Member Info for Boonco

One thing I haven't seen anyone comment on yet, although admittedly I haven't read every post on here, is that if I heard him correctly Duncan mentioned the asthma results has led to a few companies showing interest in it.

Can anyone confirm if I heard that bit correctly?

If I did then that's a positive.

Richie,

"Duncan mentioned another pharma company (i forget which one) that had just been acquired for $1.6bn and that what 4D have here is 'FAR beyond that'."

Just to clarify, Duncan wasn't talking about a company being sold $1.6B, he was talking about a single drug (I forget name) that he and Alex developed and sold previously prior to starting 4D. They sold the drug late on its development before it had approval. It subsequently went on to receive approval and the company that originally bought it from them has just sold it on to another company for $1.6B

In other words, the potential in 4D is great it just needs the finance to be able to unlock it.

I should have prefaced that by saying my take on what he said was that they have progressed slower than expected, not that they are still. The exception to that would be blautix which is still held up but that's because the fda feedback is held up in the backlog from covid.

of course they have progressed slower than expected, the reason is called the covid pandemic.

Unless companies were working on covid vaccinations the whole industry of clinical trials slowed down for, many pausing all together because of the difficulties getting patients.

4D did well to keep their trials going through the pandemic as they did.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-17/forget-crypto-winter-in-biotech-it-s-been-freezing-for-months

You'll find it's a pretty standard to have similar conditions in contracts for credit facilities.

It's not more than 50% of the whole loan value though is it, what was it again 7.5? If I remember that correct that's more than 50% of the first tranche but 25% of the entire facility plus if they get cash from elsewhere then it will become a moot point.

I personally don't think it's that big a deal but that's just me.

I'll shut up about 4D now less people try and boot me off the board!

Come on Sang just admit you made a mistake in not reading the paperwork properly.

When a company posts trial results in an rns you don't then cement your opinions and decisions based on the the rns only, you go away and actually did into the details. I know you do this because you quite clearly do a lot of research, just not on this occasion into the Oxford credit facility :P

Anyway, this and that will both come good eventually.

Hey Michael, what you are talking about isn’t control though is it (indirect or otherwise), it’s influence, influence on variables that potentially influence the probability that the end outcome (i.e. share price) will be favourable.

I’m sure you must have heard of the illusion of control bias. It is what it says on the tin. We love to kid ourselves into thinking that we have control over things that in reality we don’t. Not to teach you to suck eggs but we do it because the brain hates and is uncomfortable with uncertainty and ambiguity. It’s why the one thing the brain does better than pretty much anything else is rationalise.

Yes management sets the strategy and controls the decisions they make and the actions they take, and these things should absolutely be considered and scrutinised as appropriate. However, regardless of how well they do those things they do not have control over the end outcomes (for example, management controls what it says and does to try and influence investors to buy in but it does not control whether or not they actually do). In turn, the outcomes (good or bad) do not control the subsequent reaction of the market and by extension the share price, rather they influence it to varying degrees alongside a host of other factors.

Put 4D to the side for a moment and consider the example of a different company that I've been invested in for a few years that's currently only list in the UK only on AIM, Angle plc. It's recently in the last couple of weeks received de novo fda approval for it's liquid biopsy technology. It's initially for use in the treatment of breast cancer but it's only a matter of time before its receiving clearance for all manner of other cancers. It's de-risked and the first mover in ridiculously large market yet if you look at the share price today its now below what it was pre fda-approval. I have no doubt that long-term it will do fantastically well but right now if I was to focus on the share price and I acted like some on here (not yourself) I'd be ranting and raving about MM's being crooks etc.

Anyway, I said what I did about focusing on the fact that 4D has established great partnerships and trials + data because (finance aside) they are the central foundation of what will enable the company to be successful and management has more direct influence on them via the things that it can control than it does share price.

Regarding your last point that you consider it doesn't make sense to say that investors shouldn’t focus on the share price of an investment. The unspoken point behind my saying what I did was that I perceive much of what some people say about the share price to be driven by emotional reasoning. If someone is that way inclined then that’s not a good or useful thing seeing as the markets couldn’t care less about their personal feelings, wants and needs.

4D didn't lie about the loan sang, the paperwork was and is on their website you just didn't read it properly until late in the day.

Agreed drums.

It's a great example of why ultimately AN will need to at least dual list in America. The UK market doesn't have the institutional expertise, capital, long-term thinking or risk tolerance to support and enable an early life science or tech company to reach its full potential.

Exactly catchingpigeons.

Putting the finance issue to the side (I believe it will be sorted one way or another), 4D is in the best position it's been in since it was founded. Rather than focus on share price, something that is out of management control, people should focus on the fact that it has exciting partnerships in place with world leading organisations and that on the trials and data front (the nuts and bolts of pharma) the company is achieving excellent results with placebo like safety profiles.

Crl, which of those questions has anything to do with their attitude towards shareholders, whatever their attitude might be?

There's a British company doing this, ilika.

Surely you realise that this isn’t a pharma company?

Porky, when you say “best option for Duncan now” I’ll take that as code for you considering it’s the best option for you because you want out.

Crl,

Good grief.

I pretty much see things the same way as yourself scrambler.

PJT12, I suppose anything is possible but I’m highly sceptical. It was always going to retrace in the very short term regardless, that’s the UK markets for you at the best of times let alone when there’s an ongoing economic crisis.

Basically confirming what anyone who had done even just a modicum of research on the company and opportunity should have already known.

I can't help but think that everyone is giving the interview too much credit as far as its impact on the share price goes. For one thing the sp had already started to fall back before the interview was posted online. Secondly, at my time of writing this it's had all of 661 views.