Member Info for BorderBob

Other than a few minor problems, it's a no-brainer! (Or maybe no-briner.)

...for Yannick Deniau, a member of the Geocomunes collective and the Mexican Network of People Affected by Mining (REMA ), the possibility of exploiting this mineral brings more negative than positive consequences.

Deniau, a trained geologist, points to environmental damage, displacement and disputes surrounding existing mining operations in Mexico. "Mining is one of the main responsible for this crisis due to the consumption of water it generates, the emission of CO2 and environmental degradation."

He highlights similar concerns around the Bacadéhuachi deposit, particularly the overexploitation of water in Sonora, where extreme water stress has been registered for more than a year; the damage to health that the population may eventually present, since an open-pit mine is planned, which will result in the devastation of the landscape and in the mineral residues causing acid drainage that, when exposed to air and water, generate a chemical reaction that pollutes the soil and rivers. It can also generate air pollution from dust from explosions.

Finally, there is the increase in violence and the increased presence of organized crime in the state of Sonora, which increasingly threatens local communities and mining operations . "The more economic interests and actors in an area increase, the more the situation of violence gets out of control," explains Yannick. The Sonora project, he says, is very close to the so-called “Golden Triangle , ” an area where a wave of violence and displaced people due to mining activity and the dispute over territory by organized crime groups have been documented. "There is a correlation that when there are mining projects, the presence of organized crime increases, repression," he says.

https://dialogochino.net/es/actividades-extractivas-es/48500-litio-en-mexico-entre-la-confusion-y-la-nacionalizacion/

Bacanora Lithium took a sharp fall after it responded to allegations of insider trading following a webinar held yesterday with one of its biggest shareholders, Cadence Minerals. It was alleged that equity raises and funding matters were discussed but in a statement Bacanora denies these talks took place. The lithium miner – which has a supply agreement with Tesla – saw its shares fall 0.7p at 25.2p. –Evening Standard, Dec 11, 2018

No better way to get the locals on you side than to throw some money at Beer Plaza.

@ InspectorGadget Whatever value the Bacanora project has in the next six months, depends on how soon investors predict when anything will ever be produced, and how much. Today the optimists believe that it will be meeting 3% of world demand by 2024, and with additional investment could raise that to 5%. Realists don’t expect production until 2025, and 1% of world demand that year (but maybe 100% of Mexican demand). Six months from now, optimists and realists will have the same views, so why would the price change (and it will probably drop below 50p once the offer is completed).

Those who suffer from tunnel vision will look only at rump BCN and hope for a miracle. Those who invest in lithium mines will look first at all the alternatives with no baggage. Many of these projects will start production sooner. Many will pay dividends sooner. (What incentive does Ganfeng have, to pay BCN dividends?) BCN has the advantage of cheap labor in a third world country, but the miners in Mexico are unionized. Its disadvantages include lack of reliable water and electricity supply. Ganfeng can overcome those problems, but not as quickly and cheaply as most of their competitors.

Had I wanted to make money from Ganfeng, I would have bought it in May when it made its offer for the rest of Bacanora, and collected an 80% profit since then while watching the BCN sore losers blame everyone except themselves for their failure.

@ Ivybush I totally understand. It's like with Boris and Donald, some people just don't care about morality.

https://tinyurl.com/4esf55kd

If you have even one example of how LAC is leaking information to Ganfeng, simply because they have one director in common, please make it public because there are many American law firms that would love to have it for a shareholder derivative lawsuit. (Also note that LAC has a director connected with a major Ganfeng competitor.)

They might not need to but they would want to. Is there a law that forces companies to borrow rather than increase equity?

The Los Angeles Times reports that drilling has started at California’s Salton Sea, for a deep well to extract lithium brine and geothermal energy. The $500 million project by an Australian company is backed by investors like General Motors.

For those unfamiliar with American geography, the Salton Sea is 1,242 highway miles from Tesla’s Austin plant, although there is a direct rail link you would use. By comparison, Hermosillo is 1,073 highway miles from Austin, or 1,134 by rail.

Today’s trivia question: Which is larger, Sonora or England? Extra credit: By how much?

@ InspectorGadget Let’s say the people are right, who claim “accelerate” doesn’t mean just “speed up,” but “expand.” Expansion costs money, right? Let’s say it’s another 100 million. Ganfeng, for its 50% share of the JV, has the 50 million. But where does still-extant BCN find the cash? They have to issue more shares. If Ganfeng owns 60% already, they’ll buy $30 million worth. But will the rump BCN investors want to advance another $20 million? Some of the diehards, perhaps, but not many. Ganfeng now owns more than 75%; the shares are delisted, and easy enough for Ganfeng to buy up the rest.

Because I learn something every day. For example, when dyslexics post about a 4680 call, they mean a 4680 cell. That's the old technology that Tesla is relying on while others will eventually run circles around Musk with solid-state. The 4680 is like the steam engines of early automobiles. I'm not in Phoenix, that's just the location of the Bacanora restaurant, but I'm close enough to the border and have traveled enough to know my geography. It's unfortunate that there are no highways from the middle of Sonora nowhere to Austin, which is closer by rail to the Arkansas and North Carolina lithium sites that will start production earlier. The Clayton Valley, Salton Sea and Arizona sites are just as convenient.

Sonora, however, is much closer than Argentina to Shanghai. If Ganfeng ever mines anything there, will its loyalty be to Chinese EV manufacturers, or to those in Texas?

Liked the one post from the guy who is clueless about why Tesla share price has tanked recently.

