The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
Fair enough - but politics there is what has held Tlou / CBM back in my opinion.
Given there is no onshore gas industry in S Africa, is maybe a little surprising you thought Botswana would be able to start a whole new industry in that part of the world. But then the diamond sector there has made the locals feeling priviledged and basically lazy. That was easy money for most there in the 80s and 90s. Was talking to a guy recently who worked and lived in Bots then - Gaborone, Francistown, Selebi Phikwe and lived in Phakalane Golf Resort (the good old days). He despairs at how lazy and corrupt the system there is now.
What i know Brad is how 2-faced folks on this board behave often. There is a clear and obvious history of failed rights issues and poor take-ups on others. Totally ignored when it suits the argument at the time.
Issued shares 1.25 billion. Issued on fully diluted basis calculated roughly as US$5m (equiv A$7.5m) Pension Fund and A$5m Doc x interest for 3 years at 10% converted to equity at 3.5 cents aussie would result in between 450m and 500m shares being issued. It's not a difficult sum to estimate. So Issued shares will, in time, be pushing towards 2.0 billion.
You keep talking about Sekaname and try come across as 'expert witness'. Most of what you say is opinion, supposition, theoretical. They cannot be useless - otherwise why would TG have come across to Botswana, talked to them and bought out the leases that Sekaname were selling..... Sekaname had huge land mass under exploration for CBM, and to generate cash over the years sold down leases they had spent money exploring. The results of that work on those leases sold would be the basis on which TG and others would have agreed a price to Buy.
Tlou and Sekaname were both messed around in first tender; to suggest that Sekaname somehow influenced Ministry decisions at that time is simply your over-stimulated imagination. Both were awarded Preferred Bidder status and presumably since then both have ben trying to deliver their project. Tlou are ahead with their project; Sekaname have their 6MW PPA and presumably are working to deliver that as fast (or slow) as they can or are allowed.
I would not accept your proposition that Tlou would be much further along were Sekaname not in the picture. To think that makes zero sense to me; it presupposes that Sekaname (who were CBM pioneers in Botswana from 2003) have been deliberately progressing their story as slowly as possible, to the detriment of their shareholders (whoever they might be). And the one thing I remember from their BPC signing ceremony was that Minister Moagi was joined at the ceremony by 2 other Ministers (one of whom's son is the MD of Sekaname).
But then it has been said live in a shoebox in Doncaster and stack shelves implying that I could not possibly know anything about anything or anyone associated with CBM in Botswana. We are all entitled to our points of view. I look forward to the day when somebody appears on this board and wants to have meaningful and informed conversations about Botswana and politics and gas to power and corruption and real problems there which cause project delays to Tlou and many other mining projects there.
Apparently it is really easy for Tlou to arrange funding
More quality content from Cloo - that would be 50-plus times he posted the same runny mess. Nappy pants for him then.
See here is the thing Winni. You guys dont have a balanced view of Tlou since you are pretty clueless about reality of life on the ground there. Trotting out your view of the opportunity there from a western eyes mindset means you keep trotting out the same old rubbish.
Cloo - try and show some originality. I used to thing Brad was the sad case here. At least he offers a point of view even if i seldom agree with it.
Why?
Elections in S Africa showing the ANC are routed so eyes are looking south to see how the power balance shifts. That takes time.
Anglo is restructuring and divesting De Beers business. This is fraught with concern for Debswana and Govt of Bots, given the recent $6 billion USD investment necessary to prolong life of Jwaneng diamond mine. And that is just 1 mine; there is Orapa and a few other smaller kimberlites. When the diamond industry sneezes, Botswana economy is badly affected, meaning budget revenues are reduced meaning bigger budget deficits meaning even less money washing around Govt coffers (after all the usual suspects take out their cuts) meaning BPC and other parastatals will delay payments even more meaning = any good news there is diluted and inconsequential.
And the real reason nothing important gets decided for remainder of this year (and at least Qtr 1 next) - Elections ahead in Botswana in October and already significant bickering over rules and voter registrations. IEC are being called corrupt body by Botswana opposition who clearly are taking the Trump view of being an opposition party (complain about everything.)
