Member Info for BradSmith

KE published this aim in 2020 ...... so what were their plans in 2007?

"Develop an “inverted” power generation system where every consumer also becomes a generator of power feeding a micro-grid – thereby saving the need for centralised power generation and transmission systems."

https://keb.co.bw/about-keb/

LPG in bottles delivered by the milkman?

We've argued this before Donk.

Sekaname parted with Selemo not realising the potential imho. Tlou agreed royalties which looks like Sekaname hedging their bet. Imho , Lesedi main may have been adopted for production rather than Selemo to avoid those royalties, in which case it might have backfired due to the unexpected water content? At the time of the takeover (2007) I think TLOU may have been contemplating delivering gas by lorry or Sekaname did not see beyond that?

Dated 27 Oct 2015 .....
"Tlou has a 100% interest in and operates ten prospective coalbed methane (CBM) licences in Botswana. The licence PL002/2004 forms part of the Lesedi Project area. PL002/2004 is located in the Karoo-Kalahari Basin, Botswana, which contains a significant proportion of Southern Africa's coal deposits. The most recent work in PL002/2004 has consisted of horizontal pilot well drilling in an area known as the Selemo pilot area.
PL002/2004 was most recently renewed for a further 2-year term on 1 April 2015. The next renewal date for the permit is due 31 March 2017 unless the licence area is converted to a Mining Lease (ML) prior to this date.
The Gas Reserves reported in this announcement have been calculated net of a Government royalty of 3% of wellhead revenue and a royalty payable to the previous owner Sekaname Pty Ltd of ZAR2.00 per 1,000 standard cubic feet (SCF) produced at the wellhead or 12.5% of the wellhead selling price of the gas produced (less certain transport and logistical costs), whichever is greater. "

Found this on the Kalahari Energy site (Sekaname and Galileo are subsidiaries) and it answered a question that has been bugging me.
"Why did we start on the Morupule seam when the Serowe Bright seam is closer to the surface"
and presumably drier (if water is able to descend from the upper seam to the lower seam, I don't know the geography, they are probably miles apart?).
I am assuming Serowe Bright they mention, and the Serowe seam in our RNS are the same seam? Lotsane is presumably an a n other?

"Only the deeper gas target horizon (Morupule coal seam) has been explored to date with at least one other shallower potentially productive zone (Serowe coal seam) yet to be evaluated." (TLOU RNS).

KE highlight why in this extract ...

"Geology

Botswana contains large Permian Karoo bituminous coal deposits with 4.3 billion tons of proved recoverable reserves. Coal is currently only mined at Morupule for local power generation.

KEB commissioned Advanced Resources International of Arlington, USA (“ARI”) in April 2001 to perform a feasibility assessment of producing CBM from its lease holding area. According to the ARI feasibility study, the main coal-bearing sequence in Botswana appears to consistently have two or three principal coal seams of good quality. The lower most seam, referred to as the Morupule Main seam is generally 2 to 3 metres thick with a second 3 to 4 metre seam (the Lotsane seam) lying about 15 to 20 metres above. In some areas a third seam, the Serowe Bright seam is present but is generally thin (less than 1 metre).

In addition to these three seams, there are additional thin coal seams as well as “coaly mudstones” and shaley coals in the section. Carbonaceous shales of Botswana are considered to be prospective for gas development.

In addition, it should be noted that drilling work in South Africa (by Anglo Coal) and Zimbabwe (by AfPenn Exploration and Shangani Exploration) on similar Karoo coal deposits have also confirmed that Karoo coal deposits hold highly prospective reserves of CBM resource. "
.

There is a reference to it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjG_VB-la7o

For those who've watched it, Deliveroo cut the speech short.
CBM is mentioned bewteen 6m30s and 7m.

Heat Rating: Hot
A Bhuna is commonly a hot curry as fresh green chilli is used without any use of cream or yoghurt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCAfoDct_Kw

IG fixed price sell currently at 3.879p - people reckon these boards are immaterial regarding prices but I have never believed that. Stunned sience and the price is rising - it is not a coincidence. Imho opinion there is no compelling reason to sell or buy , now or the last 5 years.

