Member Info for botbot1202

And now it just tanked 60c.!

I'm going to stop watching now LOL.!

It really doesn't know what to do does it.

Huge drop, then gigantic gain, then bouncing around.

The results beat expectations quite a bit, but we still lost money, with the EPS, but they did pay off some more debt which was good.

Forward looking it's "ok" but not ground breaking.

Don't understand why they are holding that much cash on hand, although they may be getting a better Interest rate paid for cash compared to their debt Interest rates maybe......

It's currently $18.95, but at one stage pre-market we hit $19.68, which is where we need to be.

Royal has bounced over 3.6% on the back of the CCL results, and have now broken $125 per share. Zacks rating is a 1 for them, strong buy, which is very annoying when CCL has a lot more growth, scope, scale and potential.

But hey..... Who knows, we've seen this grow on trend after the June results the following day after the results, so you never know, we could break $20 today......hopefully......fingers cross.!

As I finish typing, we are now at $19.18.!!!

So This is what we want at a minimum.......

Overall Q4 Earnings & Revenue Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line is currently pegged at a loss of 12 cents per share, compared with a loss of 85 cents reported in the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $5.32 billion, suggesting a 38.6% year-over-year jump.

Fordy.

I don't blame you.

This literally could go either way, I am edging more on the drop now, but I just cant bring myself to sell for the "quick buck".

Yesterday, I actually bought more.!

So I guess we will all see in probably an hour and 45 minutes

Well.

The FTSE is recovering, and the US Futures are bright green, and we are only 17p down........so hopefully all these combined are good signs.!

FTSE Futures already down 0.81%.

HOLD ON EVERYONE............

Big Boys.......!!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

This is not pretty.....

We closed at $18.64

The US Closed at $18.05.

That is a wapping 59c drop..........

42p ish to be wiped off tomorrow morning, and unfortunately the US Market is still sinking.

This is not a CCL thing, all stocks have tanked, hugely, it is absolutely the big boys taking money out and getting ready to buy in a few % points lower.

It's just really bad timing, even if the results are awesome and even if the market does actually love them now, we are going to be caught in a downward spiral.

What might be even worse is that if the results are ok, and the market doesn't like them, like the last 3 times, and with the general market already in a downturn, this could well be the worse drop we've seen to-date.

So I would say, when you go to bed tonight, say a pray, and hopefully overnight the big boys decide that they want to play again, and we have great results and we fly...........

We closed at $18.64........ It dropped all the way to $18.11, and has now recovered back to $18.29.

But it's not a CCL thing, most US stocks have exactly the same drop lines, including all Tech stock, all Indexes, and all Travel stocks.

Basically the big boys tanked the whole of the US Stock Market, because the run has been going for too long, so they decided to take some money out to pay for their Xmas bonuses.......obviously.!

Well.

We have already lost 24c, and it doesn't seem to be stopping.........

I just hope we don't have another -10% day.........that would be so depressing.

BEEJAY....

I won.!

$10,000.....made a nice change after the last 3 x cruises.!

THE ENDING BITS.!!

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Carnival?

For Carnival, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -6.31%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Carnival will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?

While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Carnival would post earnings of $0.73 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.86, delivering a surprise of +17.81%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom Line

An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Carnival doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Well.

They are tanking all cruise shares.....

So, either that's a bad sign, and results will not be viewed as positive..........OR...

They want to push the price down, so they can load up ready for take-off tomorrow.........

I have to admit, I have no idea which way this will go.

I'm sure they will announce record revenues again, and record profits again, but currently that seems to be meaningless.

EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS........

Zacks Consensus Estimate

This cruise operator is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.14 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +83.5%.

Revenues are expected to be $5.31 billion, up 38.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions Trend

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 25.81% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Earnings Whisper

Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Carnival?

For Carnival, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -

Well.

I'm happy to report that my Punt, well actually two Punts have paid off.

Petrofac currently up 45%, £12,000 Punt, so £5,500 profit so far

Genedrive currently up 40%, £8,000 Punt, so £3,200 profit so far.

Not a bad days work even if I say so myself.

So I decided to take a punt on Petrofac today before their results tomorrow.

I'm sure the results will be bad, but am hopeful that when they announce they have missed their numbers and have to borrow more, the market takes that as a positive that the company is not going bankrupt, as they have multi $B awards for 2024.

Market is closed, so deliberately sent this after the close as didn't want anyone gambling their money like me.

Purely a Punt stock, but it's dropped 97% in price over the last few years, and could easily be worth 10x what it is now without breaking a sweat, so thought, what the hell, I love a gamble. :-)

It's a bit like my Nano stock that went up to 80p and then dropped after they did a crap settlement with Samsung, so am now just waiting for the Dividend payout in March for hopefully 12p a share, so I can sell my 250k shares.

A Very Interesting day today.......

So the US is now $18.67, i.e. 24c above our close from yesterday, and we have gained 2p...!!!

So today has been an Exchange Rate change day.!

Young...

LOL.

I've only ever cruised P&O (Carnival) once, and hated it........but I hold a s.h.*.t load of CCL shares.

I only ever cruise Royal.

I just received my 1,050 cruise points award (1 point per night, 2 x points for a suite when you sail)...... So as you can tell, I've been on one or two cruises.!

Young...

I actually thought about you.!

I saw the NCL rise. Actually quite spectacular.

It quite funny really. I've got some investments that have gone up 6%, and I kick myself, until all the travel stocks tanked and my 6% stock went up to 6.5%.

Sometimes the snail is better than the hare.!

A 26% rise in a month is nothing to be sniffed at and hindsight on any stock is a wonderful thing.

I wish I had held my Apple stock I bought in 1986, but who knew.!

Also.

Shorts were reduced from last month.....

Carnival Co. & Short Interest Data

Current Short Volume106,820,000 shares

Previous Short Volume113,320,000 shares

Change Vs. Previous Month-5.74%

We closed at $18.43.

US After Hours is $18.33

CCL has held up well considering strong travel pressure. Royal, for example, has lost $1, or 0.9% using the same timings. We have lost 0.5%, which is unusual as CCL usually loses a lot more than Royal.