be there already or bust , his approach has been softly, softly! And had he gambled at Arrow and Sunshine perhaps they'd have gone down the pan? I don't know their full history!

I am looking forward to being a posthumous millionaire! And I haven't given up hope of a Hydrogen adventure, and electric vehicles being scrapped with their lousy batteries - the next eco nightmare! On Jeremy Vine show a couple of viewers claimed it was costing them as much to use their at-home chargers as it used to cost for diesel! Electric is a lose lose in my book! And that is without the inconvenience of waiting hours for a charge!

Winni , I think TG is honest and the undersubscribed placing has put a different light on his fund raising for me. Sounds like the Doc helped him out on that , and after the miserable outcome for the 2 year options and the undersubscription I can empathise with Tony not being eager to trust us to raise working capital for him! Did any of you spot the 3 additional wells in 2018 that were being funded. Covid did for them I guess. Sirius was always oversubscribed and look where that got them! I hope the institutions will be looking at TLOU a bit more closely as the TX lines are completed! It will be short term to first revenues and they will want rapid expansions for sure! Good to see evidence of Doc buying at $10 .... he must be so chuffed to see the progress in Africa and the price new placings are costing him. And there is us - expecting to pick up options at 4.4p as a bargain price. Money to money has always been an accurate quip!

My memory is shocking - there was a shortfall in 2018 which was offered to sophisticated shareholders - https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLOU/entitlement-offer-closes-oczuuc51m9dlohd.html

I think I must have missed out on loads of news in 2018 leading up to losing my dear wife in September of that year. Car is in for mot test, so I found last years MOT ! Unbelievably I have only done 700 miles since last April. 23 football matches of a 20 mile round trip is all I will have done of the motorbike by the end of May. The garage has failed the front tyres and nearside rear remains an advisory not a fail - all Michelins which are renowned for micro cracks or splits that look worse than they really are. The fourth one was replaced 2 years ago. I have gone for cheaper tyres (like the 4th one) but I wonder if I am being stitched up. I used to have a Dorset POlice car park sticker in an old car! I used a new garage for the MOT and I think they thought the Police were doing a secret shopper on them because they failed it on on so many things! All 4 tyres (mIchelins) + dangerous steering - it was horrendous!

I took it elsewhere and was told the Michelin tale! All passed! As for my dangerous steering they found the steering wheel bolts had relaxed a tiny bit and the play was there not in the linkage! Tightened them up and the steering passed! Chalk and Cheese MOTS! My local garage showed me the hidden damage to years ago on the 4th tyre - so I suspect he'll do the same again because there was loads of tread on all 3. 700 miles is 14 miles a week - 200 mile return journey to Brighton and weekly trips to the supermarket I guess. No wonder I am so bored. I am a caveman!

I have knocked up a spreadsheet to search for text within a list of RNS (plural).
I cannot find Hemsley, broker , UK to see which one they are mentioned in!

After a wasted hour I then had a brainwave and searched for "sophistica" and up popped this from 2018 which arrived just before Small Fry questioned where the Doc was historically!
26.8% discount? This predates the UK sophisticated deal I think so perhaps it was not in an RNS but in a podcast. It said brokers in the UK were asked to raise the cash from long term shareholders in the UK I think.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLOU/equity-placement-and-entitlement-offer-m4azopaxx694hs1.html

Extract
Placement

The Placement comprises the issue of 24,752,582 new ordinary shares (the "Placement Shares"), representing 6% of the enlarged share capital, at an issue price of £0.0575 or A$0.10 per share to sophisticated and professional investors in Australia and the United Kingdom. The Placement Shares will rank equally with Tlou's existing issued ordinary shares including the right to receive all dividends and other distributions declared, made or paid after their date of issue. The Placement price represents a discount of 26.8% to the closing mid-market price on AIM on 5 June 2018, being the latest practicable date prior to the date of this announcement.

Tony is not the guy I thought he was.

St. Tony would have ignored the market price in a market that has been pretty well non-existent forever! He has upheld his promise that he would not treat us as cash cows and I credit him for that! His options were perfect! With a shareprice of 5p likely to rise to 8p or double figures within 2 years without the pandemic , he was offering us options at 4.4p or 8c - manna from heaven ruined by the devil's pandemic!