The business case has not changed it is a constant pro, the cons are all temporary, the gas is there but taking its time to overtake the waterflow, and the govt look to be waiting for that to be corrected, and then there is the epidemic which needs a vaccine that is effective against the South African strain! Astra Zeneca may not be effective, unfortunately the one I've received! Tlou are getting a level playing field presently, long may it continue! The future will change the slope!

"who might put use your cash " was supposed to be "who might well spend your cash elsewhere"
i.e. on other stocks.

Winni, Donk is myopic he does not realise a handful of buys at an increasing price is good news because given the average post on here the results could be hundreds of sells at reducing prices down to less than 2p or his beoloved 1p?

And taking up placings so the company receives your cash instead of a chancer who might put use your cash means paying more than 1p for honourable investors. I agree with your speculative post - he has paid double figures to some lucky punter and then watched his nest eggs fall out of the tree. A cuckoo's nest?

I knew Donk would react to 75% of my TLOU accounts being in profit.
I was continually buying to average down throughout the period that he was tipping TLOU to drop into the 1p's.
The highest price I paid was in Oct 2016, my first time trade in TLOU, at 10p when a friend showed me Tom Bulford's tip in Red Hot Penny shares news-sheet which had so many followers that Tom could tip any stock and his followers would raise the price for him!

Bob's averaged down to 7p which can be easily reduced at today's sp but, like the rest of us, if we wait until TG is allowed to get back to business our current average will look to be a bargain!

MY1, so AVN, SXX, and HMV were employing CEOs who ultimately proved to be unsatisfactory meaning that TG will prove to be unsatisfactory too?Y

Yet, using the same simplistic logic, TG made billions for his shareholders at both Arrow and Sunshine so presumably TLOU will do well?

One of those is true! So if you believe them both, then are you either a genius or an idiot?

My three failures were down to trusting the CEO's every word, HMV profits marginally down (they were catastrophic inreality) , AVN still exist off main exchanges with large debts, and SXX overstretched themselves whilst making noises that all was well (until they were doomed and, too late, only then we were told we should invest more than we could afford to lose)!

Following that lot, am I likely to believe TG without question?

I'd be an idiot to do that - my view is that the business case for TLOU is spot on , and the only thing that has changed over the years is that the case is stronger but drags on for explicable reasons that are beyond the board's (and everyone else) control.
My ISAs are in profit on TLOU on today's SP (my averages are 3.71p and 3.68p) , my nominee account on LSE is on an average of 3.55p but my ASX holding is down (average 8c).

My1, if they had followed your solution and gone for solar there would be one of two outcomes.

1. Success - showing the world how easy it is to create a part-time power supply so every man and his dog follow suit and compete with us. That rat race would put our CBM project, the full-time power supply, back because of the solar distraction!
2. Failure - so TLOU would please us all by issuing loads more shares having wasted a money on failed solar.

So the other route in your master plan wass more wells!

That theoretically would speed up the dewatering process? But would it?
We had #3 and #4 and #5 on the go - and due to what? we are relying on #4 alone until the levels reach the point where gas flow exceed the water flows. At the point I expect arapid expansion of number of wells and resurrection of #3 , covid and god willing! #5 is half done I think and needs a second well?

If they had started solar installation as you suggest, I fear we'd be bankrupt by now and nowhere near producing an income to pay the interest rates to get to that point!

TG sees BDC as as a long term partner with a common interest in producing power for Botswana in the main. I applaud that approach as long as it is achieved. Lefoko is pushing it for all he is wortyh given the rotten climate the world is in, the real world! The only worry I have is that the main players catch Covid - and TG appears to be avoiding unnecessary risks on that front. Get real My1. TG is ahead ofthe game, but cannot change the world currently. There is plenty of time for Solar once funding is finally acceptable to us. And then the competition will be playing catch up on Solar energy in Botswana. Just put yourself in TG's shoes -I'm glad you are not though.

Bob, he could fund the early stages but the we'd have to go through the current problems for further funding. If he is going to fund it all then he may as well have kept TLOU to himself instead of floating it. Before I invested, I was under the impression that TG had invested 28 million in TLOU, but where I saw that I cannot think! May have been Tom's blurb in Red Hot Penny Shares perhaps. Tom also introduced me to Sirius. After that huge loss I am not going to repeat my eyes closed approach with TLOU! Sirius went for the big time so TG is a breath of fresh air with his frugal approach.

