Member Info for bonum

They basically know what the situation is but need the independent assessment completed from Accenture (i believe). Not sure how long that will actually take. I actually think we could get a positive response to the SP as the lossess should be stated as well as reference to the strong core business pushing profits forward beyond the current financial year. The current Chairman looks intent on restoring shareholder confidence in the company & management. Thats why i believe the reference to the larger year loss due to Windcarriers & defered profits from the contract were included in the recent RNS about the delivery of Windcarrier 1. The previous management may have omitted that & just given us another nasty surprise down the line somewhere. Its now its about clearing away the rubbish, setting the record straight with regards to the years losses which i believe will be pretty much priced in & moving the company forward. As i mentioned before an important point for me regarding the shorter term ability of the stock for a price recovery is the continued financing of current contracts & bank debt. The Chairman in the 3rd Oct update reiterated the company's ability to do that. In the climate of transparency thathes instigating i believe that to be the case. We always get regular updates from the company so i dont think we'll have to wait that long. atb

You can click on my user name to see the reasoning why but wont repost as i've put it up several times - the regulars will likely get fed up anyway ;) atb to those holding

"bet on a takeover only" - not the case you probably know Bumi better then you know LAM atb

reading back, i apologise if my posts go on a bit but i'd rather give a thorough reasoning underpinning by views on the stock, as opposed to innocuous observations on any intraday movement atb

In answer to your question, I didn't think your post was specifically addressed to me as my timescales & reasoning are pretty well known to the regular readers of this forum. Thats why my references to the previous director buys & news of windcarrier 1 ready to go were borne out within hours or days of posting here - I knew that in the same way that i know the core business is solid going forward & the company assigned to carry out the independent assessment. In the case of Windcarrier 1 news was also the reference to the deferred contract revenue resulting in a larger loss for the year. Thats all part of the efforts for fuller disclosure by the new chairman which the previous management would have done well to have emulated. A lot of negativity associated with this stock is linked to the possibility of further disclosures - Thats what the new chairman is trying to address, hence why i believe the full independent assessment will actually bolster the sp rather then suprress it any way. The main investment issues for me are the viability of the core business going forward with cash liquidity to fund current contracts & service debt and beyond the losses we know will already impact this year. My own investment decisions are made from an informed perspective of any given company & within realistic timeframes for a maximum return. Thats why i dont get swayed by short term price movements but am looking towards the bigger picture playing out with a multiple return of my initial outlay. atb

Lets just wait & see if the Sunday Times reference to it bears out - its something many of us expect but speculation until we get confirmation from the company itself.

I'd buy based on a sound core operation beyond the problematic fixed price windfarm contracts & the defered profit contract for next year. The independent audit is there to address institutional & retail investor concerns with much needed transparency the result. The company actually know where the issues lie and hence the chairmans decision to axe certain of the management & appoint Paul Whitbread as the interim chief execultive. The core business operations are sound & profit generating as are projections for sector growth & the ability of the company to fund existing contracts and service bank debt. That will be reflected in a recovery of the SP going forward & beyond the lossess we know will be incurred this year. A great buying opportunity for those looking at the fundamental factors underpinning the company & sector as well as the reason for the price drop & actions implemented to address those dyor etc

The sp's down in line with the drop in most market indices with the start of US earnings season & a broader downbeat (but expected) assessment of the global economy yesterday by the IMF. Also some overall correction of markets after the stellar rise over the preceding weeks with a view by many analysts to buy on such dips - Thats the reasoning without any conspiracy theories. The fundamental, core busines is sound here

If you look at the ftse & general market today, theyre down so far so LAMs sp like many other stocks is experiencing a dip. Everyones really waiting for the spanish to ask for thta ineviatble bailout for the next major uplift of market sentiment. Opinion seems to be that will happen very soon.

Takeover speculation/ action that was refered to in the sunday Times. Weve mentioned here before how attractive Lamprell would be at this time for such T/O action. Lets see what happens atb

"if it was worth a quid people would be paying that" Not necessarily as prices pick up momentum so the 100p wobbly refers to may not be yesterdays closing price or todays but doesnt necessarily mean it wont be the price next week or the week after for example. We know how rapidly the SP can move here. What im aware of is that the core business is very sound & profitable having been brought down by the issues wwere aware of - those are being addressed. We need to quantify the exact extent of losses but theyll be specific to this financial year with much already priced in. My estimates are well above moffats price predictions & based on the healthy core business generating impressive profits beyond this year & in the growing sector

A Takeover by GE would likely be very good news for those getting in around these prices. Its interesting to get press coverage now confirming what weve been discussing here whether that leads to a firm Takeover offer or not. What it might also do is encourage other interested parties to show there hands and express an official interest in Lamprell. A billion plus quid order book is tremendously useful if the specific loss making areas have been identified which im led to believe is the case & concerns the fixed price windfarm contracts. The core business is very solid & should benefit from that sizeable order book as well as the expanding sector trend which weve also discussed. Its unfortunate that the windfarm & deferred contract have impacted the sp in such a way. This years a write off which the markets basically priced although were now looking towards addressing issues & procedures with new management & a view to rebuilding profitability (and a dividend stream) beyond the current financial year. And of course it looks like signs of incraesed speculation regarding T/O activity which will only bolster the price further.