Small fry has nailed it from there! TG felt badly over shareholders options which ended up with sfa from them , himself and the board!

Capital was needed to keep us ticking over through Covid and we saw his first private placing with so-fist-the-cats! BPFI and selected UK lth were given a special discount to raise 3.5p for our 5p shares! They were not offered valuable options and raised the money in the UK overnight. That 3.5p should never have dragged the price down!!! I screamed that from the rooftops, but it did not stop complete idiots selling up as if it was a full placing where the price always drops to that price. I do not blame TG for that - I blame the idiots who killed the true 5p price by selling to buy back cheaper - unlikely for a private placing! Since that 3.5p drop, TG and Covid effed us completely!

St. Tony needed some working capital! I expected him to support the 5p price and to put out feelers to ALL SHAREHOLDERS, including us, to pledge our price and volumes if agreed.
Not everyone would partake, very few possibly, ideal because TG could honour his promise to avoid dilution as much as possible by selecting those pledges that raise the required capital and maintain the highest possible sp. Who knows what that price would be - the UK consortium including Stephen Hemsley and BPFI and ASX investors - plus us minnows - might have surpassed 3.5p but I reckon it would not have been lower?

The real Tony , revealing his true self - for some stupid reason threw shares at 3.5c to fellow Aussies, and then took that price for himself and the board members, We were left out in the cold facing a sub 2p price plus full dilution!!!!!

When we came out of lockdown at 3.5p I reckon the price would have doubled! My target of 11p that the Pension Fund paid could and should have returned - the Pension fund would be over the moon , as would most of us!

Small Fry, I don't see the parallel with Sirius - St. Tony is guilty of the opposite! And thank X he has because I think we are lucky to survive. His self-financing ploy has been too safe for me - with the huge rises in gas prices I think he might have expanded the drilling programme and risked financial security maybe by delivering early.
Instead of that - TG has lined the pockets of the Doc , and has averted personal losses on his own and the board through dilution!
The DOC saw that - it is hardly rocket science - and has bought into the company at 1.9p instead of up to 11p! It is disgusting!

Bob, casinos are limited to 35/1 and what will TLOU achieve? 70p is 35/1 for some.
Most of our money is ony 14/1 I'd imagine - but that is 14/1 on multiple spins not one!
36500 spins over 10 years and ever increasing. I'm so annoyed the board allowed the price to drop on successive private placings. 3.5p should have been the threshold! Allowing people to buy below 2p made us look like a tin pot company imho!! A valuation of 5p to 11p has always been my thought. And if it had been kept in that range , we'd be shine as a credible investment and maybe we'd have been up to 17p or more with the poles/wires getting near completion and extra wells in the "pipeline".

Small Fry If you ask nicely , Tony will let you bathe in the dewatering water al fresco?
I hope 500m is close enough to L3 and L4 that L6 will benefit from the dewatering there. That was the norm at other virgin sites. It sounds like the plan to drill in parallel to L3 or L4 to aid dewatering may be unnecessary. I hope that is the case and gas is raring to go!

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/tlou_energy/news/rns/story/x8eo05x

Has a photo

TB, totally agree on the lines agreements. That has been a consistent view throughout , even Moagi adopted it. Now I worry if it was his idea in the first place and we all went along with it :O( - perhaps that was his 15 minutes, as they say!

I suspect the premium we'll get on the price to repay the cost of poles/wires/etc will be spread over decades so it is the minimum. Unless we know what price is agreed beforehand , we'll never know if the BPC are playing fair. TG said 10aud-12aud was available in Oz per unit (whatever that is, joules , therms , kwh etc) if he'd developed there! BUT in Botswana , pre-gas price explosion world wide , up to 30 aud was possible? Might have meant USD but dollars!

He also said discounting $30 was possible , and made that selling point to the Govt? I canny recall why $18 was in my head but I think TG had less than that in mind a few years back

Once BPC adopt the line I suppose we lose the option of supplying the SAPP instead of Botswana? We'd have to build another tx line I suppose? We should know the answers to those questions but do we?

