With respect4 Apr 2026 22:40
Most of you are missing the point regarding why Tlou is not pushing to complete the sub-stations. Here is my reasoning, and I dont give a fiddlers if you disagree.
First, there is a certain amount of electrons that needs to be injected into the TX line to energise the line and travel the 100+km to Serowe. And then a consistent flow of electrons to keep the line energised and supplying power to BPC. And when they do not fulfill the supply agreement specified in the PPA, BPC will levy penalties on Tlou.
Second, reading recent Tlou updates it is obvious there is concern about the ability to supply consistent power to both BPC and to Kala, so Tlou has to decide which one to service properly in first instance. Kala is the obvious choice given they are more easily managed should the power supply side fail or experience problems. Tlou has said that additional drilling is required to increase power generation from the 2MWs.
Third, if 2 horizontal wells cannot be relied upon to supply consistent 2MW or even up to 10MW of power, then there really is a problem with these 2 wells. Those horizontal wells cost from memory around A$2m each, so minimum A$4m total - none of us seem to have the expertise to appreciate the cost reality of this aspect. Botala are talking about drilling vertical wells for around $150k-200k per well.
Fourth, Tlou drilled in the lower Serowe seam which is the thicker of the 3 seams. Botala drilled 3 or 4 wells to the top seam, and recent well to the middle seam. They have not drilled yet to the bottom seam which is only about 20m deeper than middle seam. Why is that? There are very few drill operators in southern africa never mind Botswana and you can be sure they talk among themselves. Tlou refuses to release gas flow data to the market - I leave it to you to decide whether they are hiding good news or less good news. Botala, until recently, harped on about Sekaname drill results from around 2014 and they are waiting on Bots Govt investment money from Minerals Development Corp Botswana. This money is now overdue. There was an article last week about the green meanines complaining about the perils of gas drilling and extraction - easy woke cannon fodder for the tree huggers who largely just jump on bandwagon to complain about trendy concerns.
Fifth, the Govt of Botswana has never truly believe in CBM as an energy feedstock and how it can help the economy. If they did, then the path to success for Tlou and Botala and Sekaname would not be so hard.
Conclusion: Sekaname seem to have gone out of business. Botala are waiting to see success of their 5-spot drill campaign which, if successful, will underpin their LNG project. Tlou are within 1-2 months of being able to demonstrate they can supply consistent gas to run Kala data centre. it may currently only be small scale - but if this proof of concept fails, then the future success of CBM falls to Botala and their vertical drilling. Crunch time is near!!