RE: Spotify5 Feb 2025 22:39
The market was impressed with the conservative guidance last year followed by multiple upgrades in the final part of the year!
2025 guidance is conservative again overall - but the model has so much seasonality in it that revenue and ebitda are both heavily weighted to Q3/4 - revenue because of NFL season, Thanksgiving etc, and ebitda because once they’ve met minimum guarantees on contracts there’s a flow through to ebitda. It does mean that a balance has to be struck so that when rev and ebitda seems lower in Q1/2 vs guidance for the year. Im sure management and cavendish will be in a position this year to upgrade guidance a little earlier