Scalability13 Jun 2021 08:04
Does anyone here have the source for recent claims that the BCN projected annual production of 35,000 tons per annum can be scaled to 100,000 tons? It’s optimistic to assume the infrastructure could support even the Stage 1 output of 17,500 t/p/a.
The Ausenco technical report from January 2018 states:
“The mine production schedule is based on a 7 day per week schedule, with two 12 hour shifts per day once Stage 2 is operational in Year 5.” So triple the staff? Where do they live? “Modular, ‘camp style’ accommodation is proposed in close proximity to the project site to facilitate construction and operations for Stage 1. The Stage 1 construction camp will be retained into operations and provide accommodation for operations staff. As operations progress through Stage 1 it is assumed that operations staff (local) will be progressively housed in Bacadéhuachi. It is anticipated that the project will stimulate development of housing and accommodation in Bacadéhuachi by increased economic activity in the area so that when Stage 2 construction commences the camp can be re-tasked once more, after minor refurbishment, as a construction camp for Stage 2, with the majority of the Stage 1 operations staff commuting from Bacadéhuachi.”
Oh, by the way. We don’t yet have a place to build the camp. “ Only expatriates and key staff will make use of the on-site accommodation. Existing lease boundaries need extending to include the proposed camp location.”
The population of that nearby town is not much more than 1,000. Even if miners find housing, and a place to eat, the water supply is uncertain.
But that part of North America is dotted with ghost towns where once thousands of people lived. The real question is, how soon will the lithium be mined out? Despite fantasies about how there is enough to last for centuries, the technical report assumes a useful life of 19 years.
“The Project consists of an open pit mine and an associated processing facility along with onsite and off-site infrastructure to support the operation with a mine life of 19 years.” There are additional reserves and resources that could extend it beyond 19 years, but the technical analysis doesn’t count those unhatched eggs. Let’s say production is tripled. That means the plan is played out in six years. Is that realistic?
Excuse my sobriety on what’s a Saturday night for me, but I find a certain fascination in such questions that, if not intoxicating, is at least intellectually stimulating.
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