sheffieldowls17 Oct 2012 19:08
The question regarding the size of loss & LAM's ability to manage it is obviously the big one for investors to consider. Really depends what "loss for the year will be significantly greater than previously expected." quantifies as.
The other major question relates to there discussions with the lending banks & ability to renegotiate the covenants successfully in line with there cash resources & obligations to current contract completions. The last trading update suggests thats in hand which gives some degree of comfort. If theres a serious stumbling block with regards to those therell 'obviously' be a major collapse of the price
A positive here is that we're around the 80p level (rather then 130p say), which i think factors in a fairly large loss being announced. Thats falling back from the push to the mid 80p level, resulting from what i believe was false speculation on the part of Danny Fortson regarding a takeover 'at this time'.
However, theres certain contributors here whose posts i give deeper consideration to ie your good self, Wobbly, Silverwof & Thegotya (and several others).
Thegotya I know has a deeper 'inside track' into the company then most here so i take his warning of more severe bad news VERY SERIOUSLY. Thats why i think its imperative for people to evaluate there timeframes for investment here & there own liquidity with regards to holding the stock for an extended period of time.
My perspective is & always has been for a large holding looking towards a recovering SP that should 'eventually' provide a strong divident stream. That factors in the possibility of any sharp drop or bad news in the interim & with the security of a very low average.
Obviously a serious liquidity issue for the company itself would be a major threath to that strategy although im looking to the new chairman to have been transparent regarding his recent statement on that issue. I myself have no 'personal knowledge' on the issue beyond the statement given.
In brief i think we may very well see the sharp drop thats being predicted although as long as theres specific reassurance about the companys ability to service debt / contracts, the longer term outlook wouldremain sound. Any uncertainties re: those and the SP will suffer a very serious decline significantly beyond the recent drops imho.
Thats my basic assessment & apologies if my post goes on a bit. iIthink its important i expand on my own reasoning behind the investment & especially regarding the timeframes envisaged
atb