The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Sunshine was taken out in 2008 and Arrow some years before that. And here we are, talking about those successes 15 years later. Sorry lads - first rule of investment and wealth management is and always has been - Past Success is no guarantee of Future Performance.
We are all getting bored hearing each other repeat the same old clap trap that has been hashed and rehashed for past 5 years.
Sunshine was valued at $1.1 billion when sold as part of Queensland Gas. Does that mean shareholders received per share value of $1.1 billion ? Maybe / maybe not - we will never know.
Is Tlou Energy worth $1.1 billion now or in 2 or 3 years time? What idiot would pay a billion dollars aussie to commit to energy there? Jeepers you could probably buy Eskom for a million bucks, given that you would have to take on so much legacy debt. And do you think Botswana and BPC is a shining light, north star, deal and steal of the century ,,,,,
Get real chaps - soon. For your own sake
Good question. Executive salaries should have been pretty much withdrawn when the project was treading water ie after the first tender submission was cancelled and had to be resubmitted. This was a stuff up by Govt / Ministry and I'll bet you a pint what was submitted second time around was 90-plus percent same as first time. But maintaining 3 stock exchange listings, whilst all the while remaining open for business has maybe been the cause of the loss of shareholder goodwill (ie the last attempt to raise cash on AIM). Seems to me this management forgot that Investors get tired of hearing the same old, same old especially when progress is at snail pace.
And dont forget the absolute nonsense of trying to hoodwink shareholders about selling gas generated power to crypto players. Just about the daftest thing I ever heard - in Botswana, out in the bush FFS.
I wonder if Sekaname have issued one billion shares for their 6MW PPA...... Now there's a thought to debate - unless of course Brad takes over again and tells us all (yet again) his view on why Sekaname were included in the 100MW tender process (yawn).
Most folks are likely to have invested here c2016 as the 100MW RFP was issued (and Tidd_83 got his ridiculous hype effort in full swing - wordpress, the Unofficial site of all things Tlou Energy. HTG what a clown). There was around 250m shares in issue and TG was the main shareholder etc. I would be pretty darned sure nobody then was expecting their first project delivery thereafter would see 1.07 billion shares in issue and convertible note debt of US$5m from BPOPF, A$5m from the already largest 35% shareholder, with the likelihood of further convertible note of US$5m to 7.5m required to finish it off.
It's about time Whizzer was back here banging his drum about how TG has let everybody down - seems he is simply resigned now.
i guess it is easier to 'shout at the moon' rather than take the time to investigate the current dynamic of the pozzolan market and how scm additives are transitioning into the cement and concrete supply chains. safe - if the major players were accelerating their use of pozzolans (in sufficient quantities) then our cs project would have been snapped up long ago. but it hasn't - why do you think that might be ?
the answer isn't because pc in unable to convince cement industry be****ths that one dopey little pozzolan project (out of quite many nowadays) owned by a junior exploration company is large enough to solve their supply chain transition needs. or rather - its quite a bit more complicated than that.
Hit the nail on the head Winni - the CSF is gas content and rate of desorption and uplift to the gas gathering systems at surface. Information that management provide in broad terms ie teasers, but without divulging proprietary information. Large part of me understands why that is; another part of me wonders why they dont give us good news on this (assuming it is good news to share). If and when Tlou gets to production stage, if their regular updates contain endless narrative about production problems, then that surely has to stem from gas extraction related issues.
There was about 350m shares in issue at time of 100MW gas to power pilot tender. Now there is around 1.3 billion shares in issue (fully diluted after exercising the convertible notes by BPOPF and Doc) - that is a heavy pice to bring a proof of concept project to fruition.
No doubt Free will want to respond on this - hopefully.
Via African Alliance Botswana Ltd, pension fund money bought c20m shares December 2017 at time of BSE listing. And a furhter 28m in April 2019 (with another c1m by other Botswana based investor(s)). Then USD5m convertible loan at 7.75 percent (115m shares converted at 3.2 pence).
The Doc has also made A$ 5m convertible loan at 10 percent available since (in addition to also being biggest shareholder now at c40 percent). And now both are being asked to go to their well again. You could argue they have committed so much already that they have no choice but to keep committing their money (and i think they will). How hard or easy they plan to negotiate on terms is something we will only see once the RNS is released.
Free seems to think this is a 'done deal' any hey maybe it already is. But for goodness sake, the levels of dilution imposed on ordinary shareholders here is frightening - Colm Cloonan is never winning an award for CFO of the year, for sure. The way Tlou Energy plays out (with eventual sale to whomever) might save face and give TG his hat-trick. But nowhere near the returns seen in Sunshine and Arrow days - in my opinion (which I am entitled to have - before all the haters start their usual carp).