Masisi and Moagi are in Las Vegas this week for a diamond jamboree; then they need a week to recover, then electioneering for BDP primaries in mid-June for a month, and yada yada yada.
But the great news ahead to look forward to is - Tlou completing a sub-station construction and maybe injecting 2MW of CBM feedstock electricity. Thats going to change the country, lift the overall mood, get everybody talking, reshape the energy landscape in southern africa for sure.
Kumbaya my lord, kumbaya
My days are not complete unless I am taking abuse from all the clever, long-term supportive shareholders here who continue to hold hands and sing kumbaya while sitting round the campfires. Their cult like adoration of the progress here is a thing of beauty.
Break over again.
Https://www.sundaystandard.info/suppliers-owed-p1-3-billion-in-payments-due-to-gabs-system-failure/
Maybe i read newspapers; maybe I know people in business in Gabs/ Bots; maybe I like in Gabs /Bots myself; maybe I chat on whatsapp to friends or family or both there; maybe maybe maybe. The only thing that isnt maybe - is you and Clooless are childish and dull and pretty pathetic if truth be told. At least with Brad, we know what we are going to get - so if you want somebody to justify his opinions and statements, go start there.
PS share price continues to underperform, same as management team, same as the cheerleaders on this site. How many more years before you realise how completely suckered you and yer mates have been.
PPS I love the abuse you give me. It makes me relevant; it means you guys focus on me rather than the utter pathetic non-performance of the company and share price of the company you all promote and waffle endlessly about. TG is great; Bots is great; the Doc and BPOPS wont let the company fail; .... and all the while .... after how many years now .... the share price is still in the Lower Basement / or as Brad would say Bargain Bucket territory.
PPPS your investment is performing, and always has performed, utter desperately. And still you idiots wax lyrically about it.
OK my break over now, need to get back to stacking the shelves.
More winni quality i see - back week was it old chum?
You dont know so i could not possibly know. And Doncaster and Bradford and stacking shelves - my own my what a class conscious twat you are. Are you proud of yerself - go ask yer Mum for validation.
Madness, utter madness. You guys are all living in lah lah land.
If this was such an important project, why has Govt done everything possible to delay CBM progressing there?
Is TG the most persevering and dedicated CEO in living history or has his star magic turned to silica?
Private sector contractors and suppliers in Botswana are getting squeezed almost out of existence due to Govt lack of cash to keep up with their payments obligations. I cant prove it to you on a message board - but it is reality down there.
Blame Kalahari - you have no grounds to say this other than personal opinion - which you are entitled to. Explain your logic please and maybe it informs us better.
And while on that, you mentioned in previous post pricing of $30 - where does that come from and how does it translate to Revenue potential? Provide assumptions to your maths ie selling price per kilowatt hour of electricity generated, then sold, with assumption as to hours or quantity of dispatchable energy sold.
Bold sweeping comments are easy to make - we have all been doing it for years here - is time for the rubber to hit the road, so lets focus on detail and verifiable information.
I guess you guys have all the answers and logic then. Tell me then why has Botswana proved to be so incredibly challenging for TG and team for so many years. I mean, by your logic, Botswana is a great place, efficient and pretty rich - so should all work swimmingly for all concerned.
Govt payments (which include BPC) is a nightmare there, has been for several years. Budget deficits have been increasing since covid, and now diamonds are well out of flavour. Anglo has announced it is selling De Beers which is a massive deal for Botswana. Elections are in October which is a massive deal for Govt there. We can pretty much write off the rest of the year now as Govt are preoccupied elsewhere yet again.
Fair enough point Olda on the market cap jumping upon delivery of first electricity - that the POC has been proved etc. A double to 4p is not such a huge stretch i reckon, but I suspect there will be significant sellers on the way to 8p.
