Member Info for BorderBob

Can't always trust the RNS listings, it appears.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=202107201102528316F
Like many others, they are looking for short-term profits and when the price hit 60p, they decided to take some.

Canada uses British law as a model but American vocabulary. It's a "plan" of arrangement, not a "scheme," a word with negative connotations in the New World.

If you look at the charts they show a big pop in November and another in January -- one might speculate that those had something to do with Chinese jets landing in Vancouver, not with lawyers for Huawei's CFO as passengers.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd-acquire-133400272.html

It traded as high as 88 cents in the American OTC market on Monday, the equivalent of 64p. Maybe someone knows something, rather than just speculating about another extension without suggesting what reason would be acceptable.

I am amused by the mind-readers who are certain that the delay is not caused by the BCN board trying to negotiate a better deal -- like, "let's spin off ZNWD first." An admission that all those e-mails to the BCN board were pointless.

My wild guess, on the other hand, is that we’ll see something by Tuesday. I base this on my belief that paperwork has to be filed with the High Court in time for it to sanction a shareholder meeting to approve the deal. There is a perfunctory review of this paperwork, which is drafted, approved and lodged by BCN. The High Court goes away during August and September (probably not to France), and one source says it takes two or three weeks for a hearing date.

There may be an ongoing discussion of the timing of a “scheme of arrangement” approval. However, I haven’t seen it here. Perhaps it is in Dee’s closed email loop. The cabal may know a lot more about the process than we can credit them with, for now.

I did find an answer to the question I asked recently. Everyone is focused on the 75% share approval requirement. But there is also a requirement that the deal be approved by 50% of the voters, regardless of how many shares they own. What happens if you try to pad the shareholder rolls, with small investors? It might not always work, but take a look at the Dee Valley case (as far as I know, no relation to Dee12345).

https://www.law.ox.ac.uk/business-law-blog/blog/2017/03/schemes-arrangement-end-numerosity-test

“On the facts the Court held that the Chairperson of the Dee Valley scheme meeting had sufficient evidence to conclude that the only explanation for the conduct of the 'new' shareholders was that they were furthering a share manipulation strategy to defeat the scheme through the majority in number jurisdiction requirement.”

In recent weeks I have noticed a number of small transactions in BCN shares. For example, on Friday July 16, there were trades involving these amounts: 25; 75; 79; 203; 228. Perhaps this means nothing; there are similar small trades for ZNWD.

In any event, when discussing whether the Ganfeng opposition has more than 75% of the vote by shares, it should always be noted that 50% of the vote by shareholder head count is also required. Even if many of those shareholders own no more shares than the England side can make penalty kicks.

I'm just waiting for the Crux interview to explain it all

Just starting a new thread on this, so it's not buried in the discussion of Zinnwald. Ganfeng got this Canadian miner with Argentine resources for only a 22% premium, so they must be kicking themselves for paying so much for Bacanora.
For those who follow the tight-knit community of lithium promoters, Millennial's founder is now chairman of my favorite lithium stock, American Lithium (not to be confused with Lithium Americas).

For Millennial, they offered a premium of approximately 21% over the twenty (20) day average closing price. The shares had popped already, on Monday, so someone couldn't keep their mouth shut. I own some Millennial, but then I own a lot of lithium stocks. Lithium is a strategic mineral when it comes to storing energy produced by fossil fuels.

Or wait till next week, when Bradda Head starts trading. If you like a splash of Mexican clay with your US deposits. Main advantage: They won't have a large percentage of Chinese ownership in a few months.

I can understand why CFD’s are illegal here in the US. It looks like a side bet on how shares will move, without actually owning any. And it can be bought on margin. Wikipedia says that a 2021 study by Saferinvestor showed that the average client loss was 74.38% when trading CFDs, and the Financial Conduct Authority of the UK estimates that the average loss amounts to £2,200 per client.

But what, here, is the bet? Is FM betting the price of those 4 million phantom shares will go up, or down? It looks to me like what would be a long call spread, in options trading. You'll sell me those shares at 67p in December, and I’ll sell someone else those shares at 60p in July. So they think the deal will go through? Or, if it doesn’t, one that is equally good or better will come along?

