Member Info for BorderBob

This is hilarious. “Cliff will be calling The Takeover Panel . . . to find out what objections we can pose to this not being voted on as a scheme.”

Like whining, “We thought they were going to take the train to Liverpool, and now they say they are going by coach. Isn’t there some law to prevent that?”

If the Taliban were required to wear red coats and fire muskets on an open field, you would have won that war also. But in real life your opponents can choose the weapons and methods.

When has Ganfeng ever indicated that it wants something more than 51% of ownership? You can assume that if you want. I’ll assume that their objective is to prevent some other company from acquiring more than 50%. You’re not only fighting the wrong war, you’re fighting for the wrong peace.

And Ganfeng does not need ownership of 75% of shares to delist. All they need is 75% of votes cast by shareholders present and voting (in person or by proxy) at the meeting.

Anyone have an idea about who was buying and selling shares in the week after the offer announcement? I see about 40 million trading, far above the normal daily volume. I assumed it was Ganfeng, but wouldn't they have to file an 8-point-something on it by now? So maybe institutions are paying cash to get back cash and ZNWD in a few months.

I'm thinking of buying some BCN, post-ZNWD distribution, when the price should drop to 60p. Then reject the offer (you know and I know there is no "vote," but others here seem to be in the dark about this) and see what happens.

People can believe what they want to believe, but Thacker Pass is as dead in the water as Bacanora, mostly because the outcome of litigation depends on the appeals court known to favor environmentalists and to reverse local judges in sparsely-populated Nevada.

From a June 8 court document: “On March 25, 2021 attorneys for all parties held a video conference call. . .Lithium Nevada, during that call, informed Plaintiffs and Federal Defendants that Lithium Nevada did not anticipate conducting any major ground disturbance associated with the Thacker Pass Project (both mining and exploration) for approximately six to seven months and the parties discussed potentially identifying a list of other pre-construction activities that might not be objectionable to the Plaintiffs.”

It’s an odd time to be touting Thacker Pass, a few hours before an American judge is about to rule on whether the project will continue to be shut down because of objections from indigenous owners and occupants. Whatever her decision, there are two levels of appeal that may take several years.

But it’s absurd to suggest Ganfeng, a minority investor in LAC, will be allowed to export lithium to China, especially from a mine just up the road from the Tesla gigafactory. As for waiting for production to start there so they can figure out the best technology for clay: If their spies have not already discovered it, there are all those public records at the Patent Office.

Including Mexico?

Iconic says Bonnie Claire boasts the largest lithium resource in North America, shares up

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-09-01/Iconic-says-Bonnie-Claire-boasts-the-largest-lithium-resource-in-North-America-shares-up.html

I marvel at the BCN True Believers who seem to have put all of their huevos in a Mexican basket. In the past week or so, the speculative lithium mining stocks traded in Canada and Australia, but with assets mostly in the U.S., have taken off. I'm just wondering, how difficult is it for British-based investors to buy these? As difficult as it is for an American to buy Zinnwald?

tomcat always writes like that . . . an affectation you see among people with certain psychological disorders . . . it's called COPD . . . compulsive obsessive period distribution . . . Oxford Dictionary first notes its appearance in 1852 . . . thoughts are unhurried so apply Morse letter "S" for Slow . . .

10/9/21 -- in some parts of the world that means September 10, elsewhere it means October 9. Doesn't either date precede the vote on Zinnwald distribution? So perhaps this refers only to that vote. The contractual offer requires a Yes or No, not a vote, although broker software may have difficulty with the distinction.

What is this thing you keep calling Sonara?

Maybe that’s just a way to show contempt for Mexicans by mocking the name of their second biggest state?

Or maybe just a hint not to take seriously anything else you write?

He who charges incompetence should make an effort to demonstrate the opposite.

I never quite figured out how much processing Ganfeng planned to do in Mexico, and how much would be required in China to produce battery-ready lithium. So I don’t know how much they were planning on spending to ship whatever Sonora produced to Asia. It’s difficult to find freight costs for Mexico to China, but here is an interesting development: Asia-US West Coast prices are at $18,425/FEU, a 50% gain since a month ago. This rate is 503% higher than the same time last year. (FEU means forty-foot container equivalent unit.)

Of course shipping prices, like lithium prices, can fall as fast as they can rise. And given another five years or so, Ganfeng might be able to build its own battery plant in Mexico. Does anyone believe the U.S. is going to be a lithium importer by then? China consumed 39% of world lithium production in 2019; the U.S., only 5%. (Some of the Chinese lithium eventually found its way across the Pacific.)

I’ll be keeping an eye on Secker, Hohnen and M&G for the next 18 months also, to see how they fare with a libel suit. I thought those were easier to win in the UK.

The most amusing part of that rant is when contracts are called “undemocratic.” English legal history for more than five centuries has included government involvement in the rights of citizens to negotiate and enforce private contracts, and now we find out that’s a communist plot? I don’t think it’s the BCN Board who have risen to their level of incompetence.

Ganfeng can only get 83% lithium from the troubled Thacker Pass clay?

Maybe they should have looked about 300 miles farther south. Of course, they can’t export from either site.

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Aug. 25, 2021 -- American Lithium Corp. (TSX-V:LI | OTCQB:LIACF | Frankfurt:5LA1) is pleased to announce the highest lithium extraction results to date, achieving 97.4% extraction utilizing warm sulfuric acid leach on Tonopah Lithium Claims (“TLC”) claystone mineralization.