21 pages if you follow the link in the RNS, olda.
https://tlouenergy.com/download/1016/

I raised the price to 3.6c (2p) on ASX , and LSE has dropped below yesterdays 2.38p to 2.266p

I heard the amazing Dr Sabrina Cohen Hatton , a senior firefighter in the UK, use the expression "backlash" the other day. She said it happens when someone you totally respect does something contrary to what you believe they'd do. TG and the Doc for instance?

I think that happened in my case! Sabrina lost her dad at age 9 , mother could not handle the pressure and Sabrina was living on the streets for a while! She decided to improve her lot, and is now a PhD about 3 ranks higher than here firefighter husband! I love her!

Was right first time round! Over the last year comparing 2.38p with 3.5c using the prevailing FX rate on the day, and $10 AUD per commission (approx £5.50) and @ £3 frequent trader rate on LSE ..................... TOU shares should be 3.9c

No frequent trader discount on ASX so flat $10 One deal of £250 buys me almost 2000 shares extra in Oz! FX rates have not influenced 3.5c vs 2.38p
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qPWuCKpB7aO3TUT6FfxxXbXEdxAjzlWF/view?usp=sharing

Morning chaps, feeling a lot better today. No heating or hot water since Friday morning.
Yesterday, Worcester-Bosch visited and isolated the boiler from the new control I installed.
Replaced the two blown fuses and the boiler was working! He left the external wiring disabled and told me I had to get a boiler man or electrician to rewire it all properly!

He said his visit was under warranty but if I called them again I'd be charged £300!

I tried 3 boiler guys , two never called back and the third one wanted to charge £80 plus vat per hour to effectively push two clip on contact onto the "bar" , and attach three wires to the controller - 10 minutes work plus a double journey. He did however tell me which ports to use on the boiler! The wires were still in place on the clip so perfecto! I learned that the boiler was outputting live , neutral and switched live. From there it was simple. I needed to jump from live to the COM terminal and it was done, and the house is warming up.

If you buy TADO to replace a Drayton SCR DO NOT RELY ON THE APP - it is as clear as mud!!
I had a jumper on the Drayton so I said YES to that question - I needed to say NO and even then I am unsure if their instructions were right. Now it is working I cannot find the installation process! Whe the boiler blew it sent me congratulations for finishing the job?

Just realised I haven't topped up to keep my frequent trader status - Paid 2.38p , tonight I might buy on ASX because the price there is less than 2p equivalent. AUD is strong against the £ at 1.8 so maybe not, a 60 day high!

HotB thanks for your post which echoed Liz's thoughts on chucking out 47 years worth of duplication! 2 hedge trimmers, 2 leaf blower/vacuum, 2 wood mulchers, 2 lawn mowers, 2 chain saws , for starters - it is like Noah's Ark! I just hate throwing things away! Since she died I got the old Kenwood Chef working because I could not figure out to use the new one! And then could not find the liquidiser that I wanted to use!

I need to run the hoover over the place for my first visitor since July. It is not easy being alone.

I'm hoping TLOU will fund a gardener and a cleaner for a couple of days a week - because I don't want to break into my savings (75% of which were Liz's cash ISA)! Now where are the two hoovers? A Henry and a £750 Kirby hoover/carpet cleaner I bought when I went freelance in 1985. I spend most of my time looking for things! Liz found it too heavy and preferred the Henry style!

Sorry Winni, I have been trying to blow up my new boiler by swapping in an all singing all dancing wireless system. The boiler has blown one or two fuses and is dead as a dodo in a cold snap that is going to get colder. Why didn't wait for warm weather? Tado say it is easily upgraded by homeowners! My son has it and it turns off the heating if there is nobody in the house, and, conversely, if you out somewhere, you can turn the heating on and set the temperature for each room! The lounge is OK , I have a logburner!

