Member Info for Bozmo

Hey hedger:

Can look at the following link:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/coal/australian-coking-coal-platts-low-vol-swap_quotes_globex.html

Prices currently $195/tonne, so still $35 (or 22%) above financial parameters given in the phase 1 inputs. To put this $35/tonne into some perspective, that’s an extra $18.9m/year at phase 1 capacity of 540,000 tonnes;

It’s also worth noting that the rand still trading around 14.14, so 2.8% above 13.75 in phase 1 input. Still believe this trades >15 given election/Eskom worries.

cheers

*price of hard coking coal remains robust

I think there’s more selling on the JSE line as a lot more was bought as worse levels than on AIM (recall JSE was trading 40% higher), and think probably seeing more liquidation of stale longs. We’re due holding report for JSE imminently and will give an indication as to what kind of names are selling. But as you say, volumes are small. And as has been said before, we probably need to get offtake agreements signed off, and financing before market takes notice. The numbers certainly don’t lie. The other negative out there has been the decline in thermal coal prices in recent weeks, although the price of thermal coal remains robust

The Rand should trade lower heading into election uncertainty, and Moody’s might downgrade at a later date. I spoke to the company a short while ago and they’re very happy and expect to beat deadlines given for agreements/funding etc.The thermal offtake is with an undisclosed "household name", and DB had a successful trip to London

I don’t really see any reasons to sell. We’re going to start building in Q3 and be selling in 2020. Everything seems to be coming together and no reason to sell. Even with the dilution, still looks like we’re earning 50p/share.Add Vele?GSP into the equation and even more blue sky potential.

I think it’s better than that, when you consider metrics used for hcc and ZAr. Also, even with dilution for $30m, it still leaves 50p/share EBITDA, which makes current share price a complete bargain! I think company are hoping offtake and debt done by mid-May. DB pushing hard

12 months time we should have Makhado almost built. 3-4 years time probably have Vele in production too. Think once 3 conditions are met then we’ll get decent bounce. Slightly disappointed we didn’t rally Thursday but need to tick boxes

Mentioned ‘unlocking shareholder value’ number of times

Well, there’s a lot to look forward to, question of bein patient I fear.

We might get a boost as this project is definitely going to happen. I’m also quite excited about us redevoping Vele and even more so when the SEZ would come into play. I also quite like the phased approach as we’ll start selling coal 1-year ahead of Makhado Lite, and the project only has 2.5 year payback

Agreed. Think we’re in great position. If Makhado producing 450k both hard coking coal and thermal coal by mid-2020 then amazing transformation. When you consider a short time ago at this point we could still be fighting to get our hands on Lukin/Salaita Farms. Chinese taking all HCC and ‘household name’ taking thermal coal then can only be positive. Agreed it will be nice if company provide more details, don’t think we’ll get everything this week as further geological testing, feed info etc. But as you say, quick payback and self-sufficient very quickly. Never forget stock is in short supply here, and would suggest downside limited from here.

Good call 14.50 now. Clear sky on that one now.

I think this is very positive for the company going forward. Obviously would like to produce as much as we can, as soon as we can. This seems a sensible approach and gives in opportunity to bed in and market the company. Still think we’ll be taken over before first coal produced at Makhado

Nice little write up. Phased approach to Makhado. https://m.fin24.com/Finweek/Business-and-economy/man-on-a-mission-20190228

USD/Rand 14.36 from 14.05 last night on 69bn rand Eskom bailout.

Should help

*TIGHTER COAL SUPPLY BODES WELL FOR PRICES: GLENCORE CEO *GLENCORE SAYS THERE'S VERY LITTLE NEW COAL SUPPLY COMING

SA budget today might give some colour on Eskom

Fairly quiet here otherwise. Timelines seem positive if 9-month construction and 3-month ramp up. Looks like a waiting game until results are out on 14 March. Board meeting is 13 March.

Thanks for this hedger. Looks a significant change in timelines

Decent bounce back on JSE also

Look like tree shake. Opportunity being taken up in clips of 10k

Looks like 50k went through earlier this morning - not reported. London trading at a premium over South Africa now. Feels like we’re in no mans land. A month before results and some dets on Makhado

....is about to get smoked. Should help producers

Includes Webcast - will get some details on Makhado then.

Think they would need to spend too much when Construction time is only a year, and environmentalists would have a field day