@jam2morrow I think the share price now is tied to the plummeting pound. Makes me wonder if Ganfeng has paid off the Mexicans to delay their decision, because they don’t want to pay now for shares that will be cheaper, in terms of real money, next month. The COE estate claim is not a factor; 3% of nothing is nothing, and the Mexicans can enact a 10% severance tax next week (viz. Chile).

Interesting quote from someone who is supposed to know something about lithium, in a Forbes article:

“It is important to remember that building a lithium mine takes seven years and many automakers want high-quality batteries. Mines are huge investments, much like chip fabrication plants, there isn't a lot of room for just increasing capacity… most of these mines will be working around the clock anyway."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2021/11/14/lithium-shortage-may-stall-electric-car-revolution-and-embed-chinas-lead-report/?sh=4bc413d946ef

The focus of that story is the shortage of lithium. The “elephant in the room,” though, is the shortage of electricity. Even adding fossil-fuel generators, the grid doesn’t have the capacity to distribute more power.

Another failed assumption is that EV buyers will own their batteries. They will pay to lease them, and turn them back in when their ten-year life expires. Make as much as you can from lithium by 2030, because the demand will start dropping then. Ganfeng knows that. Nevertheless, they may not know how to turn clay into lithium on a large scale.

@ EV-Bull When Ganfeng writes "accelerate," they do not mean "scale up." Your car has an accelerator pedal, right? It makes it get to its destination faster, not add room for two more passengers.
Draw a line from Thacker Pass, through Clayton Valley and then to the Wikieup AZ exploration sites. From there, to Bacadehuachi via Lordsburg, New Mexico, where the number of lithium claims have recently doubled. There's no reason to believe that lithium is found nowhere else along that line than those places already identified. The challenge is to find those with decent infrastructure -- water, electricity, transportation -- and labour supply, for a successful project.

Lordsburg is within 50 miles of the Mexican border, on an Interstate highway and less than three hours from the El Paso/Juarez metro area. (That's where it might make sense to build a battery plant, except Tesla already has plans farther east.) Why are there no sites within 50 miles of the border, on the other side? Because Mexican law prohibits foreigners from owning property in that zone. There are ways to get around that, with local partnerships and fiduciaries, but no one has been inspired until recently to look for assets in that forsaken land.
"Scale up" means getting the same results when tons of product are needed, as when pounds are produced in a rented Hermosillo industrial-park lab. Just because engineers say it can be done, doesn't make it true. Engineers also say that producing lithium from seawater, with zero cost when byproducts are also sold, can be scaled up. (Maybe that's why Xi has so many warships in the South China Sea.)

It's not what other BCN shareholders think, because most of them will be losing the Mexican lagniappe soon, but what KDNC shareholders think.

So the 500 hectares has nothing to do with Ford. It's a reference to that desert parcel next to the BCN property, that KDNC touts believe will make that company's investors rich. Does KDNC even own the land, or do they just have a 25-year claim to any minerals that can be dug up? Rather, does the JV of which KDNC holds 30%, own anything but mineral rights? This is all so absurd, trying to find some value in a minor Mexican frolic.

Ganfeng does own something like 13% of Lithium Americas shares, but that doesn’t mean they know anything more about Thacker Pass than any other investor. Their interest is obviously in the Argentine project, which plans to start production next year at $3,600 per ton of lithium carbonate. (LAC doesn’t provide production costs for Thacker Pass.) Ganfeng owns 46.7% of Cauchari-Olaroz already, to 44.8% for LAC. And it’s brine, not clay.

Cadence has projects on four continents, all of them far from production. Maybe Ganfeng will pay them some rent, that then can be used to finance Brazil or Australia. After all, 70% of it comes back to Ganfeng anyway.

Ford is obviously a major advertiser for El Imparcial. If Ford wants to make batteries in Hermosillo (which it doesn’t, because they’re not artisanal crafts made in small lots), it would make more sense to bring the lithium from the Arizona Lithium (AZL:ASX) site 75 miles from the rail line that runs through Phoenix, Tucson and Nogales. Trucks on two-lane roads for 170 miles are less efficient and consume more fossil fuels.

Where are you finding the reference to 500 hectares?

@ jimb2 I don’t think Ganfeng knows what they are going to do either, except to proceed cautiously and make their mistakes on a smaller scale until they figure out whether the biggest risks are from labour unions, collapsing infrastructure or crime cartels. Their capacity is not limited by the size of the open pit – the two Bacanora claims have more than enough for the next ten years – but by the size of the processing plant they build.

Meanwhile, the Mexican government wants to nationalize the claims in which Cadence has a minority interest, because no real work has started on them. They will need some sort of technology, and the Chinese system might work, but American and European methods might be preferred. Compare the success in vaccines, recently.

I remain amazed by how a handful of investors are attracted to Mexican lithium claims, like moths to a flame. Why the refusal to recognize that in many locations around the world, lithium is as common as dirt, and easier to extract and market? At least diversify. In the last month, my investment in American Lithium (TSXV; LIACF) has doubled. It remains to be seen, whether I should have just bought more of it, instead of spreading some funds around to half a dozen other “juniors.”

Speaking of spelling problems, Cadence seems to have a problem with the name of their 70% majority partner in that ground that has been determined better for building a factory and dumping tailings, than for digging up lithium. From their website:
"El Sauz, El Sauz 1, El Sauz 2, Fleur and Fleur 1 concessions, which are held by Mexilit S.A. de C.V. (“Mexilit”). Cadence has a 30% direct interest in Mexalit through its Joint Venture with Bacanora."
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/