Member Info for BradSmith

Back on topic - as long as the poles/wires are ready when the power generators are implemented it does not matter when. Funding agreement being in place will restore confidence and we await a meeting between BDC and TLOU board members (I worry that they depend on GG) to iron out the differences. I am almost sure we won't want to commit to a repayment plan until we have a realistic expectation of earnings from power production and distribution.

The other issue is whether 2Mw or 10Mw ($10M or $30 revised estimates) is to be the funding requirement.

The waste of time was directed at Whizzer et al, not you personally, Graham.
Given Covid is alive and well or is it bad, BDC ad Mott have had a meeting as soon as it was possible during lockdown. But you know that was what I was saying.

While I am being accused of off-topic, how about this for keeping fit and coordinating your body. And this is at kindergarten.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1297733114228350976

Graham, are you suggesting the board should have had a military coup and opened Botswana up to Covid from all angles?

That seems to me the alternative to protecting our future customers from the virus and we are doing as much as possible in the current environment.

"The lifting of some COVID-19 related restrictions enabled a recent productive site visit with Mott MacDonald and BPC and activity is increasing across both public and private sectors in Botswana."

What more could they have done? And Whizzer , the board have heard you and your sympathisers when they say, (look at the last 12 words ), "Management are focused on getting the best possible deal either with BDC or another party and are also mindful of our shareholder’s desire to see progress in the near term."
so repeating yourself ad-nausea is not good use of your, or our, time!

Good find MM.

I particularly like the look of this ....

"Tlou Energy MD Tony Gilby commented: “Mott MacDonald have been doing an excellent job and we are very pleased with progress to date. The lifting of some COVID-19 related restrictions enabled a recent productive site visit with Mott MacDonald and BPC and activity is increasing across both public and private sectors in Botswana."

And this ....

"Project finance
The Company is in discussion with potential providers of project finance including the Botswana Development Corporation (BDC) as announced previously. This has been and remains a slow process as the Company awaits a revised term sheet from BDC. Tlou will continue to pursue efforts with BDC to a logical conclusion because of the significant potential mutual benefits in partnering with the Government of Botswana’s main agency for commercial and industrial development.
Simultaneously, several parties both within and external to Botswana are also engaged in discussions for development finance with a view to agreeing a suitable memorandum of understanding (MoU).
Securing this finance is the key objective for the Company at this point in time. Management are focused on getting the best possible deal either with BDC or another party and are also mindful of our shareholder’s desire to see progress in the near term."

Revised term sheet? What are the chances we have have asked for deferment of the cash and repayment schedule, whilst agreeing everything else? I'm surprised GG did not get a mention, I'd have expected him to accompany BDC and Mott to the site visit.

2.24p buy on LSE, and spread on ASX 3.6c to 3.8c are moves in the right direction.

Another quote ....
"Initially, the natural fractures of the coal are typically water saturated. At undersaturated conditions, when reservoir pressure is above critical desorption pressure, only water is produced. This water has to be removed in order to achieve any significant gas production. Dewatering of the coal seam reduces the hydrostatic pressure of the reservoir, which allows the gas to be desorbed from the coal matrix. At the same time, lowering the water saturation level of the reservoir increases the relative permeability of gas, thereby permitting the desorbed gas to flow to the wellbore. Proper dewatering of CBM wells is the key to efficient gas production from these reservoirs. The time required in dewatering stage can last for several months to several years, depending on the level of maturity and moisture content of the coal formation (coalification) itself. Dewatering processing consumes much time and it is not effective for well development time. The problem encountered during dewatering processes is to determine the time of gas began to flow where the reservoir is still undersaturated condition."

I have 50p that says TG could have written that with ease!

Petrowiki quote ....

"CBM production operations

Production operations in coalbed methane (CBM) wells are not significantly different from other gas wells except for one important distinction. Conventional wells typically begin production with high gas/water ratios (GWR) that decrease with time, whereas CBM wells start with low GWRs that increase with time. This distinction requires that equipment and facilities for water handling and disposal be built at the start of a project, which requires significant lead time and capital investment. "

I'm not sure if that supports or denies your claims Apia. But it is what I am expecting eventually.