TG is looking for long-term funding (30 or 40 years maybe) so he is taking pains to ensure that the interest rate liability is settled in advance and he is looking after any youngsters who are shareholders by getting it all sorted.

His plan is to start small, provide a working model which demonstrate the risks are low for our funders who'll therefore offer a sensible interest rate. Had dewatering been up to the original hopes, I guess he would done a deal at a slightly higher rate than his ideal target (whatever that is)? But until the gas flows and covid regulations allow rapid expansion where is the hurry??????? That is my slant, and I don't have as much time left as many of you! My investment is likely to benefit my boys more than me. By now I'd hoped to be showing a great big profit but I don't see how TG could have done that with the obstructions he has faced. I have said many times, I am just happy that he has not run TLOU into the ground and my money still has a very good chance to multiply one day. I'm too old and infirm to buy the racing bike that I expected to have by now.
My 850cc Aprilia is plenty fast enough after my aneurism.

TG is taking a 75% cut in salary (unrefundable loss for all directors, the others are losing 50% I think) and the full salary is peanuts if he did put in 28 million (whatever it was, it is much more than that figure by now).

Blindly following? I have spent years watching for something that contradicts what TG has stated!
Apart from getting the timings wrong, and he has never stopped warning us that dewatering is an imprecise process, there has not been anything imho of course. That was backed up from various sources which said it could be months or even years for a first time dewatering. BUT large scale dewatering is also recognised as a good sign of large scale gas to follow.

Critics who were bigging up what TG released and then blamed him for not living up to their expectations are responsible for most of their recent cynicism! I haven't seen many posts suggesting TG is on course to do what he has promised - so that is why I repet it whenever he is the object of unfair criticism.

It was a handsone 3.79p which looks likely to be the closing SP.
Lovely to see!

Same as yesterday, a 2nd post unlocked the first! Perhaps it is just my account that suffers.

For the second day on the trot , one of my posts is visible on my history (click BradSmith) or if I log out and start again without a login!
If I login it does not appear! Yesterday it eventually appeared. Are they vetting posts containing links I wonder?

I have been playing with Excel charts using Monday's (Feb 1st) trades.
With so many trades I had to group them into time slots, and opted for 15 minute periods.
I wanted to compare the number of trades originating from software (AT or automatic) and manual requests (off-book or original).

I think it shows the trends with one at around 3:30 blowing the socks off other manual trades.

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode
2021-02-01T15:38:57.227 GBX 1636.229 138866 2272165.763 Off-Book XLON
tradeType 5pRange Time
TNCP 1635 15:30

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MbM2QJPRnofkeqiIvnwnaPud89LPARkJ/view?usp=sharing

Hope it makes sense

I have unfiltered the reformed character because , apart from his condescending Mr Smith, there is currently no reason to ban him. If you are mimicing Lefoko , Donk, I'd prefer to be called the honourable gentleman :O)

Woke early and completed Friday's cryptic crossword in the Guardian already. Feeling happy about that. Was a bit cheesed to see I'd lowered the ASX price until I saw another trade at 6.3c so mine did not matter. I don't understand it but I feel so much better since the jab. I feel awake in comparison to before .... perhaps I was subconciously more worried about Covid than I realised. I know I don't take the motorbike out as often as I'd like because Poppy would be alone in the house if something awful happened, and being in the house with Covid if I was unable to ring 999 would not be very good for her either?

I've pinned my hopes on a vaccine getting Tlou (et al) back to normality so maybe that comes into it too. And the cynics on here being stunned into silence of late helps, hope you are more hopeful now BTS - I have had little or no doubts throughout.

To celebrate getting my Astra Zeneka jab (the one I hoped for) I have just bought a few ASX shares at 6.3c (3.5p) to start retrieving my frequent trader rate for next month. At $10 a trade (£5.50) it saves a few bob buying on ASX rather than LSE (£8).

Not often that ASX is cheaper than LSE so the timing is right.

Eskom and BPC are not helping their respective govts, so a duet from S.A. and Botswana lead singers is not too surprising. Envisioning a rat race for TG's signature once TLOU is in full production is easy to anticipate, along with other local countries maybe. TG is playing a blinder imho - Sekaname might just do a deal with S.A. at a 2021 price , it is unlikely they'll get the same from us! Botswana at prevailing rates of the day/month/year is my hope.