Member Info for BorderBob

I don't mind all the insults, but the insinuation that I'm so stupid as not to require full payment in advance? A dagger to my heart . . .

For the many followers here concerned about my welfare: The ZNWD distribution hit my account at a major US broker on December 28, showing a distribution date of December 16 and a cost basis of US 17 cents (currently worth 25.7 cents). These are the shares that I acquired by buying BCN on 12/16 and selling it on 12/21. Or maybe you would say 16/12 and 21/12.

Must be covering a short sale? And "delayed publication"

30-Dec-21 15:33:25 69.25 300,000 Unknown* 67.50 69.00 207.75k O
30-Dec-21 15:31:49 69.1925 2,500,000 Unknown* 67.50 69.00 2m O
30-Dec-21 15:36:09 69.125 260,000 Unknown* 67.50 69.00 179.73k O
30-Dec-21 16:11:20 69.1351 185,000 Unknown* 67.50 69.00 127.90k O

When ZNWD was trading around 23-24 I predicted on a BCN thread that it would fall to 18 when the distribution was made -- and of course others scoffed. But I do expect it to bounce back when the market has swallowed the whale (to continue my fish-in-the-sea analogy).

It's easy to fall down the rabbit hole of one stock and convince yourself that it's the only fish in the sea (which might turn out to be the cheapest source of lithium, but that's another story). It's more difficult to figure out which lithium play in Germany has the best prospects. If environment is a concern, then the geothermal brine of the upper Rhine looks more attractive -- I hold Vulcan. But why limit the search to Germany? For European lithium, what's wrong with Cornwall (I have dipped my toe in CUSN).

That part about Zinnwald using lots of natural gas scares me. I just read that its price is four times what it was, not so long ago.

It's like BCN, a “story” stock you can fall in love with. Logical analysis is as useless as with Tesla. You might be a fool to buy it but you can always sell it at a profit to a greater fool. Don't dither much longer, it's already up 29% this morning in Frankfurt.

Ganfeng owns 17% of LIthium Americas (LAC on NYSE), with projects in Nevada USA and Argentina, and that doesn't seem to bother anyone. They have a seat on the board.

@ johnpwh "tell them you will hold them responsible for financial loss you suffer." But they might tell you that it's your responsibility to minimize your damages. So just sell the shares at hapenny less than offer. If you hold 10,000 shares your damages are 50 pounds, less the profit you made by reinvesting in ZNWD. Anyone with more shares than that, should have enough sense to follow what is happening.

“This is a resource that the world – including Mexico – should benefit from" -- makes one wonder why no one pointed out that the offtake agreements with Chinese and Japanese companies left Mexico with nothing.

I bought some more this morning for less than 14p, after making a quick profit on the BCN I bought last week.

I have no idea what you conspiracy theorists are talking about, but I did notice that Friday’s volume of more than 4 million shares was higher than all but two other days in the last three months.

Nor do I understand why there were seven trades at the open today of 68p, for share quantities of less than 100. If I had to guess, it would be that Ganfeng is buying as much as it can at 67p, and sometimes more for small lots. But then wouldn’t they have to pay everyone else 68p? So maybe it’s someone in a short squeeze.

@ Jonesy64 -- I'll put EMH on that list, although I haven't been following it closely because the size of the deposit is not as important as the annual production, which they say is 25000 mt/yr -- just another mine, one might say. And it's a JV so they only get half of that. And until recently, Czech politics were dicey. Still are, when you have a foreign minister who is a member of something called the Pirate Party.

I don't know why it was trading at 70p this morning, unless someone was caught in a short squeeze. If it doesn't include the ZNWD shares, why would a buyer pay 70p for something Ganfeng has offered only 67.5p?

@ Bannor -- I'm too lazy to figure out how much KDNC has committed to lithium, compared to how much they are relying on Brazilian iron ore. Maybe someone else has done that.

You may be right, kluck17. For me the question is which European project has the best potential. ZNWD is on the list but so is Vulcan (VUL:AX). Not to mention CUSN. They need to start growing battery metals fast since Brexit has killed the daffodil market. I don't understand the fascination with KDNC, where posts here outnumber trades on most days. An odd assortment of projects around the world, some with only a minority interest. An early Berkshire Hathaway, it's not.

I posted earlier in this thread that there was a run of small trades on Friday – they were actually on Thursday, at 14:16:20. Thirty of them in quantities ranging from 2 to 385, with all but six under 100. Small investors in managed accounts, perhaps keyed to some index?

@ johnpwh -- I have predicted several times that ZNWD will drop short term because people will be unfamiliar with it and want to forget about BCN altogether. I plan on buying more then. Long term it will increase, because after all, with Ganfeng a major shareholder what could go wrong?
@tomcat -- I have to keep reminding you of Dee's failed scheme to outwit a scheme. Forget about the 75%, focus on the 50%+ of actual shareholders at the meeting. Enough small shareholders, as long as they actually held certificates, could outvote the large shareholders. When there were 3,000 shareholders, that just meant finding 1,501 regardless of whether they owned 10 shares or 10,000. Now, with the holdouts down to maybe 1,000 the hard-core resisters would easily show up with 501. Unfortunately, no one advised those who requested share certificates to put them back in their accounts. So lots of trips to the Post Office during the holiday season, and lots of waiting for the transfer agent to issue small checks and smaller quantities of ZNWD.

I am not making this up. Using Google Translate, you will find that in Mandarin Chinese, “Ganfeng” means “Liver Wind.” And if you Google that term, you will find that:

“Since the Liver controls all the tendons, the symptoms of Liver-Wind are characterized by tremors or spasms of the limbs, severe dizziness, nausea, vomiting, tingling or numbness of the limbs, and loss of balance in standing or walking.”

There may be a second person in the world who believes Ganfeng will now risk converting to a scheme of arrangement, but so far only tomcat has made an appearance with that theory. The path forward is clear: Ganfeng will have 75% before the end of the week, and when the accounts not allowed to hold unlisted shares sell, they will be at 90% or close enough to it that they can buy the rest.
Yesterday there were a number of transactions for small holdings -- less than 10 in many cases, less than 20 in many others. In the US I would see these as coming from managed accounts that mirror an index. There must be some explanation like that in the UK, maybe some locals have it.

@tomcat "there’s another tot up also on the 22nd… so thursday if not before…" I recall some provision that they had to make daily announcements once a certain level was reached, but I don't recall what that was. I expect shares to trade Monday at about 65p, ex-ZNWD dividend, and Ganfeng to be among the buyers. Really no reason for them to have started Friday because why would they want Zinnwald? That takeover would never be approved.
@johnpwh When I was in my teens my fellow American classmates all knew the joke about "eschew obfuscation" -- even though it came from the British philosopher Paul Grice. You're just now discovering it?