On you business question, I think Minorminer might have hit the nail on the head. He wondered if the Doc was good news or a potential Putin ready to take over TLOU if the price is right! He just has to value the company at a price TG can retire on , and I cannot see him being opposed. My prayer is that there is not a consortium of like-minded crocodiles available to him.
This always looked likely to be TG's swan song. I hope he'd get an honorary role to allow him time to enjoy his retirement, but to also fulfill all his ambitions for TLOU. The truth now, is that this has dragged on too long for middle-aged guys to be able to use the rewards! If the share price was to rocket, I don't how I'd spend the money! I need to downsize on my home, but cannot face throwing the late missus's stuff away, or to even tidy up! I hoped we'd both be able to spend the profits together. A trip to the Azores to scatter her ashes is the most likely. She always wanted to go there , and I was too worried about her medical condition and whether insurance companies were worth the risk. I expected her to outlive me of course, so TLOU was hopefully going to pay off. I took a reduced pension so she would get it for 10 yers after my demise, instead of 5 years! And two months later her cancer was diagnosed. Icannot win whatever I do it seems.

I am sure TG is , in his mind , protecting us from his begging bowl as he always intended.
To have a universal placing is an expensive option, and necessitates the issuing of a huge number of shares to satisfy thousands of buyers! Those that buy in at low prices get more shares but are not hit hard because the price drop x their renewed holding offsets the dilution a bit (albeit at the expensive of buying into the placing).

By have limited offers he can raise relatively small funds with smaller dilution! The recipients are OK but the rest of us just see 800m shares drop in value yet again. If TLOU had given their friends the OPTION price of 4.4p which looked to be a bargain price last time we bought an issue, it would still be a bargain in 2020+ , even more so in fact. TLOU would get more money for less shares and existing shareholders would appreciate the price rising to 4.4p
This is what I would have attempted , and until TG showed another side of him , I was certain he thought the same way! He raised the possibility of "fair play" and tried to justify what he did with Doc! I kidded myself he was under pressure to take the Docs offer but was unhappy.

He thwarted the Doc's request for more manna from heaven, and almost surely gave him less shares than he wanted - but the took the attitude "if you cannot beat them , then join them" so the merry men and Robin shared the spoils and killed our average prices yet again! It was all very predictable once he gave the Pension fund a price of 3.5p when the market price was 5p+!

TLOU should have shouted from the rooftops that this ONE-OF deal was purely for the FUND who had paid 11p previously. AND THE PRICE OF 5p+ was still the minimum we should take!
I was screaming that out but nobody supported me. If we were worth 5p+ , and we were , then the price today should be around 11p now!!! And if we were priced thereabouts raising finance would be much easier. We don't know why it is so low - and we've followed this for a decade!
So new money people do not know how well we've done to get where we are through a pandemic! I still think TG worked wonders - but he has missed a trick imho.

Sorry to be so dismal this morning.
The overriding reason for not visiting this site , is the lack of posts.
For years I have justified my off-topic posts because without them this site was doomed. I find it annoying to load a page day after day if I find no new content! To avoid others being irritated for that reason, I gave them my posts to moan about. And it kept the pages ticking over as they told me so.

Whizzer, TG does care about shareholders and has kept the shares issue to well below a billion. That theoretically should have retained a decent share price. Apart from appearing to be gullible over the future of Hydrogen (he believed the BS that SM passed) which looked to good to be true during lockdown, he has frugally looked after us. And he still is - my complaint is that the tortoise was offered steroids to beat the hare but he preferred to eat lettuce and sleep on the roadsidea after each milestone.

I did noy invest here for my kids benefit but that is how it has worked out. I expected to be earning a dividend by now when I first bought in, with the share price at a level that would help the kids if the decided to sell up. I feel like I let the missus down and it would be nice to know if this gamble has paid off before I join Liz.

Watching so many people dying from day to day is hard, especially so if they are younger than me. We are such a low price I can see why we did not involve the BP and Shell - they could buy us out with petty cash, and TG would lose control. My gripe is the share price at 5p being issued at 3.5p (though the Pension Fund deserved to benefit having supported us big time at 11p) , which was forgiveable. The 3.5 aussie cents price for the Doc was something else!!!! I thought TG shared my view the true value was 5p+ and the sp at stock exchanges was only for mickey mouse sized deals. If the Doc would not pay 3.5p that the Pension fund paid I would have provided him with a push-bike! At 3.5p there would be less dilution - 3.5c or 2p was disgusting.