Member Info for BorderBob

Why are you playing with low volume, low volatility? These lithium investment experts here were laughing at me three weeks ago for buying SQM after the sky-is-falling Chilean election dip. Since then I've made 13% plus some call option premiums.
Most of my lithium investments are in American properties -- some of them managed from Australia or Canada. I can understand why Ganfeng wants to invest in Mexico, because they aren't allowed to invest in the US. But why would the British want to limit themselves to south of the border? Still licking their wounds over that Cornwallis surrender? (Sorry, I should say Sir Cornwallis.)

The term comes from Gas Light, a 1938 stage play made into a 1944 film. Let's see, wasn't that another Ealing Studio production with Laurence Olivier? No, now I remember, it was Ingrid Bergman and Charles Boyer.

Ganfeng shareholders must have felt gaslighted -- the price dropped 7%. If all we're talking about is 5% of world production in 2025, vs. 3.5% from BCN, it doesn't amount to much in the lithium market. But the two plants together will produce more than the entire 2020 world output of LCE. What will the increased output by Ganfeng do to the commodity's price? The law of supply and demand might suggest that the Mexican mine be delayed.

From Reuters: "China's Ganfeng Lithium, one of the world's biggest lithium companies, said on Tuesday it would set up a plant to produce 50,000 tonnes per year of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in its home province of Jiangxi."
Compare that to the 35,000 tpa from somewhere out in Sonora. The new plant will process rock because, well, that's what they have in China or can ship from Australia. No clay to worry about.

Could someone ask Fozdog for me how he knows this is a "fully funded project"?
Is it because the Board told him so? And he trusts the Board?
Someone here regularly posts the question of when Ganfeng will come up with their engineering studies that were supposed to be issued 3Q of 2020, or maybe earlier. (BTW, who is it that asks? He has my respect and admiration, because I think he's on to something. )
Is the Board saying that the project is fully funded, because they're relying on cost estimates by Chinese scientists? What do the Chinese know about clay? All they know are rock and brine.
There is that photo of the Hermosillo lab worker putting something in a kiln about the size of a microwave oven. Is Bacanora clay like coffee beans that must be roasted? American scientists are working on processes that do not require heat. But maybe that doesn't kill any virus in the lithium.
Did Ganfeng go to the Board earlier this year and report that, unfortunately, the cost of setting up a new process would be twice as much as earlier estimates, although the production costs would then be lower? Some day we might find out.

@jam "My personal guess is that their formal offer will be higher than 67.5"

What is your personal guess about why they are going to their shareholders and their government for approval of 67.5 ?

I understand what you are hoping for, but I don’t see it happening. Volatility and daily volume are remarkably low, while there are so many other lithium stocks that could be played. BCN is simply a cult with a few zealots and fewer recent converts.

Others may post what they want, but would they please learn to write “should have” not “should of” ?

A good source is the Clifford Chance takeover guide. It will tell you:

On a scheme, if target shareholders fail to approve the scheme or the Court refuses to sanction it, the scheme will lapse. In this case, the bidder will have the choice either to walk away from the deal or consider launching a contractual offer.

(Ganfeng is using the “scheme” approach, which is preferred when there is Board recommendation.)

https://www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/cliffordchance/PDF/takeover_guide.pdf

A ha'penny blip today might be due to someone seeing anything favorable in the results of the Mexican election, which did not improve AMLO's status in the national legislature. If that's the case, it will be forgotten by the end of the week. Talk of rising interest rates should make investors want a higher yield on their "sure thing" 67.5p as they wait, not so much for the Ganfeng shareholder meeting but the more-important CCP governmental approval to export more yuan. No one here is talking about that, either.

“BCN needs a white knight, some big company like Tesla!”

“Tesla has already decided to be a white knight for Piedmont, which as a result is doing quite well.”

“Don’t tell us about Piedmont! We need a white knight for BCN!”

Someone bought a million shares in the morning and sold them in the afternoon for a .04p profit per share. Was that you?

@ Fozdog “In the last month alone LAC has rallied 25%”

So, you still recommend investing in Ganfeng partners?

(May 28) Dual-Listed Lithium Americas Up 3% as Begins Expansion Planning at Cauchari-Olaroz Project in Argentina with Ganfeng Lithium

https://bit.ly/2Sbd2zJ

@Bampster “There must be a white knight building electric vehicles in either the US or Mexico who could use Sonora and an endless supply of cheap and local lithium.”

Tesla is building a plant in Austin, Texas, to process lithium hydroxide. What it plans on using, though, is hard rock (spodumene), not clay. It has a deal to buy this from Piedmont, about 1200 miles to the northeast. That’s not much farther than Bacanora, about 1,000 miles to the southwest over worse roads (and unlike North Carolina, there are no trains).

Piedmont is up 150% for the year.

As I recall from geography class, there is no place in Britain more than 85 miles from the sea. Meanwhile, the Bacanora property in Mexico is about 5,200 miles from England. Coals to Newcastle = Lithium to London?

“This process would require only five dollars of electricity to extract 2.2 lbs (1 kg) of lithium from seawater. And, the value of chlorine and hydrogen produced from the cell would more than pay for the cost, leaving residual seawater to be used in desalination plants to offer freshwater.”

https://interestingengineering.com/lithium-from-seawater

Every speculative penny stock has its pigeons, who will eat anything thrown their way. They used to congregate around park benches, now they are found on discussion boards.

The Board is not allowed to comment on many things, but employees are allowed to refer Reuters reporters to previously published information about pilot tests for their clay alchemy. I did some further research and found that what happened is they trucked some dirt 120 miles from Bacanora to Hermosillo, where they had set up a lab (somewhat smaller than the Hadron lab near Geneva) and showed what worked on a small scale. Other companies elsewhere have since found new processes that require less roasting and less acid. So my concern would be whether the BCN plant, out in the middle of nowhere and surrounded by criminal cartels known to cart off anything that can be loaded in a truck and hold the people in charge for ransom, would be obsolete before operations commenced.

PuzzleTree, haven't you figured out yet that the modus operandi here is to attack any new commenter, make it known that dissent will not be tolerated, call them so ignorant they are not worth educating (see Fozdog a couple days ago), then challenge them to a video debate because that makes it easier to avoid questions and change the subject? What they don't realize is those reactions will just make some people more likely to stay and speak out even more.

The 5% tail continues trying to wag the 95% dog. In China, of course, they eat dogs. This one has been put in cold storage for a while because the country with a GDP five times that of the UK has rules that must be followed before its enterprises spend capital abroad. Mexico’s GDP is less than half that of the UK, so the country with the most at stake has, at the moment, the least control.

Ganfeng is offering 67.5p. The market is offering 57.5p, an amount which can be expected to decline as the takeover delays are factored. I’m trying to think of another example of minority shareholders successfully opposing a takeover offer that remained higher than the market price. Anyone?

No one but Ganfeng wants your Mexican clay. When is that going to sink in?

They have to offer. You don't have to accept.

"Bacanora declined comment on how it aims to process the clay-based lithium deposit in Sonora"

I thought that had already been demonstrated. So, back to the lab?