As for another raise, again imo that is unavoidable - assuming TG and team want to scale up operations quickly. However i do think the bigger problem at this time for Tlou will be getting paid regularly and on time by BPC for the electricity sold to them. One aspect that most here are blissfully unawares is that cash is in desperately short supply in Botswana; that BPC is basically insolvent; that Govt has for many years been desperately cash strapped; that Botswana is a wonderful country but large land mass with incredibly small population and therefore small economy/GDP..... Economies of scale in Botswana are basically Ass about Face - think France economy v Botswana economy and work it through ...
Renewables is the way forward for the Energy mix in Namibia/ Botswana - refer the 5GW solar plan there being promoted by Power Africa being promoted by US Govt. And Namibia recently secured $150m or so funding from World Bank to help them figure out the infrastructure and detail around this project. Botswana has yet to secure similar funding - which means they are behind the curve (not leading on this). Which in turn means this project is moving just as slowly as CBM there - which is a shame because things there that obviously make economic and common sense to us all are simply struggling for traction etc.
And ' the struggle for traction' is what sadly defines Tlou / CBM / TG / early bird investors
Good man Brad - just in case you forgot, you have a pretty foul mouth yourself !! The C-word was used I seem to remember ......... Not your finest moment.
Good man Winni - always good when fellow posters join in the spirit of engagement. Just amazes me endlessly why you have little to offer other than criticism of my posts. It really makes this message board such a joyous place to exchange views and opinions.
Free is on the back foot now because he knows he showed his bias in previous criticisms. I imagine if he does post again, he will be more guarded.
Annual Report would be where most people refer for company specific financial and operational information.
A$5m convertible note held by Doc; US$5m note held by BPOPF. Clooless will help confuse you with understanding the terms you don't understand.
I think you will find the rest here are pretty 'clued up' on how convertible notes operate as a financial instrument - but thank you for the link.
Not sure why you think Directors and others have note instruments. Even if they did, the numbers of equity issued against these would be a relatively small number.
What I believe you should focus on is that convertible note holders are classified as Preferred Creditors and therefore rank ahead of Equity holders in an orderly wind up or liquidation of the company. Again, this feeds to the 'argument' that TG has 'lost control' of Tlou Energy - given 2 principal shareholders effectively 'control' 55% or more of Tlou. It would be really good if Free would provide his insight and clarity on why he thinks otherwise.
And now to be somewhat controversial - minority shareholders are effectively screwed here. They have been for a pretty long time; just that most here didn't see it coming or couldn't bring themselves to admit it. And sadly, we are all in the small small boat.
Free challenged me previously on the issue of TG having lost control of the company. Well, he has 66m shares = 5% ownership (important number - but definitely not controlling). Admittedly he may have management control, but for sure he does not have economic interest control.
Feel free to clarify here for us all Free - thanks.
Clooless - really is time you started trying to get clued up mate. And stop making an endless fool of yourself.
Just to help ensure you are using correct numbers Brad:
Total shares in current issue - 1,270,133,251;
Doc shares under ILC - 357,142,856 = 28.118 per cent;
BPOPF shares now - 208,521,092 = 16.417 per cent;
So presently short of 50% - although conversion of their convertible notes would issue approx 400m more shares based on my maths - 160m to the Doc and 240m to BPOPF.
On that approx basis, the %s would change to approx 31% for the Doc and 27.75% for BPOPF = 57.75%.
I am wondering what waivers both parties will have sought / or the various Stock Exchanges will have given so that niether party were required to make a formal offer to acquire minority shareholder stakes.
For once, you raise an interesting point - but unknowingly. 1.670m shares potentially in issue ie fully diluted less approx 1.0 billion owned by Doc / BPOPF. Leaving 670m owned by management and other minorities - assuming the majority shareholders have Zero interest to particularly protect minority shareholders, and assuming there actually is a viable sustainable and successful business opportunity here ahead, they could consider tabling a bid to take out Minority shareholders - at what price I wonder....
Now there is an interesting topic to debate.
Wonderful sunny weekend in Doncaster. Sorry it was raining where you clowns are.
Gee whizz guys. How much longer until you realise you are being strung along here
You keep telling me what I am saying Cloo. You seem to enjoy doing that. All being well you will get something right, soon.
Hope you and yer da have a nice weekend.