Member Info for Bottmzup

Another positive on the chart.... If you set a chart on the weekly candles there is a clearly defined channel between 8.5p and 12.5p over the last year, and closing at 8.5p on Friday meas that we are still within that channel. The intraweek extremities outside that range are just regarded as `dangly bits` or `noise`! Weekly stochastics have also just broken above the significant 20 level. So, with my trading hat on I would definately have this in my `A` list of my ABC rating system, and would be looking to buy some time after the first hour in the morning. If we get another gap up at the open then we are in business. All of the above with one caveat that Greece are voting today, and the outcome of that could spook alot of traders into holding back on any moves until things get clearer. Uncertainty is a powerful thing on the markets as you will all be well aware.

Nice one gfb258, I hope your experience is keeping you in nice cars and holidays. It can pay to be invested long term but I don`t really go in for doing all the fundamentals, reading company reports and all the PE ratios and PEG calculations. I prefer to cut out the middle man and read the charts for sentiment, they don`t often lie really. I`m up to my neck in AIM stocks at the moment and not many are looking very good. Its a bit of a casino and I intend to cash some in and trade the main market when I get the chance, its much more cooperative with the charting strategy because most of them are much more liquid and easier to read, although sometimes maybe less volatility. Its true AIM can be a nightmare, its too manipulated for me, and you can`t always sell when you want to for the above reasons, or buy when you want to at the right price for that matter. Big spreads etc. Good for you with your position and hope we are all in for a decent return on OBT, it does look quite good from here. Enjoy your weekend.

just to add, and appologies if I`m boring anyone... The opposite to a continuation pattern is a reversal pattern. So if you`re holding stock and a definate reversal pattern is developing, then it would be wise to at least put a % of your holding on a stop order to sell if the price falls to a level where it confirms the completion of the pattern...time to get out, in a lot of traders eyes. Which also self feeds. It works both ways and can save you from watching the value of your holding reduce in front of your eyes....and the beauty is that you can then buy back lower if you still believe in the company. If it goes against you and the price rises back above your sell price just buy them back again, and you lost the commision on the two trades and a few pips on the spread. Low risk but high reward if it works in your favour, all due to charting.

gfb258 I`m very surprised that after 20 years you don`t believe that charts can have value in predicting direction. The whole market world uses them, from hedge funds to institutuions and just about every professional trader going. Its all about the balance of probability, and loading probability in your favour, nothing more. If someone does their fundamental homework on a company and comes to the conclusion that they want to invest then surely it would be wise to have at least a basic knowledge of how charting works, ie don`t buy just as a price has risen to a resistance level, wait for it to fall back on profit taking and then buy as the fall looks to be slowing, wait for confirmation of the reversal back up and hit the buy button! Another example would be not to buy if price has risen to a falling trend line, you would wait for a break of that line to confirm before buying. Or, buy when price has fallen to a rising trend line. Alot of successful professional traders use chart patterns, like continuation patterns...flags, pendants, symmetrical triangles, ascending triangles (flat tops) and I can assure you that they work more often than not if you know how to spot them. I`m not talking about investing, because thats more fundamental and longer term, I`m talking about trading, short term positions and then get out with 10% - 20% - 40% etc. If you want to get really advanced then you need to understand supply and demand, and how to spot the areas on the charts where the institutions are buying...follow the money! None of it works all of the time, but what they do is give you prices where you can buy and have a close stop loss to get out if it turns against you, so minimising risk and maximising reward, its called the `set`....stop, entry, target....usually taken at a support level or rising trend line etc etc Charts are fascinating, because of the fact that so many other participants in the market use them, and the rules are the same for everyone. If alot of people spot the same patterns and buy, then it just becomes self feeding, more people buy which causes the price to rise!! The trick is to take your profit early before something causes the price to fall back down, like profit taking!! Then rinse and return for another trade, and some just trade one stock over and over again. I like to use the analogy of a snooker player who`s only good at potting...or controlling the white ball. You`ll never win many games until you can do both, at least to a basic level.

