The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Well PC is unlikely to be busy all day, every day on SRES matters.
They are not a growth company - they are a cash generating machine. The share buy backs were likely a strategy enforced by major shareholders which made sense to them at the time.
Interesting and good answer - thanks. Going to be more fun talking to you than the naive eccentric. Correct me please where I am:
Both Tlou and Sekaname were awarded Preferred Bidder status following the 100MW pilot gas to power tender that started in 2016;
Tlou were awarded 2MW with plans to increase to 10MW over time, and Sekaname were awarded 97MW;
Both companies have been hampered by dreadful luck / bureaucracy /covid /funding - but seems both are getting on with things finally;
Tlou should connect to grid by mid-2024 and Sekaname recently signed 6MW PPA;
Tlou will be injecting 2MW initially and presumably scaling up quite quickly thereafter;
Tlou had to build 66kV transmission line over 100km, seriously adding time and cost to overall project;
Sekaname licences are located much closer to Serowe and Seruli and can avail of nearby 66kV transmission line for their power evacuation - saving time and cost;
Tlou drilling has been mainly horizontal, whereas Sekaname (per KEB website) are saying vertical drilling;
Tlou acquired their Lesedi and Mamba leases from 3rd parties that had in turn acquired them from Sekaname;
Sekaname had partnered with Shell and US Geological Survey way back (almost ancient history) in 2003-05 to perform the initial CBM assessments in Botswana;
The CBM gas in situ observed then presumably is still in situ some 20 years later;
CBM gas and drilling has gone through a number of cycles where 'Gas is Good' and then 'Gas is Bad', and is now (defies me how) gas is seen as 'green and clean' and part of the Sustainability agenda solving the Net Zero transition by 2050 (burning methane is burning methane regardless how you dress it up);
Lastly, I am interested in your observation that Tlou is miles ahead of the opposition in Botswana - it just seems to me that Tlou management have been working on this 2/10MW pilot or proof of concept project for 10 years or more. Granted they are closest to transitioning from Exploration company to Production company but Botala have money to spend and have been regularly updating their progress, which seems much larger scale overall than Tlou's published ambitions of past 5 years;
Who knows where Sekaname currently are, since they seem to pitch from periods of dormancy to brief periods of meaningful progress - but they are a local Batswana player and now have a PPA with BPC (same as Tlou - so not miles behind) so maybe they are chasing funding (same as Tlou);
And lastly lastly, I would have thought the market opportunity for Gas in southern africa is so huge it can accommodate Tlou, Sekaname, Botala and more in time. No doubt the Chinese are coming soon......
Indeed they are Free. Always have been and will be. Who is it again they have to pay a royalty to ?
Ok you are right Brad. You always have been. Keep plugging away mate.
This was part of his opening address at a Mining Conference in Gaborone in 2019. It was posted on facebook then. The words below are 100% accurate transcript. The 100MW tender issued late 2016 was a pilot project to demonstrate that a power station could operate on CBM - ie a Proof Of Concept. (Brad - stop talking carp please)
…breakthroughs towards the realisation of CBM production. Govt has therefore awarded tenders to 2 prospecting companies, Tlou Energy and Sekaname to operate PILOT power stations using CBM gas. Should there be PROOF that they do have adequate resources, power production for CBM will be ramped up for as long as they give us competitive tariffs and are both economic and reasonably affordable. I’m saying, should there be PROOF because there has been a long debate that I find taking place between yourselves and my Ministry. Some of you are saying we have more than an abundance of gas, CBM. From other quarters we hear that those have not been proven. I want both of you to prove it to me then we start doing great things because as I am saying, I am promising that if that is available then that is the way to go with regard to POWER Production and we will start immediately.
Which one are you at Brad?
denial.
anger.
bargaining.
depression.
acceptance.
Wrong again Brad. Your love of TG has clouded your thinking sadly.
The 100MW tender was a Proof of Concept - FACT ! Remember what Minister Molale said when opening the Resource Conference in Botswana in 2018 or 2019. Yes you do, so dont say you dont.
Selomo - is eons ago. We have zero idea if it is still producing, or actually ever produced more than a f*rt in a bag. If ot was that good, then the subsequent drills would never have been needed.
Your comments re Eric / Khama etc - well if you actually had any sense of what goes on in Botswana, by whom, then maybe you would realise what an idiot you have been for so many years here. But hey - ignorance is bliss. So you keep on buying your 300 quid per month shares, maintain your frequent flier Gold status, tell us every month that you used your ISA X Y or Z - as long as you are happy, its all good.
And as for Moagi - you have convinced yourself he is as amazing as TG. Entirely up to you olde fruit. Ask yourself if your love of him is simply because I posted negatively ...... Be honest now.
Brad - HOW MUCH MORE EVIDENCE DO YOU NEED.
PS others might be interested in your anectodal asides etc, but trust me - I am not.
If you do not understand or appreciate the impact and relevance of a company in Botswana with 1.0 billion shares, or likely 1.5 billion, in issue about to deliver a Proof of Concept PROJECT (because that is what this project is, and always has been - just ask Minister Eric Molale) - then with respect we have very divergent views.
But then we always have - for how many years now !!
The rubber however is soon about to hit the road ....... Last man standing .... and all that.
Keep believing Brad, keep believing !!
It surely is time for TG to reassure the market about gas composition and flow rates being achieved. You can easily boost pressure rates by shutting down the annulus for a chunk of time, then measure pressure once tap turned on again.