Winni, I couldn't agree more !! This is the type of topic / discussion i am keen to develop here - rather than what people interpret as my criticism of Tlou.
Tlou deserve to be criticised. So does BPC / Ministry / Govt. Likely so does Sekaname. Let's see how Botala fares once they complete their current body of work and burn present funding. The disconnect to the Tlou / CBM / Botswana opportunity has always been the Outstanding Opportunity v Speed to Execute. My first post as Bots said the environment in Botswana seemed (to me) to be finally turning way more positive than the previous 5-10 years and i still think that. But just because it is turning better looking doesnt mean it will accelerate at the speed we in the western world would expect.
And Tlou isnt out of the woods yet re the recent funding efforts - Free's rather blase throwaway that Govt or BPOPF need to back Tlou is surely a concern. What if they don't. Or if they do, who has the position of strength in any negotiation. It's by no means a straight road to success ahead.
So that is what was said, by whom, at the Sekaname signing ceremony of their '6MW proof of concept pilot CBM power generation project'. Tlou is referenced as well at various stages - also a proof of concept /. pilot project. So i hope that clears up any out there thinking these are anything other than proof of concept gas to power projects.
Tlou is further along with their 2MW first power injection project. It still remains for them to inform us whether it is going to be 2MW initially or 10MW or somewhere in between.
It would not surprise me in the slightest if Sekaname dont inject first power until year 2026 (yes - 2026) given the delays faced in Botswana. But if they have existing wells drilled, can buy second hand generator sets, can connect to an existing nearby transmission line - then you never know, they might inject sometime in 2025. But then none of us knows anything about the number of wells they have drilled, or how many are considered as producing wells - so no point bigging them up.
Free - you make a reasonable point about the 3 of them working together sometime ahead. it seems pretty stupid having 3 sets of similar infrastructure for gas supply systems but that is easy for us to say looking here from a large distance. They are also direct competitors and it remains to be seen if they can all get along for the greater good. I suspect not however.
What is hopefully obvious now - CBM is finally up and running in Botswana with real industry traction - assuming of course both Tlou and Sekaname first prove to Govt and Ministry and the market that CBM gas to power actually works.
Part 2:We plan on running our LNG and CNG projects concurrently to push the development of the local gas market, as well as exporting the molecule to neighbouring countries. LNG is currently 40% than diesel as a fuel source and the West has already started to move a lot of its logistics and mining operations from diesel to LNG. Before going into to much technical jargon, and boring you guys, I would just like to assure all of you about Sekaname’s commitment to successfully implementing this pilot project. We aim to speedily hit the ground running and get electrons into the grid in the shortest possible time that we cam. I would like to thank the Sekaname Board and Investors, a few are represented here today, for being as patient as they have been throughout this whole journey and for keeping faith in the project. Without their tireless efforts, we would not be here today and as said earlier, this company was started almost 20 years ago so as to develop a resource while waiting for Buy-In from Govt takes a lot of resilience and courage and for that I commend them.
Lastly I would like to thank the Ministry of Minerals and Energy, and his internal team for pushing this project to where we are today. I would like to thank the CEO of BPC and his team for pushing through to the finalisation of the PPA. Your efforts have not gone unnoticed sir. We thank you for the support and we hope to carry on the great working relationship with yourselves. I would like to thank you all for coming to join us on a special evening for Sekaname and BPC and I trust you will enjoy the rest of the program.
For us at Sekaname, today is a milestone evening. We have been waiting for this day for a number of years and to believe that it is finally here shows a step in the right direction for the company and we believe for Botswana. It has been a long 18 years journey since the establishment of the company. We’ve had good days; we’ve had difficult days; we’ve lost some good people the likes of our late CEO Mr Chris Scales. But where we are this evening shows us that those efforts were not in vain.
Today marks the signing of the second natural gas to power PPA signed by BPC. This shows the support the Govt is starting to put behind the natural gas industry in Botswana. And now the ball is in our court as Sekaname to show the Govt and the citizens of Botswana that this is one of the biggest resources that the country has. Natural gas can uplift the Botswana economy by leaps and bounds as there are multiple uses for it. We have gas to power as you know and that is the reason we are here today. We have also got gas to liquids; we’ve got compressed natural gas and we’ve got Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). Natural gas is also used in the making of fertiliser due to the ammonia that is found within the gas, so for a farming nation like Botswana that would be a massive advantage for us. Currently we also in the process of kicking off a LNG project along with a green hydrogen project, which will run concurrently with this power project. These projects will bring in a lot of Foreign Direct Investment into the country; they will bring in a lot of activity into the central district of Botswana. Villages like Mmashorro, Dimawe, malitswe will benefit immensely but most importantly it will bring jobs for Botswana. We are looking to technically capacity Botswana on this resource starting with gas extraction and going all the way to creating electrons from gas.
