Member Info for boonboon

According to LinkedIn he started in September. So contract aren't the only thing we're late announcing.

The thing with this share is it jumps up and down on relatively irrelevant news. The ASA ruling was a slap on the wrists, but I don't think it adversely impacted sales. The shares sunk. Idp announce the launch of prolong, which had already been indicated and should have been in most peoples minds. No material change in sales forecasts yet the shares soar. I wonder what the agm announcement will do.

I've just gone through broker notes for last year and it was 45% superdrug and 55% DTC. That makes superdrug sales flat at around £3.9million.

The market is turning against high growth companies at the moment. FEVR is down over 10% today and significantly more than that from it's recent high. The main difference is we're already at a low p/e rating so hopefully won't fall much further with this sentiment. FEVR is still at a p/e if over 50 we're at 14.

It was from a broker report.

Yes https://www.nvidia.com/object/ecosystem_profiles_p5.html

Here's my calculation. Last years sales were £8.8million. 35% of this was superdrug so £3.1million. DTC last year was £5.7. That increased by 20% to £6.84million. Add in £1million for Roots, Charles and Lee and Prolong and you get total non superdrug sales of £7.84million. So superdrug sales last year were £2.86million so a slight drop. This despite the fact that they actually sold more to customers, leads me to think that sales at SD will start to rise again. Probably especially in this half before Boots competition kicks in.

Shandy sales at SD didn't grow last year in fact I think they fell slightly. However superdrug did sell 12% more skinny tan to customers than the year before. However due to them decreasing the overall shelf space the increase in sales to customers didn't translate to an increase of orders to Idp. I believe the destocking is now largely over and if stock is still selling to customers at the same rate orders to IDP will hopefully increase as well.

Shandy, the shaving range is available now it launched about a week ago. https://charlesandlee.com/collections/shave

Shandy, Your 2020 estimates are spot on with the analysts. With regards to Roots in more Boots stores I'm not sure it will happen soon, although I wouldn't be totally surprised if it does. I think they will be concentrating on getting the launch into Boots right and then preparing for the launch of SkinnyTan into Boots. There might be a window in between to increase Boots stores, but I wouldn't view it as negative if we don't.

Shandy, I think there will be growth in skinny tan in the first half. Lots of new products compared to last year. Products which aren't as seasonal as well. I also think professional is doing well since the July launch in salons direct. I also think there will be more than £100k from the others. I'm expecting some revenue from prolong, but mainly Charles and Lee which is now in 350+ stores. Can't disagree with your Roots projections.

Seanx, Those weren't sales figures. They were positions in the charts. Imo sales in store are at least twice as big as online sales. They did not average £1000 a day last year online. If they did that would be £365000 or roughly a third of total sales. Roots is a different product to skinny tan. It's not instant results so it takes longer for word of mouth to spread. However once it works for someone I would guess they would be hesitant to change to another product. So slowly they are building a sticky customer base. Once you start getting repeat customers and new customers from word of mouth growth will kick in. This product is very much in it's infancy and yet managed nearly £1 million in sales last year from a standing start. I'm really excited about this product much more so than SkinnyTan. It's not seasonal and doesn't have geographical or ethnic barriers. BTW none of the Idp beauty and cosmetics products will ever be sold in China unless China changes its stance on animal testing. Prolong on the other hand could be a big seller there. Especially if we can get the price point right.

I don't think we'll get a confirmation rns as such. It will probably be mentioned in the agm update though.

Cash and equivalents was GBP1.9m as at 30 June 2018, which remains a comfortable level to meet business as usual requirements

Which RNS has indicated a cash raise?

I think you're on the low side. My estimate is for an initial order of £750,000 (the same estimate as Finncap). On an ongoing basis I believe we should do £6-8 million a year with Boots and probably £10 million+ a year from both Boots and superdrug. At the moment were doing about £3.5million with superdrug.

If anyone has got the time this is interesting and plenty of parallels with IDP. https://www.piworld.co.uk/2018/06/30/creightons-crl-full-year-preliminary-results-presentation-june-2018/ They mentioned that it's not important to be in too many Boots stores. (the optimum number is 700 from memory) . After that you start seeing diminishing returns. It's more important to increase shelf space in existing stores. Their brand feather and down has 9 products and is in 130 Boots stores and it turned over £1 million in the first year. So what turnover can we expect from SkinnyTan with potentially 20+ products and 1250 stores?

From superdrugs point of view they're just trying to mitigate the effects. They can't afford to dedicate a third or even a quarter of space to a non exclusive product. They're probably replacing with new exclusive brands to differentiate themselves from Boots. That doesn't mean SkinnyTan won't continue to do well there. However my gut feeling is that SkinnyTan sales will be higher in the average Boots stores than the average superdrug stores.

Superdrug have been devoting less shelf space to SkinnyTan and replacing it with other brands in preparation for their loss of exclusivity. However despite this they actually sold 12% more skinny tan than last year. So sales to customers are holding up well despite the lower shelf space. Hopefully the destocking has now finished and they will start to up their orders again as the demand continues to be strong.

I've been thinking about many of the negative comments recently and I don't agree with the majority of them. I think strategically the company has done very little wrong. Their big mistake was to make a forecast at the beginning of the year that wasn't met. They were maybe a little naïeve about that. If they had said, "we're not going to renew exclusivity with Superdrug and we therefore might receive a short term backlash and can't give any guidance. However we strongly believe we can attract new retailers and stronger growth over the medium term", then I believe the market would have understood. Superdrug was a necessary evil to get Roots launched, without the SkinnyTan exclusivity I doubt superdrug would have listed Roots. We're now in a much stronger position with two great brands and deals with 3 major retailers.