Member Info for BradSmith

JTD I cannot see much justification for your criticism of the board.
The Botswanan govt are dictating the speed of the tender process and there is nothing any board can sensibly do to alter that.
We have contingency plans to go direct to the regional grid and the board could talk that up in precise detail which could encourage more haste from the government but could alienate them big time. If the latter happens then Sekaname would logically be awarded all 100Mw and be encouraged to add more later on and , maybe, become the leading CBM provider in Botswana.

I'd much rather TLOU were in that position and that is my expectation if we wait - something you seem ill-prepared to do.

Sekaname were quoted as demanding a large order before they'd even get started ... hardly an endearing attitude and not the fastest approach towards the energy crisis. Square Mile Junky thinks we are in prime position for the tender and so do many of us.

Tidd's idea could be right .... we saw a job advert on here for experts in our field jobs to assess applications ... and it seemed very likely it was a government doing the advertising.

Looking for that advert found this excellent summary from stockopedia .... worth reading again if it was posted at the time ... +++++++

TLOU Energy - Botswana - Coal Bed Methane
Monday, May 15 2017 by Square Mile Junky

This is an interesting one. The ranking says it's barking. The story the team are building says something very different. TLOU Energy is based out of Australia and listed on ASX and AIM. The management team look very solid and there is a history of returning large multiples to investors e.g. Sunrise Energy with Tony Gilby..

Botswana is also land locked and imports large volumes of diesel by truck to fire energy plants. The mining activities in Botswana require large amounts of energy. And yet Botswana sits on large Coal Bed Methane reserves which could be used to fire the energy requirements. Having read several parliamentary speaches by various ministers it is clear energy scarcity is a big problem, and that the government sees Coal Bed Methane as a solution. To this end the Botswana government issued a RFP to two companies - TLOU Energy and another called Sekaname which I believe is owned b y Kalahari Energy (Of Panama Fonseca fame). I believe TLOU is in prime position but you can do your own research on that!

Was confused by 2 references to Camp whom I used to revere on another chatroom.
Just found him by logging out ...... because he is in my filter list :O)

Every history entry for Carondean has the familiar tick-tock so lord knows what turned me off to do that.

Perhaps I am biased when I read certain posters ... and I wonder if many of us are.

The Govt must be getting tired of Sekaname holding everything up - their bid, if they ever get round to it, may have to be exceptional for them to be considered at all. If they cannot produce pieces of paper on time what on earth will they be like building a mine and extracting CBM?

"Chesh I want "Divs" Prost SL (long and very strong)"

When folk mention Divvy I think many think of you SL :O)

Sorry, very cheap I know, but irresistible - like the early share price?.

Cherokee, you have to remember that many local people are well invested in SXX including a syndicate of coppers from the very early days. My point is that any mention of anything Sirius is likely to be picked up by walls with ears whence any other company news would probably mean absolutely nothing to them.

That and casual chat from insiders to family and friends could have been enough for the canny investor to foresee a drop and do the obvious sell for an almost certain cheap buy back.

Stop Loss momentum has taken the share price way lower than the RNS deserved (I think - so many numbers!) .
There was no good time to release the news of increased costs, but remember we are getting a bigger, stronger tunnel for that cash. If I was a tunnel maintenance engineer I'd be very happy with the news methinks.

Zippy , same as you - laptop (Acer Aspire E 15 start) is quite old and probably came with Windows 8.

I have spent months trying to determine why my Windows 10 laptop keeps losing Keyboard, Touch Pad and occasionally Wifi after some sort of time-out. My machine effectively dies - even CTRL/ALT/DEL does nothing!

A hard REBOOT recovers most times but is a pain.

The answer?

Find System Power and sleep settings ( and don't bother with mouse and other similar devices,drivers, etc because that is what I did ad finitum).

Instead, find the advanced settings and navigate to your power plan or advanced options until you see Hard Drive time outs for battery and mains power at the top of the options.
Set the both to zero and you may have solved the lock ups.

I cannot take the credit because I finally found the online genius who diagnosed this - I wish I'd noted where to thank him.

Sirius Minerals (Investomania June 8, 2018 Robert Stephens)

At the time of writing (June 8, 2018) , the Sirius Minerals PLC (LON:SXX) (SXX.L) share price is currently trading at around 35p. This is a significant gain from its 23p price as at the start of 2018 and shows that investor sentiment has improved sharply in a relatively short space of time.

The next move for the stock is difficult to predict in my opinion. That’s because investor sentiment can change rapidly and does not always appear to be rational.

For instance, last year the company’s updates were positive in my view. I would have expected them to push the company’s valuation higher. Instead, investors seemed to become increasingly downbeat and this contributed to a fall in the company’s stock price in the latter part of 2017.

This year, the news flow released by Sirius Minerals does not appear to be significantly more positive than last year in my view. Yet investors have helped to bid up the company’s shares to their current level.

As a result, even if news flow is positive and the company continues to deliver on its strategy, there is no guarantee that it will move to 40p, rather than 30p, per share.