@jimb2 I would compare Chinese technological skills at refining lithium to Chinese technological skills at producing a Covid-19 vaccine. Even the British could do it better. Is your post a response to my comment that lithium mining profits are a function of labor and energy, among other factors? It's not just the cost of those, but the amount needed. Perhaps Bacanora clay is marginally easier to refine, out in the middle of nowhere with no rail service and only imported labor, but if that was all they had going for them, it's easy to understand why they went nowhere. (I suppose a profits factor would also include value of by-products from refining. Bacanora used to be salt mines, maybe that counts.)

The 3 million shares were probably sold by someone who saw more opportunity a few hundred miles northwest of the Sonora project, in the American state of Nevada. Last week two Canadian companies with mining claims there saw their share prices gain nearly 40%. American Lithium (LIACF in US, also traded in Canada and Germany) moved from US$1.30 to as high as $2.00 before settling at $1.81. Ameriwest Lithium (AWLIF in US, likewise in Canada and Germany) moved from 58 cents to 90 before settling at 81.

When will you people get over your fixation that there is only one lithium mine in the world worth your investment, when obviously it’s going nowhere fast?

In May, the pound traded as high as $1.42. Lately it’s been about $1.37. So how much better is the deal offered by Ganfeng, compared with three months ago? And how much in real money will you get in three more months? Is the Zinnwald lagniappe something to brag about?

Dee joins the ranks of a long line of generals whose battle plan was to fight the last war. Ganfeng used a Kalashnikov with its Contractual Offer, and he was prepared to shoot back with a musket aimed at a Scheme of Arrangement. As they say about schemes, the best-laid ones o' mice an' men gang aft a-gley.

It's not a private company until everyone has been bought out. Might be an unlisted one, though. Once they reach 90% they can try to force the rest to sell out. If there is really a hard core of True Believers who own 10% then they can go along for the ride. Keep the shares in the family for generations, or sell them on eBay. That's why Scheme of Arrangement is the first choice for acquiring 100%. But maybe that's not what Ganfeng wanted. Maybe they would he happy to show off some Free World partners.

Just my opinion: Everyone gets ZNWD shares, even if they don't accept the offer, once the distribution is approved by shareholder vote. And the distribution approval will have an "ex-dividend date," just as for cash dividends, so that if the shares go to holders of record on (for example) November 10, then even if you sell your BCN shares on November 15, they will still track you down to insist on delivering your ZNWD shares to you. And, the buyer of your BCN shares just gets the right to the 67.5p from Ganfeng, when they get around to paying it.

And don't forget, the Mexican anti-trust people have to be paid off enough to approve all of this!

There are some interesting documents buried on the BCN website. One of them, a 9-page “Ganfeng Irrevocable Undertaking,” provides that the earliest date the offer can be declared unconditional is October 31. That apparently allows time for the Zinnwald distribution to be approved, which is the only item up for shareholder vote.

A cynic would say that Ganfeng bought time with the Zinnwald bones being tossed to the dogs. They have the use of their funds for at least another two months, a period during which many expect sterling to decline.

There is also a 76-page document that I had not seen before, but which apparently was drafted in May. It is called the “Offer Agreement.” To preserve secrecy, Bacanora and Ganfeng are called Birmingham and Gloucester. It does note that the original plan was to accomplish the takeover with a Scheme of Arrangement, but it could be converted to a Contractual Offer.

I also found it interesting that “Red Kite,” neither a bird nor a financier known in my bailiwick, is actually a Bermuda company.

"For comparison purpose, M&A transaction have been carried out at 4x that multiple." While others we know about have been carried out at a multiple of 0.5%.

Long term, probably as good as any of the 20 lithium stocks that may actually have product by 2025. Short term, small amounts dumped on the market by disillusioned BCN investors will drop the price, probably below 20p. Unlike BCN, not traded on the US OTC market.

Lithium is ubiquitous, with the largest deposit found in the Pacific Ocean. For those who don't see Afghanistan as viable, it turns out there are reports that those deposits extend into ****stan on the other side of the Khyber Pass. Profits are a function of labor costs, energy costs, infrastructure quality and government regulation. Germany loses on the first two; wins on the third. "Green" regulations may make the difference, when European lithium must be priced higher than world lithium.

Waiting for Dee to come back and tell people to ignore those instructions about asking for certificates. That only works when there is a scheme of arrangement, which is not what is happening here, at least for now.

@r7632 "So does it mean we have have several votes choices to make as it progresses?"

The only vote I see is on the Zinnwald distribution, and that only requires 50% (and becomes effective when Ganfeng owns at least 50%). You have a personal choice on what to do with your own shares. You can keep them if you want, at least until Ganfeng owns 90% and wants to force the holdouts to sell. I think you even get the Zinnwald shares if everyone else is getting them. But there is no vote on the offer. That only happens when it involves a "Scheme of Arrangement," which Ganfeng has wisely decided not to use here because they don't need 100% of shares, they just want to avoid some other company acquiring more than 50%.

Unfortunately, the opposition had set up its defense assuming that a Scheme would be used. At this point, resistance is futile unless a "white knight" buyer appears.

I'm not sure where others are finding that the shares must remain listed until Ganfeng owns 75% (although that's probably going to happen). And if listing is required, what's to prevent them from being moved to the Shenzhen Exchange?