To date, Sekaname has spent US$57 million in exploration and infrastructure throughout its resource area. We plan to spend another $10-15m for this initial 6MW project area. And we inevitably plan to spend in excess of $500m / 6.5 billion pula once we reach our intended target of over 90MW power plants. I was happy to hear Minister Moagi say we won’t be restricted or limited so we definitely plan to go pst the 100MW threshold. Sekaname’s goal is to assist BPC greatly to become a net exported of power within the region. CBM also being a cleaner energy source than coal will help Botswana in becoming a cleaner energy producer.
Part 2:
CBM prospecting works has been ongoing for several years in Botswana. It is high time that the country attains commercial production of gas and develops a gas supply industry as there are significant benefits to be realised from exploitation of this primary energy resource which is in abundance. Some of the benefits to be realised from a gas supply industry include:
Diversified primary energy sources
Economic diversification
Import substitution
Much needed employment creation
And of course wealth creation
I am please that Sekaname has reached a point of undertaking a Pilot Project which gives them an opportunity to prove commercial viability of extracting CBM for power generation. If successful, and I have no doubt it will be successful, this initiative could unlock the potential of a gas production industry in the country. And I say, I am not in doubt because we have seen the flaring that is already ongoing in the various players in industry - the one in Sandveld area and now we are going to be witnessing this one from Sekaname.
I would like to encourage all private sector players involved in the Proof of Concept CBM Pilot Projects, BPC and my Ministry to work together as one team on the initiative of developing a gas supply industry for Botswana.
Ladies & gentlemen, a very good evening to you all. Our National Energy policy aims to create an energy system that ensures secure and reliable supply of modern energy services for sectors of the economy and significantly reduce energy related atmospheric emissions by 2040. And to realise the goals relating to this sustainable environment as enunciated in our National Vision 2036, Govt developed and adopted an Integrated Resources Plan for electricity generation which provides for meeting the countries electricity demand from diversified primary energy resources. In line with this IRP, Govt is supporting the development of Renewable and Non-Renewable sources of energy encompassing coal, gas, solar, wind, and any other of those primary energy resources.
Today marks yet another critical milestone in the development of the Energy sector as we witness the signing, or the execution of the PPA between BPC and Sekaname for a 6MW CBM proof of concept pilot project. This is the second CBM pilot project which Govt is supporting, the first being the Tlou Energy 10MW pilot project which is now at construction stage.
Ladies & gentlemen, electricity generation technology from coal, gas, hydro, biomass, solar, wind, you name it, as primary sources is well developed and can be deployed with certainty of success. For Botswana, bankability and sustainability of commercial extraction of CBM gas in sufficient quantities and quality for power generation needs to be proven through proof of concept pilot projects. Govt fully supports the initiative by the Private Sector to develop a gas industry in Botswana taking advantage of the abundant coal reserves in the country. In this regard, Govt is supporting the private sector through a dispensation which grants holders of CBM prospecting licences to develop CBM fuelled proof of concept power plants aggregating currently to not more than 100MW. Govt guarantees that BPC will purchase the generated electricity at reasonable tariffs thus providing some cash flow to the Developers which enables the Developers to raise equity and debt funding for gas extraction development. The PPA for Sekaname 6MW CBM Proof of Concept Pilot project, which we are witnessing or will soon witness today, demonstrates Govt support to entities in CBM exploration and as I already mentioned, this is the second CBM Pilot Project which Govt is supporting.
Time to call out your endless stupidity here Smith. Your ramblings have killed this board and make it generally devoid of any useful 2-way conversations or debate. You seem to think you are the only voice qualified to opine on CBM in Botswana. You very clearly are not.
When you dont know something, your posts are generally made up tittle tattle. When you do know something, your posts usually end up with irrelevant tittle tattle. Show other posters here the respect they deserve and keep to topics relating to Tlou and CBM etc.
I post below the link to Sekaname 6MW signing re their PPA. I suggest you listen to it all - then maybe your education on Tlou / Sekaname / CBM history can begin.
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=737338438436328&id=100064805345003&mibextid=WC7FNe
Https://www.facebook.com/mmgebotswana/photos/mmewr-1124-i-199-10-october-2019-to-all-media-housespress-release-update-on-the-/531217840969277/
If you cannot access Facebook, then type 'Sekaname preferred bidder' and see the search results.