The gas is flowing - there was a flare to prove it (and maybe still have that flare?).
With hindsight, instead of considering drilling at Mamba, TLOU should have completed #5 and maybe added to it.
My guess is that the flows from #4 were so promising that #3 and #4 were strongly expected to provide enough gas for the installation of the first production generator. The amount of water at #3 and #4 scuppered Mamba in the short term when it became clear production would be behind schedule and the drill would be needed back at Lesedi.

Whilst appearing to most here that this is a catastrophe - I'd argue that if my theory is correct then the additional water makes the case for #3 and #4 surpassing their original estimates by some margin!

Covid and shortage of funds has put us back but the gas is still there and the placing has bought us some time. Time is what we need ..... on all fronts.

The majority, Whizzer, don't post , lord knows what they think, if they think.

We should feel fortunate imho, that TG is depending on BPC for funding.
They are as invested in us as we are, no way do they want to invest in a company that fails!
JPM amongst others would construct their funding so they are ok Jack whatever happens to the business. Just look at Sirius! Effing JPM bring in a crappy precursor in a dead economy which bankrupts Sirius! I honestly believe Botswana want us to succeed and won't help us go to the wall unless there is no other option.

Eric was too cautious, Mr Moagi is on the verge of reckless to make amends for Eric? , BOTH were on our side imho and I blame Sekaname's failure from 2012 for most of our problems.
We are struggling to get 2Mw online, and Sekaname were given 90odd Mw in the RPF verdict!

Which bid was sensibly? Which CEO is sensible - I have little doubts !

I posted this yesterday in response to the village idiot on ADVFN, anyone agree? It makes sense to me.

"Eric wanted them (Sekaname and Tlou) to prove there is adequate gas ..... he surely meant flows not resources .... and in Sekaname's case 2012 to 2019 without so much as one flare was reasonable! That did not help Tlou's cause despite them having two sites flaring and one powering a generator (saving 50k barrels of diesel p.a. for site electricity!)

I still think TLOU might not be too keen to take funding until they are able to use it to advance power production. The sooner we take funds the sooner we have repayments commencing 2 years later. If we are not in production by then, where do the repayments come from?
Covid risks us not being in production in 2 years time .....

Ideally the signed agreement when it comes will defer the actual cash and repayment schedule until we can make good use of it. That probably needs face to face talks, Mr Moagi looks more than capable of seeing it makes sense to both parties UNLESS he wants us to default on payments so he can do a Oxus Gold v. Uzbekistan move and take over our assets - perish the thought! TG is no fool and he will be safe-guarding Tlou against that sort of thing I hope - it makes those meetings before signing crucial. And they cannot happen until Covid rules allow Aussies into Botswana. When? That is why the sp is low?"

Travel to Botswana is subject to entry restrictions

Entry to Botswana is open only to Botswana nationals and foreign nationals with valid residency permits.
Those eligible for entry will be subject to a 14-day mandatory quarantine period in government facilities at their own expense and compulsory COVID-19 testing.

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/botswana

I sold a share on ex-dividend day expecting to buy it back cheaply. Did not happen for 2 days it rose?
I have been expecting HL to rise due to their dividend and decided to switch my funds here when it's price dropped to £17.10 yesterday.

So I did an AUD to GBP deal last night to have a definitive balance in GBP and put in a limit bid overnight at 17.09p - not taken this morning at start up so cancelled the limit bid. Too late! A partial fill went through whilst I did it!

Happy days the price then dropped into 16.90's and I got what I wanted after a fixed quote at 16.92

Surely a big rebound towards 19p will come soon.

And last night CBA (ASX) did drop - I think there are too many people out there who confuse Record date and ex-Dividend date ... bless them! Sold CBA too early but hopefullt HL is going to make amends (and the fx rate turns in favour of the pound before I go back to CBA again).

Damn it, instead of boosting the price I dropped it!
A buy and a sell , both at 3.9c just before mine wouldhave left the price at 3.9c
But did my bid influence that 3.9c buy? I'll kid myself it did.

