Member Info for Bozmo

Rally continues in Richards Bay Coal. Quarterly API4 futures now trading at $78. Not sure i understand what's driving it but coal is rand at ~1200 isn't anything to be sniffed at. This might now be meaningful again and help us raise the funds required.

Hedge fund shorts were forced to cover today as cost of borrow went up considerably. That’s why we traded over 5.5p. I image this goes back to around 5p so there a 10% premium, or maybe more before the deal is done (if the deal does get completed)

Personally I think this failed as was too big a project for the management. There was also no experience in raising that kind of money, and they’ve appeared fairly inept in communicating with shareholders.

5.5p > 0
And without deal going to zero.

Thanks. Gotta love Glencore. Coal in rand has recovered somewhat. In limbo again until we get this deal done

Richards Bay Q2 futures up $4 today. Premium of $20 over Rotterdam. No idea why.

Coal prices up 1% on Friday. Every fund that trades coal is massively short, might see some decent short covering

Jantand, I wish I knew more. My AGM report is what I know as fact. That was reported here. Hearing bits away from brokers and SA coal analyst , but nothing to hang hat on, think get deal but not sure how it looks. Needs to be done shortly otherwise SA on hols. How’s you? Anything your side?

well M&G have put, from my calculations about $108m into this stock, and Haohao $36m

won't take much from them and a couple of others to get this up and running.

hearing m&g are keen to get this done, am told should all be wrapped up by friday.

I read last year’s AGM notes before the meeting, Last year everyone was massively bulled up having just got the surface rights to Lukin and Salaita. This year, they’re still excited and the very clear the potential is huge but just need others to play the game. It’s always nice to speak with people face-to-face, and having met both of them a number of times, it’s nice to have some form of rapport. “it’s a great project, and too much been invested for this not to happen” seemed to be my main take-away. Positive with an element of caution. I’ll follow up next Friday to see if their meetings with investors came to fruition.

Present: David Brown (CEO), Bernard Pryor (Chairman); Various from Tavistock, CompuServe and one other private shareholder. Peel Hunt and Mirabaud also there to see them afterwards;

Resolutions were passed over 10 mins. Nothing of note.

Last few years DB has made a speech highlighting achievements and outlook, but went straight to questions. I asked a number of questions with the Q&A lasting 20 mins. Both DB and BP spoke with me a bit more openly for 10-mins afterwards.

Summary:

1) Makhado funding:

Funding being looked at on a company and project basis but again it seems a little out of their hands at present. They have spoken to all the top 6 investors over the last week and are expecting them to come back within the 6-7 days;

Bernard Pryor met with Chinese investors in South Africa this week and spelled out the projects, what needs to be invested and given them timelines. Face-to-face meeting with Chinese made him positive and belief something will happen.

Everyone still keen on project. Actual funding required for the project is small compared to what the top six have invested do far. Definitely sounds like the most likely scenario is that all the big shareholders will collectively fund the shortfall. Timing is out of their hands

They still believe it’s a great project and are frustrated by the lack of progress. They would have got the funding from Mirabaud, but the 3-month delay in getting the bond funding coincided with 30% decline in coal prices and South Africa as an investment destination.

Having met with investors BP is positive deal will be done soon, he’s just not sure what it looks like.;

They are fully aware of the summer break in SA and want to get this done asap. Once funding is done then everything is ready to go, can begin building immediately;

What’s plan B if not get funding? Looking at cutting costs further and can sell some assets;

2) Uitkomst is looking a lot better, production higher last quarter and tracking budget with plans that were made now coming to fruition. New management etc taken time to bed in. Development of North Adit is something for 12-months time and will require another ZAR30-60m. Positive on Uitkomst.

3) No huge thoughts on coking coal / thermal coal pricing. Been a dislocate between iron ore and coal. Positive overall. Seemed to think anti-fossil fuels movement has peaked. Positive on Indian/Chinese demand for coal and IRP suggests coal still huge role to play in SA coal generation;

4) Another CGA is on the back burner for the time-being.;

5) Usual chat about GSP – huge project for the next 5-years with Musina/Makhado SEZ etc etc.

Apart from the obvious funding questions etc, anyone want anything specific asked tomorrow?

Yes. I’ve been the last few years, will report back as usual

moving up on JSE

David Brown, MC Mining's Chief Executive Officer commented:

"The granting of the Generaal Project mining right is a further step in
unlocking value from MC Mining's significant coking and thermal coal assets,
positioning the GSP to be a potential long-term coal supplier to industrial
users both local and offshore, including the planned Musina-Makhado SEZ.



The long-term development of the three GSP project areas is complementary to
our flagship Makhado hard coking coal project, also in the Soutpansberg
Coalfield. The Company has made significant progress in advancing Makhado
during the last 12 months and anticipates completing the Phase 1 capital raise
process in the near-term in order to facilitate the commencement of
construction in Q1 CY2020. The conclusion of domestic and export Makhado Phase
1 and Phase 2 off-take agreements reflects the market appetite for hard coking
coal and the significant potential of projects located in this coalfield."

Lost 2.5% down, USDZAR back up around 15-. on presentation of the new fiscal/debt metrics for next 10 years

Well done Jantand, quarterly update tomorrow. All about funding but let’s hope for something positive on Uitkomst numbers

in London

We have quarterly update this week then AGM so hopefully get some info. Company suggested feedback was positive and they had a few options when I spoke with them this week.

(Bloomberg) -- As investors ratchet up their pressure on
coal, the world’s dirtiest fuel, the billionaire boss of
Glencore Plc warned such policies could actually lead to a
shortage.
Speaking at a conference in Italy, former coal trader Ivan
Glasenberg said coal had an essential role in providing
affordable and reliable power in developing countries. If
environmentalists keep pressuring companies to stop producing
coal, there won’t be enough for the economies that need it, he
said.
“If you’re producing coal, oil or gas, you’re the demon,”
Glasenberg said at the Eurasian Economic Forum in Verona. “We
have to try and get that debate in the right direction, that the
two must coexist, otherwise we won’t be able to survive.”
Core to Glasenberg’s argument is that even as coal’s share
of the global energy mix declines, total demand will increase as
the world becomes more industrialized. The International Energy
Association supports this outlook, saying the seaborne coal
market will grow by almost 30% in the next two decades.
Still, coal and its producers are under pressure from
investors and scientists for their role in contributing to
climate change. Rio Tinto Group has already cut all exposure to
thermal coal. BHP Group is planning to exit the business and
Anglo American Plc has been reducing output.
Even Glencore, the biggest coal shipper and an ardent
defender of the fuel, has said it will limit its output.
Glasenberg said the company was required to take that step to
“still have investors.”
While coal use has been falling dramatically in many
Western countries, new power stations are being built across the
developing world, especially in Asian countries such as Vietnam,
India and Bangladesh. Glasenberg said that if the mining world
wasn’t allowed to build more mines to meet this demand, then
some power stations will not have enough fuel in the future.
“With the environmentalists and the pressure groups and the
NGOs and the banks not financing new coal supplies, we’re not
producing more coal,” Glasenberg said. “I don’t believe the
world is going to have enough coal for them. We’re going to have
eventually stranded coal-fired stations.”

10am Friday 22 November. Who’s going?

Coking coal prices fighting back, up to $160 from $128 a few weeks ago. Important at this juncture, they need to sort funding and get building.

Hopefully we have a quarterly update at end of October and then AGM normally in November so we should get some news flow.