Lamprell stands by to be boarded Danny Fortson Published: 7 October 2012 Sunday Times ANY bets on how long before Lamprell becomes the next London-listed company to fall to a foreign predator? The FTSE 250 maker of drilling rigs and wind farm installation ships has been through the wringer. Or rather, it has put itself through the wringer. Last week John Kennedy, the company’s new chairman, ousted chief executive Nigel McCue, as well as the finance director and operations boss after the fourth profits warning in six months. The hit, from cost overruns on a pair of giant new ships, sent the shares to lows not seen since the bad old days of 2008. They recovered slightly after Kennedy’s clear-out, ending on Friday at 76p. That is still more than 80% down from six months ago — bad news for investors and for Dominic O’Connell, this paper’s business editor, who in January tipped Lamprell as his share of the year. To understand where the company may go from here, it is important to have a handle on the man behind the action. Until December 2010, Kennedy was chairman of Wellstream. That is when he sold the oil services group to GE for £800m. The deal was part of the American conglomerate’s push into the lucrative world of selling kit to oil companies. It made another splash in 2007 when it bought Vetco Gray, the services arm of Vetco International. Kennedy chaired that company as well. Which brings us back to Lamprell. At £200m, the company is worth half a billion less than it was in May. At GE’s quarterly earnings announcement last month Jeff Immelt, the chief executive, said he was on the hunt for small, strategic acquisitions to fatten its pipeline of contracts. Lamprell fits the bill. Despite the cost overruns and the indefensible drip-drip approach to revealing them, the company has so far delivered the kit on time. The chance that customers who have placed new orders worth nearly $1.5 billion (£930m) with it will take their business elsewhere looks low. Liberum Capital, the broker, said: “With the [shipbuilding] projects nearing completion and the market anticipating the next warning, this may be the last opportunity to acquire shares at good value.”

The question of there continued survival or not isnt even an issue as far as the companys concerned tbh but forum speculations take many winding turns atb

.......remains confident that it will have sufficient cash flow to fund its ongoing activities and debt repayments." Campden, i note your post on the 25th sept when you mention "no news" regarding Wincarrier 1. I recall mentioning on the board around the time that it was ready & equipped to sail which it did do on October 1st. The rest of my views on Lamprell are direct feedback ive received & corroborate what Evolution 11's informed posts say. ie the core company operations (beyond the windfarm contracts) are solid which should reflect in a continued strong order book & profits going forward into the next financial year. This year we already know will be written off if you like. However, funds are sufficient to service current contracts & debt. The comments regarding shareprice movements with a support around 70p followed by a short term recovery over 100p are easily observed by anyone whose followed this stock. Good news about the change of management. Can anyone else confirm that Accenture have been appointed to independently assess the custom contract processes?

I meant a mkt cap reflecting a 300p+ sp of course - sector expansion & an overhaul of business practice should see that achieved imho

Its the comparison i keep making about the opportunity to by BARC in 2009 when it was sitting at circa 60p - the fundamental, core business is very strong going forward with a strong dividend stream expected off the strong order book, once 2012 & its specific issues are out of the way. Whats left will be a much better, stronger business with a 300p+ mkt cap to reflect that & a dividend revenue stream. good luck all & i really will try to stop posting

Those who are more familiar with the company & price movement know theres a solid support around the 70p mark which has acts as a springboard from which the price moves back up. Thats why they were topping up / buying back withing seconds of the opening yesterday & are more confident of a northward movement from here -others will continue to hope for a better price. The board changes are a positive & a step in the right direction to address some of the investor concerns, especially the larger institutions. The Accenture report will further clarify what we know about the custom & windfarm contract bid procedures & help put systems in place to address the issues - more positives for the larger investors

Lamprell have a good idea what the mistakes have been and specifically with regards to the set contract prices on the windfarm rigs. The point of the independent assessment is to primarily reassure investors (large institutions & retail investors) that those issues have been targeted & are being addressed. It will also cover the companys liability re: the management changes which are being implemented - a large portion of the blame is perceived to be ineptitude on there part. What we'll also see is that the companys core operational activity is extremely robust which provides a solid foundation for growth (& SP appreciation) beyond the windfarm contracts & delays. Ive mentioned before, like lego, that im liquidating some of my larger ftse stocks to increase my holding here. Like BARC when it was circa 60p, LAM is a fundamentally solid stock with very easily identifiable causes for the profit deterioration weve seen. Many of the canny investors were buying the stock at the time whilst others were putting forward uninformed, apocalyptic scenarios & hence missed the opportunity there. I can see LAM make a major recovery in the SP beyond this financial year and when the issues underpinning the losses are addressed. In the shorter term the price movements are fairly predicatble with a support around the 70p followed by a steady move above 100p. Any issues with cash resources for contract progression & debt servicing were mentioned in the last RNS. What im looking at with LAM is to gain as big a holding as possible to set up a income stream from dividends as well as the likelihood for a major capital appreciation (like Barc in early 2009). We obviously cant expect dividends in the near term but the core business is very sound & ive no doubt the company will be able to progress back to profitability soon & service a dividend requirement from holders of the stock. An excellent opportunity for an good dividend paying prospect with major share price appreciation for those that look at the operational side of the company & sector beyond the identified issues (which are being addressed) that have impacted the mkt cap in the first place. atb

Same here - selling more of my BARC to pick up LAM. Once this year is out of the way with the core operations beyond the set price wind farm contracts should see the price moving back towards its previous levels. It should havea good appreciation before then anyway as weve seen recently with its drops off previous profit warnings to around the 70p levels aand then back up over 100p - we've also got a lot more positive sentiment in the general market anyway then at the time of the previous drops. Paradoxocally its a lot like when BARC droppped to around 60p in early 2009 and the canny ones were scoopoing up as many shares as possible at the time. No more posting today from me as quite comfortable cpicking up some more stock here & letting the price recovery do the talking within the timeframes ive set for myself good luck all