Tony wouldn't do that now......
I can understand the Disaster sentiment - but that is far too dramatic me thinks. Let's try unpick the goings on here a bit.
Shares currently in issue after this Placement - 1.07 billion. Hmm a lot.
Doc loans - A$2m in May 2023 and further A$3m November 2023 convertible at 3.5 cents + 10 percent coupon - another 150m shares on conversion if exercised Dec 2024 (roughly). Does Pension Fund have convertible loan - I cant remember.
How much more cash is needed to get Tlou cashflow positive ? Lets say A$5m for 2 years also at 10 percent - roughly another 150m shares to be issued. OK now we are pushing 1.4 billion shares - probably minimum.
Free was rather blase I thought when he said "this will more than likely be taken care by Bots Pension Fund group or the doc". Well whoever is taking care of it - it isnt going to be Management and Directors (the amount is too great). And whoever they are, it's going to be by way of convertible loan - meaning they are Preferred Creditors (ahead of us equity idiots). (I said it before - TG has lost control here. and this Placement outcome merely confirms.)
I posted a while back saying if the Doc and Pension Fund do not take up their entitlement, then last man turn the lights off. Things are certainly rather precarious currently given the negotiations ahead with whoever is going to stump up the cash to get this grid connection over the line (never mine the drilling for MW injection and solar expansion).
Don't say you were not warned - next up is time to start your grovelling apologies. Don't be shy now !
Arc Minerals (listed on ASX) recently put out an update on their drilling on KCB. Early doors but sounding positive.
Other names I have come across are:
Virgo Resources - part of Galileo Resources I think
MID Resources
African Pioneer plc
Equivest
COBRE - being drilled by Mitchell Drilling Services (hmmm)
Anybody know of any others please ?
Guys I dont disagree with you re the previous BS and lack of results. But Purebond has put in a big wad of cash at 1 pence - and I suspect there is a game plan around how they exit their investment. Any views on what / how that is ?
My logic tends towards proving up Copper in Botswana and sell this to a major player (think Khoemacau and Sandfire mines). With Zimb being a low capex, high return generating decent cash flow while they wait on Botswana to work through the environmental hoops and loops. BT needs time to fall over his own feet - I dont see Purebond calling time on him for quite a while yet.
Very fair comment this. PC and team surely realise success is not measured in terms of how many races you start but rather where and when you cross the finish line. And PC record on this - is very poor !!
Https://www.weekendpost.co.bw/39327/business/electricity-generation-up-by-34-7-percent/
This article is a case study in all that is wrong with Energy and power generation in Botswana. The underlying problem is that Morupule B plant (6 furnaces) has been an unmitigated disaster since 2012. Previous President (Ian Khama) was very involved around tender award, construction and commissioning - no prizes for guessing why. Basically the Chinese delivered a large plant using second hand kit, with furnaces lined with a substance that could not withstand the high heat needed therein. But since Khama and cronies had rushed to accept the plant was commissioned satisfactorily, there was little recourse to the Chinese to fix the problems. So a 600MW plant has consistently delivered well below 50% of supposed capacity. Anyways.
Other points to note. Orapa use in power generation was 1.3percent of the total generation. A 90MW plant owned by BPC which hardly gets used - and instead they would rather buy much more expensive power from Zambia and Mozambique. That is another scandal - as in think kickbacks. They Buy 2.2 percent from SAPP - miniscule. What does that say about the efficiency of SAPP then ......
CBM opportunity is predicated on the power generation shortage - thats what attracted us all here in first place. But vested interests would appear to be very entrenched - and in Africa, these guys dont seem to like to give up their money spinning lottos.
Brad, you are referencing 'resource nationalism' in your post, which is an important issue within Africa mining circles. https://www.mining-technology.com/features/mapping-the-rise-of-resource-nationalism-in-africa/?cf-view
But that is not the issue in play with slowness of licence renewal applications. It is nothing more than bad old fashioned greed and corruption. But i dont see this as a problem for Tlou particularly as they have their mining licence in place. Tlou can claim they cannot spend exploration dollars on leases where the licences are not renewed, ie saves money for the time being.
With Mining Indaba in Cape Town starting Tuesday week, it will be interesting to see if Moagi wants this as an open question when he is attending and presenting there.
Reading the Annual Report, I was drawn to their comments about state of Pozzolan replacing flyash / being an integral part of the cement and concrete supply chains. Given this was so long in detail (but detail which i appreciated reading), this makes me think the acceptance of pozzolans is taking way longer than anyone anticipated. Which means Sunrise can do nothing much until someone comes along and says they want to buy the deposit. It would probably cost Sunrise close to $50m to develop a plant on their own (like Geofortis) - and PS and team simply dont have the skill set for that.
We had better hope DT does not get re-elected - coz if so, he will turn the coal plants back on. And flyash becomes plentiful again.
In the non-Africa part of the world - Yes, he would be out on his ear (or gently removed somehow or other).
In the Africa world - who knows. They might think he is a hero. I reckon we have to wait and see what BS (if any) starts to get spun from the Govt /Ministry machine.
And now we have this appearing in local news.
https://businessweekly.co.bw/e-edition/january-26th-edition
Tlou's licence renewals delayed by 6 or more months - all down to this clown in charge of the Ministry. Will justice be served i wonder.