I've put in a limit bid on a spread of 3.3c to 3.9c @ 3.8c raising the spread 3.8c to 3.9c
I wanted to use up my AUD blance of $83 so need $7+ from my GBP blance to reach the minium trade (which excludes commission so it is really $100).
I'll leave it overnight because there were no takers straight away.

I stopped my Amazon Prime renewal from today. I was miffed that I started the Tudors within my subscription, and a few episodes in they wrote to say that further episodes would be £2.99 each with 3 weeks of that date!

My BT recorder locked up tonight, and I found I was trying to record the same football match on both the SD and HD channels and there was a network failure!

Took ages geeting broadband back, rebooted laptop, hub and recorder and recorder refused to reboot properly. TV lost connection after load message appeared!

Had to do a factory reset and got it going again with my recordings and apps up the swanee!

Coincidence or was it Amazon Prime app that caused network error? So if you axe Prime, please remove Amazon Prime app from you smart TV before the ending date! The factory reboot was extremely difficult because the box was dropping out before the options were displayed!!

So you don't believe Botswana will support us in providing CBM or Solar?
2Mw is $10M and 10Mw is $30M and those estimates were made before our cash from the placing was raised.
I find it too difficult to ignore the Moagi/BERA/TLOU statements that funding from BPC is going to happen as soon as a meeting is possible. If it isn't true why lie about it? Botswana need power and lies deny the urgency for alternative proposals from other potential providers in a clearly open market. Sorry, I cannot swallow that.

Take the blinkers off Whizz.
Just suppose TG did as you suggest and got a distribution network up and ready years ago, AND then Gas flows and dewatering had none of the problems were are enduring?
You'd be ranting how useless they were to not foresee that we'd need much heavier duty poles/pylons/Kvs and planning permissions etc etc

I'm sure that dewatering a virgin site does not take a predictable period or we'd have heard from the experts how long it is going to take. And if they exist TG may well have got the info from them anyway?
And that ignores Covid .........

The options will raise the same as the original placing if they are all taken.
If we don't reach an sp considerably more than 8c or 4.4p within the two years, we'll still be on 525m shares no doubt.
It will be quite a conundrum for TLOU if they need another placing before then??

Just checked my history on here because I thought my latest filterer was quoting me in an early post on here, and wondered how long it took him to find it?
Ironically it was Shanks Pony's very atypical recommendation on an SXX chatroom that got me into TLOU back in the 8p to 10p era (September 2016). I respected Shanks greatly, I think he was an expert in pensions or income tax or something like that and gave me good advice as a special favour. So when he apologised for recommending TLOU , I took him very seriously.

Quarantine in Australia , Non-admittance in Botswana , cash running out within 6 months was a death knell Whizzer.
The placing cash has stopped the bell ringing for a while, and we can hopefully expect news of progress towards the missing link - Lesedi to Serowe connections.

The missing gas flows need to found to make the distribution lines worthwhile. We are missing a lot it seems!

I tried to buy £90 worth of TOU last night from a 3.8c to 4.1c spread and failed at 3.9c limit and again at 4c. I was a bit miffed tbh, I logged in to find CBA have halved their dividend compared to last year's final dividend, down fron $2 to 98c but the share price was $76.6 and I bought at $64.6!

20% looked good and I grabbed it straight away! I expected to pay $10 commission and it was higher than that! It is only $10 below trades of $10k , higher amounts are a % of the trade price i.e >$10!
The idea was to boost the sp on ASX whilst completing 3 trades in August for frequent buyer rates of £3 in Sept.

Last night's $76.6 quickly collapsed to $74 and the chance had gone. At that point I tried to boost TOU ..... quite a late night before I was too tired t watch TOU stand firm and CBA drop. Watching cam girl HottTinaa was pleasurable enough , Russian girls are so beautiful, and have a touch of class. She said, in English, what I do is erotic entertainment not porn! She showed very little of herself except a lovely personality. I am a fan!

She has a Sugar Daddy who took her to a party and went off with the ugliest girl there! She invited the viewers to text Sugar Daddy with a "HI" via her phone and she said she'd forward the messages on, and then suggested two other letters in place of HI , an anagram of "OF" :O)

Time to see if TLOU price or Hargreaves are worth a dabble ....
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Brad Smith Aug 10th

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