Would someone else please suggest to Brad he stays on the sidelines for next while. He clearly has lost the run of CBM development in Botswana and the pivotal role that Tlou and Sekaname both played in the 100MW pilot gas to power tender. He wont listen to what i post clearly.
Yes, i would not disagree that Tlou are well ahead of Sekaname and Botala. Not so sure I would agree that they are 'well ahead' - simply because Tlou, being in the vanguard, have probably shouldered most of the hard yards to get the first pilot /proof of concept Gas to Power on a commercial basis over the line. If you watched the Sekaname 6MW signing ceremony on Facebook last November (I think it was), there was considerable Ministerial firepower attending that event. I don't think that was because they wanted a glass of free bubbly and canapes - so it would be no surprise if they and Botala can advance their projects much faster now given CBM gas will have been commercially proved.
I almost felt Tidd83 was posting again given your hearty endorsement of Tlou and TG in your last post - but i know you are not.
Yes, the country has been paying for expensive imported power - but Govt and Ministry seem pretty content to let that scenario run and run. I have previously questioned why that might be - might you have a view on this?
Eric Molale said CBM, if proved was the way to go as long as the tariff was competitive and reasonably affordable. There has been a long held rumour circulating in Botswana that Tlou's tariff was set at a level as to be considered a loss leader. If true, then CBM as feedstock for Gas to Power PPAs are unlikely to proliferate in Botswana ahead, are they ?!
Still - all this is about the past. Fingers crossed Tlou and TG smash all these boundaries you allude to and then a vibrant CBM market can prosper and flourish. And the Chinese or Indians put all of us out of this elongated misery. And Yes, by all means, get your cheque book out and buy more shares - I think you will find there is plenty of stock available to keep you happy. GLTA.
Well PC is unlikely to be busy all day, every day on SRES matters.
They are not a growth company - they are a cash generating machine. The share buy backs were likely a strategy enforced by major shareholders which made sense to them at the time.
Interesting and good answer - thanks. Going to be more fun talking to you than the naive eccentric. Correct me please where I am:
Both Tlou and Sekaname were awarded Preferred Bidder status following the 100MW pilot gas to power tender that started in 2016;
Tlou were awarded 2MW with plans to increase to 10MW over time, and Sekaname were awarded 97MW;
Both companies have been hampered by dreadful luck / bureaucracy /covid /funding - but seems both are getting on with things finally;
Tlou should connect to grid by mid-2024 and Sekaname recently signed 6MW PPA;
Tlou will be injecting 2MW initially and presumably scaling up quite quickly thereafter;
Tlou had to build 66kV transmission line over 100km, seriously adding time and cost to overall project;
Sekaname licences are located much closer to Serowe and Seruli and can avail of nearby 66kV transmission line for their power evacuation - saving time and cost;
Tlou drilling has been mainly horizontal, whereas Sekaname (per KEB website) are saying vertical drilling;
Tlou acquired their Lesedi and Mamba leases from 3rd parties that had in turn acquired them from Sekaname;
Sekaname had partnered with Shell and US Geological Survey way back (almost ancient history) in 2003-05 to perform the initial CBM assessments in Botswana;
The CBM gas in situ observed then presumably is still in situ some 20 years later;
CBM gas and drilling has gone through a number of cycles where 'Gas is Good' and then 'Gas is Bad', and is now (defies me how) gas is seen as 'green and clean' and part of the Sustainability agenda solving the Net Zero transition by 2050 (burning methane is burning methane regardless how you dress it up);
Lastly, I am interested in your observation that Tlou is miles ahead of the opposition in Botswana - it just seems to me that Tlou management have been working on this 2/10MW pilot or proof of concept project for 10 years or more. Granted they are closest to transitioning from Exploration company to Production company but Botala have money to spend and have been regularly updating their progress, which seems much larger scale overall than Tlou's published ambitions of past 5 years;
Who knows where Sekaname currently are, since they seem to pitch from periods of dormancy to brief periods of meaningful progress - but they are a local Batswana player and now have a PPA with BPC (same as Tlou - so not miles behind) so maybe they are chasing funding (same as Tlou);
And lastly lastly, I would have thought the market opportunity for Gas in southern africa is so huge it can accommodate Tlou, Sekaname, Botala and more in time. No doubt the Chinese are coming soon......
Indeed they are Free. Always have been and will be. Who is it again they have to pay a royalty to ?
Ok you are right Brad. You always have been. Keep plugging away mate.