Member Info for Bozmo

i notice a large buy of 333,960 shares at 596 was reported after the close on Tuesday on the JSE.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/compelling-makhado-first-phase-has-rapid-return-promise-mc-mining-2019-09-30

“The decline in the share price is probably an absence of news from us,” said Brown. This would be restored once the funding was completed and metallurgical coal prices improved. He also expected shares in MC Mining to re-rate when Makhado reached full production.

Webcast at 10 uk time

Definitely a panic on Tuesday but above those levels now with 8% rally in HCC yesterday. Big positive in the rand which is still near 15.

Project going ahead.

That 20k reported as sale but a purchase

We have webcast on 30th September so will get some clarity then

API4 closed up $2 yesterday and Rotterdam $3.15

Given positioning of most hedge funds is max short I would anticipate decent squeeze up. Just what the doctor ordered.

EDF might have to close some of their nuclear reactors for a time. French/U.K. power up 11%, feeding through into coal markets. Might get some shorting covering in API2

Not hearing anything that would stop me buying Allend. Personally I think we’ll end up taking more debt and issuing less equity given the recent decline in sp. Personally don’t mind this as project cash generative very quickly, reduced dilution for the current investors and global interest rates coming down. What other projects have an irr of 42%? Find out soon enough

Don’t think necessarily MCM specific if you look at decline in Exxaro over last month.

Thanks for feedback Jantand. Have emailed DB today, see if we’re still on course for mid-Sep.

Hey Jantand, you’ve normally got finger on pulse here. You hearing anything further? Fear raise at 30p, no buyers currently. Rand huge positive but sentiment and climate against coal

According to Mirabaud research, for a 5% weakening of the rand relative to the US dollar, the project’s EBITDA increases by >14%.

we're currently 12.2% (15.43) higher than assumptions (13.75)

no volume. not the time to be selling. rand at these levels (15.42) makes the project even more appealing

https://www.zoutnet.co.za/articles/news/50592/2019-07-28/towards-the-land-of-smog

Have firmed up over the last couple of weeks, API2 was up 4% on Friday along with the power markets.

Interesting to see how Uitkomst did over the last quarter, both in terms of production and revenue. Need them to have sorted out current issues although fear might need another quarter before they’re resolved.

Things appear positive for the equity raise. Numbers for Makhado Phase 1 are pretty inviting

News out in oz. RNS/Sens out later I guess

$17.5m loan with IDC

Equity funding on balance.

I’m happy to share if you suggest somewhere to upload.

Not available online and they won’t send it to a retail investor. You can request your broker to ask them and they’ll send it

I read the Mirabaud research entitled “Cash Flow Set to Soar” at the weekend, they have a target price of 69p with a risk to upside.

Was interesting to note:

Performance particularly sensitive to price of HCC and the rand.
Risk for HCC prices is to the upside on any supply-side disruptions.

As an example, for every 10% increase in the HCC price, > $70m and 14% will be added to Makhado’s combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 NPV and IRR respectively

For a 5% weakening of the rand relative to the US$, the project’s EBITDA increases by >14%

They see room for a dividend supported by Phase 1 cash flow; distributing say, 50% of free cash flow post-debt service, which would yield 9-10% based on the current share price