In my opinion, the appeal of Sirius Minerals is from a longer-term standpoint. In the long run, I feel that even a price of 40p or 50p would undervalue the company, if it is able to deliver on its strategy.

Its financial forecasts suggest that it could generate relatively high returns, and may be worthy of a higher valuation than at present. Its NPV of £11 billion indicates that it may be undervalued, given that it has a market capitalisation of less than £2 billion.

Therefore, I remain upbeat about its investment potential, but believe that a high degree of volatility could mean that its shares experience challenging periods along the way.

Colm kept the message consistent - not always the case with AIM listed companies.
Particularly enjoyed hearing that excellent progress was being made irrespective of the tendering process and that up to 10Mw was plenty to make a very good return prior to expansion on that supply.
Did not hear anything that contradicted my understanding of our plans ..... very pleased with the podcast.
Still expecting Botswana to ensure they benefit from TLOU's product from the start (and beyond - if the price is right for us) through a successful tender process.
A Brucie bonus is not going to be too long methinks.

a400 there is little point in the company talking if nobody is listening and comprehending.
And if someone does listen and comprehend why should they not agree?

Strong buy was an opinion and a perfectly valid one.

Numpty plan B is to sell electrical power into the Southern African grid from where Botswana could buy it in competition with other countries. The tender gives them exclusivity on the first supply so the optimists on here expect that to be the outcome. Long term TLOU can conceivably supply both to the highest bidder I guess.

Garth, Fevertree have risen from 5 quid to 35 quid , not much different to SXX 6p to 36p.
Not sure what you meant except it looks though my Strong Sell opinion has been taken literally?

The strong sell was my post on the verge of ramping - hard (strong) selling the company rather than the shares :O)

Compared to SXX's progress TLOU's progress is extremely quick.
TLOU gave SXX many years start but still look likely to be in production before them.
SXX have risen by over 500% for the many who bought in at today's TLOU price ..... does that makes grim reading for TLOU followers?

TLOU are hoping to be contracted for 10Mw short term - this could be Virgin bidding to run 3 trains a day on a brand new train route with a vision to run 30 trains a day in the future. Once the line is a proven success with those 3 the extra 27 become a formality!

And that is how the TLOU plans look to me. A strong sell for sure :O)

The Wisdom of Solomon was good to hear.
He was consistent with our beliefs why we are going for 10Mw initially (with higher prices to come in future) and was polite about Sekaname without saying how much competition they are likely to be.
Personally, I'll be surprised if we don't end up with all 100Mw eventually and that will only be the start.

His reasons to invest in a fully funded company with the most advanced CBM facility in Botswana (and beyond) and in a region with growing demand for gas and energy sounded compelling.

Confirmation that we can supply electricity to several other countries outside Botswana gave a fairly complete story.

The next 5 or 6 months sound exciting.

Lordy .... I am in good company it seems :O) .... you wrote this at Xmas ....

<Tidd drops the mic and walks off.

JTD, why oh why would we commit to a price today with increased demand likely to be 43% up in the not too distant future? Supply and demand is why Botswana are paying South African more than they can achieve in their own country and one of the reasons they want their own suppliers in Botswana.

Prices seem unlikely to fall if the supply is not keeping up with demand so sit back and wait for better profits.
The share price is also going to rise - so do you suggest that is a reason to sell our shares now? - of course not - but that is almost equivalent to doing a deal today for future energy production that will raise more when ready.

If we don't deal with Botswana now we will be able to do a deal later because they need the energy and so do their neighbouring states!

If two young football players with no experience of management are shortlisted for the managers job at a lowly non-League club it sounds like some of you would employ the one whose ambition was winning the Champions league rather than the other who merely hoped to become a league team?

I know which one I'd want - a few promotions without going into administration is some achievement whilst gaining the experience to becoming an even better manager.

As to TLOU I disregard the 100Mw talk - a deal that gives us enough security to become a successful power supplier is all I want. Further power is going to have a guaranteed market in the area and not being tied to one buyer gives us the opportunity to sell it to the highest bidder ....

Third event is most likely - both companies will get a share of the 100Mw - why would Botswana want to choose one?
One means no urgency for the winner , with two there is a race of sort with us winning a walkover on early production but for how many Mw is the question?

By the time Sekaname produce anything we may well be well on the way to 2 operational units if not fully operational.

We probably have the lead Seka with both our sites so I have doubts they will be looking at the short term. As has been said before, the demand is there for much more than 100Mw across the continent - Seka want a large order so size is clearly important to them - higher costs over a longer period is potentially dangerous compared to our sprint to 10Mw plus a larger follow up.

Tony's age might just encourage him to make this his swansong and stick with it until he retires (or after) rather than stress himself out going through all the trials and tribulations of another new venture. Assuming TLOU is successful of course.

Tom, what you highlight explains exactly why we had to plan for a second site to supply above the planned 10Mw.
Don't know much about generators so is there some sort of safety standard that stipulates generators are limited to a maximum of 1Mw? I guess export generators describe production units rather than the ones we might be using to supply our own power to the facility?