I am more of a techie than a fundie, usually, although this one has been more of a calculated investment, buying the dips while keeping up with developments. Anyway, I was playing with the chart this morning, and I know that this kind of stock is less techie and more news driven, but I spotted quite an unusual pattern on the weekly candles. The last three candles are all hammers, the first one is the smallest, red, the second is green and a higher intraweek range OHLC, but the last week has been huge, its red but the lower shadow is very extended down showing strong buying bias to drive the price to a much higher relative close. One hammer (for those that don`t do TA) is regarded as a reversal sign, the strength of which is determined by the colour, from a downtrend, but to get three one after another is not seen very often, in any timeframe. Also, to the light TA observer, there was a nice gap up yesterday with the daily`s, it was small but nevertheless its regarded as a positive sign. These will have flashed up on the radar of the trader techies out there, and I wouldn`t be surprised if we get quite a good move up in the next week or two, possibly sooner! Higher volume wouldn`t surprise either, and I don`t mean rollovers. If three weekly hammers in a row and a daily gap up don`t produce a good reaction then I`ll give up on reading the candlesticks!

Maybe the 50k buy was FORESTRY closing his short. :-)

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/041702.asp See 2.Open Market 2. Open Market The second alternative a company has is to buy shares on the open market, just like an individual investor would, at the market price. It is important to note, however, that when a company announces a buyback it is usually perceived by the market as a positive thing, which often causes the share price to shoot up. `when a company announces a buyback` So now you tell everyone when OBT `announced` a buyback! They haven`t yet, the AGM vote is so that `if` they choose to do it this year then they have the backing of shareholders, simple. If they do, then you will see a `Share Buyback RNS followed by a series of RNS`s titled `Transaction in Own Shares` stating how many they bought and at what price. I`m a realist, not a dreamer, and I like to keep the chat balanced, not fluffy! I`m also a shareholder that has been building a stake in OBT, in my Barclays nominee account, for about 18 months, and I haven`t sold one yet! Satisfied?

ts247, its only a fact (if what you say is true) that shareholders should vote on a possible future buy back to save them having to call an EGM should they choose to go down that route in the future. As far as what planet I`m on, I`m on the planet reality, and an RNS would be required as its price sensitive....fact! Until I see one its bs! Also, your remark `as your (you`re) not a shareholder`...well guess what, most of the world hold shares in whats called a nominee account, mine is with Barclays! Any `events` that happen would be emailed to me, and I haven`t seen one from Barclays yet. Ok smartass! and finally... `market marked it up straight away so they know whats coming` yeah of course, the City is reeling over this new development, thats why there has only been 19k trades this morning, if there was any truth in it there would have probably been a bit more interest by now.

yes I`ve got a thought, I think that statement, number 8, is a formality (just in case), otherwise there would be an RNS to confirming. I also think that they wouldn`t do a share buy back at this time with $300,000 going to the timber operation, and $500,000 needed if they are jointly awarded the Brazilian forest management project. (due to find out in Q3, so anytime now). Also, look at who posted this, its our resident `over ramper`, and suspected large seller!!! When its in RNS is when I take notice.

Yes, first post.. Just been reading commentary for a few months and cringe when I see how much hope is placed on the forestry side. It is a tough business. I own no shares and have no interest in Obtala. Just a crazy value ... in my opinion. FORESTRY *************************** You own no shares, yet you thought you would join LSE a week ago then just `pop in` for a chat, and talk down the company`s forestry value???? Hmmm, so how is your short doing, what price did you get? You say you don`t `own` shares in Obtala, well you don`t have to to go short, you sell somebody elses then buy them back lower and close your position, well thats how shorting works anyway, if you called it right that is! But of course todays move up has spooked you into `popping in` for a chat! Hilarious!

