RE: UK vs US Close >> Tuesday22 Nov 2023 13:18
Betterlife.
It all depends on which tax he reduces to start with.
Obviously it's happening now, but I just can't be bothered to watch it.
The bigger aspect is the effect on debt, GDP etc. and if the OBR reports positive, then we are all good.
Oil unfortunately is not linked to Inflation, Oil actually is a driver for Inflation, not the other way around.
The Oil pricing is set from OPEC which is all to do with volumes of Barrels etc.
Then you have the "sentiment" factor still.
So Russia/Ukraine still ongoing. Ukraine making some advances, therefore might Russia just drop a bomb to slow them down for example.
Israel and Hamas now at truce whilst hostages are exchanged, but the wider elements are will more nations get involved, which might then spill over to Saudi etc. etc.
Each effect then has a ripple effect and although one aspect might not seem relevant, other aspects are.
Unfortunately I learnt this the hard way over the years.
Sentiment and ripple effects are the drivers currently. Pure logic, pure fundamentals about companies are in essence irrelevant.
So, CCL.
They have debt, yes, but that debt is coming down.
But the ships are full, and the profit is bigger than ever. Therefore, why isn't CCL £50 rather than £10.
Reason..... Although CCL have stated many times that they don't care about Oil pricing, the reality is that with a broader Israel war, or a Russian bomb would send Oil to $200 or $300 a barrel. That in turn will tank CCL.
Inflation is a good thing for travel companies as it means that they raise the prices but blame it on inflation, but the theory is that with Inflation nobody has any money, so nobody can travel.
Now, we know that's rubbish, but in reality IF Inflation were to continue at 5%, or 10%, then although people today would have money, in two years time their belts would need to tighten.
The frustrating this about all of this is that it is worst case planning.
The same could be said about any company really.
Look at Rolls Royce. It's trebled in a year, and they get the most of their money from Engines from the Planes flying....
But IAG hasn't gone up.........But if there was a war, then the planes wouldn't be flying so RR wouldn't be worth what it is.... so why has it gone up.
That then goes into sentiment........ Travel is a luxury, and unless everyone has money, then there wouldn't be travel, and whilst the world is on the brink of multiple things, the big boys will play with swings to make their 500%'s in a month so their bonuses can be gigantic, and good old johnny public will just have to live with the 5% loss or 5% gain whilst sitting and waiting...
Reality is, assuming no wars etc. CCL will be £30. I'm hoping two years max.....
There you go. My rant for the day...
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