Tesla’s patent application for extracting lithium from clay using sodium chloride has now been published. What’s significant to me is that no “roasting” is involved (see photos of Ganfeng’s kiln in Hermosillo). The only heat involved is when “water leaching is performed at 90C under 1000 RPM agitation for up to 20 minutes.”) Tesla claims that its method will reduce production costs by 30%.

Can chemistry be patented? Does it make a difference to the Chinese, who have little respect for intellectual property rights? Will the equipment envisioned for Bacanora be obsolete before it is installed? In any case, I rate this as good news for clay miners; bad news for those who aren’t using the latest technology.

https://electrek.co/2021/07/09/tesla-patent-reveals-elon-musk-table-salt-lithium-extraction-process/

You people are something else. Secker is a crook but Ganfeng should trust he has been honest for months, without even looking at the bank statements or payroll accounts.

The average age of vehicles on the road in Europe was 11.5 years in 2019, compared with 12.1 years in the U.S. this year. For China, it’s only 5.5 years, because there are so many new owners.

That means about 8% of ICE’s are potentially being replaced by EV’s each year – and if the price of a new car bumps up because of supply shortages, people will wait until the cost goes down, as is happening now in the U.S. used-car market. Buyers of an ICE vehicle today may not be looking for a new car until 2033. And of course, once all vehicles have lithium batteries that need to be recycled every 10 to 15 years, the price of lithium will depend on demand for other battery uses.

I was not familiar with “CFD,” probably because such transactions are not allowed in the U.S. I still don’t understand it. Sounds like something PuzzleTree would enjoy. Here’s the Investopedia explanation:

A contract for differences (CFD) is an arrangement made in financial derivatives trading where the differences in the settlement between the open and closing trade prices are cash-settled. There is no delivery of physical goods or securities with CFDs.

Contracts for differences is an advanced trading strategy that is used by experienced traders and is not allowed in the United States.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contractfordifferences.asp

The obligation of the market makers is to smooth out the buy and sell prices. To do that, they keep some shares in "inventory." Without them, you would have a trade at 56p followed by one at 59p a minute later. They will support the price by buying at 57p, and then sell at 58p. In a falling market, they can lose money, but they seem to have figured out a way to avoid much of that. In a steady market, where rational people expect the price to slowly rise to a peak of 67.5p, they don't have to maintain much of a spread.

Answering Fozdog's question for the benefit of other readers -- I know he blocks me. "Any thoughts when this might come?"
It's not a five-day turnaround; something has to be filed with the Court, and then the shareholders vote, and then it goes back to Court. This is the judiciary, not the Takeover Panel. The Court is closed in August and September, so my question is whether the first hearing can be set before the end of this month if the offer comes quickly enough. Someone more familiar with this process might be able to answer that question.
Does Ganfeng want to expedite the process, or do they prefer delay? Nothing is being done in Sonora, but the London payroll continues to burn the cash they are buying. If they really want to produce some lithium, I would think they want to get it done. Also, they should want to find out if someone else is going to make an offer once they have shot their wad.

You don't impress when you try to punch above your weight. It just shows how petty the opposition is. (Can anyone explain what Dee's latest insult, that I've been "rumbled," means when translated from street slang?) I am not a greedy b*****d so I will be happy to take my 30% per annum yield when the time comes. All the complaining is sound and fury, signifying nothing, but rational analysts may be waiting to make a move once Ganfeng makes theirs. So 75p is possible, probably from a Mexican enterprise, which is why the country's official geologists so quickly changed from mockery to hype.

One reason the Chinese won't start mining in Sonora until at least 2024 is that the country is still in denial about the pandemic. Did you see the story in the Guardian about how half the contestants in the Miss Mexico contest, being conducted about 200 miles east of Bacanora, have tested positive? And the young women are out and about, infecting children of the indigenous population. This is not a country where you can expect support for rational behaviour.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/miss-mexico-2021-organisers-press-ahead-with-pageant-despite-covid-surge-among-contestants