They way I read it is they are not too sure how they want to lay out the dividend yet. Dodger But that doesn`t guarantee there will be a dividend!!! Does it? They are assessing the viability of an `in part` allotment! What if their partner, Kishugu Int Holdings Ltd, don`t want to go down that road and they are just suggesting it at this time to see how they feel about it? This from the RNS in March.... On the 16 December, Obtala announced that it was seeking partners to enable a significant increase in its timber production and an expansion of the related marketing of its timber products. The Company can now confirm that Kishugu International Holdings Ltd ("the Operator") will become that partner to the Obtala projects in Mozambique. It could be just a spin off company jointly owned that we get a small amount of free shares to keep us involved. My point is we don`t know yet, so it would be wrong to think on the lines that we will get a decent dividend!

This is what they said in the results... Timber plan: reorganise and divest the forestry division, assess the viability of a stock allocation in part via a dividend in-Specie to existing Obtala shareholders. So its.... `assess the viability of`.... not, `we are in the process of`....sorry to pee on the fireworks of those that are already calculating the done deal but its not guaranteed. They are in the process of assessing whether it would be viable, the wording would have been considered.

I`ve been highlighting a few negatives on here today so thought it would be time balancing with a few good positives aswell. The main one for me is that they generate their own income and have categorically stated that they do not intend to go to the market for additional funding, they don`t need to, and with revenue climbing by 271% their cashflow is excellent. Their operating costs have fallen as stated in the results. Their growth rate is very strong. They have all but done away with other investments ie Paragon, so thats history and they can now focus on their own businesses. They have recently appointed some very smart people with good records to move things forward... Steven Murphy....Executive deputy Chairman Julie Dedman.... and her team of food experts as a consultant and strategic partner to provide services for the facilitation of the route to market for various food products. and, Emma Priestly...Executive Director, with `a wealth of experience in the agricultural and related logistics sector in Africa` This company will rise into something quite significant in my view, thats why I`m still invested, its just been frustrating lately as I can be impatient. I`m hoping balloons point will materialise in that they decided to now overestimate the time frame for the certificates, and they arrive in weeks rather than months...now that would be a cute move.

Frank has alot of shares in OBT so whatever he does it will add value to the existing company. Sorry Dodger, I really don`t want you to think that I`m having a go at you personally, but you`ve just given a perfect example of some of the mistakes, I, and many others have made in the markets. To say `whatever he does` and `it will` add value just means that you have fully bought in to him! As much as I liked seeing him perform in the recently posted (on here) presentation I was disappointed with the certification thing and how the market might think of him in a slightly different light. He was charismatic, funny, and seemed to totally believe in the strategy for OBT. Great. Now look at these discussions today, nobody really knows whats coming next and to alot of strict investors/traders thats a red flag! Don`t forget, this isn`t a big company, and at this time it seems a bit fragmented and confusing to onlookers who think, maybe later but I`ll leave it for now until things become clearer. Bigger company Chairman with larger shareholdings have failed before. and they will again. All I`m saying is it pays to question things and be a bit cautious.

I have emailed OBT to see if I can find out how long can we expect them to release the divest news. Good luck with that one then Dodger133, you don`t seriously believe that you`re going to get a reply that directly answers that question...do you?

So why haven`t they increased the spread here and made it `look` like a rise, instead of a 5% fall in the mid? Good progress in results and early buying. I rest my case. You won`t convince me its not corrupt, seen it too many times.

Plenty of other stocks up today, just look on the risers and fallers. Greece defaulting today already factored in, referendum on Sunday. All early trades here were buys, I did a dummy and quoted same price, so just AIM manipulation.....again! ^^%*ing gangsters!

Same old sp reaction...this is run by the mafia!

Niceone niceone! Brilliant presentation and about as honest and relaxed as any you`re likely to see on an AIM company, I hope results are as good as possible for them and for us PI`s. I`d love to have a crystal ball and see what OBT are going to be worth in 2 or 3 years! Great investment opportunity at these prices and as he said in the video `largely overlooked` by some parts of the market.....so far!

yes huds75, I don`t know about you but I was expecting this sort of thing to happen pre results, these moves `can` be false dawns but I don`t think it is here, too many positives and way undervalued.