We also have the OPEC discussions coming up in June, which should give the wider markets a boost, if indeed the Saudi and Russian energy ministers follow through on their comments for further production cuts.
Hello Yachtmaster, ' do I think we'll ever get back to 1p'? - It would certainly be interesting to see where we'd get to, moving through the various milestones towards drilling, actual drilling.....and then if we actually struck oil!
Before that, we have the Prospectus to be signed off of course, but I think that will be a formality tbh and for reasons already discussed. It will be highly significant though, as it not only provides the finances to keep COPL running for an extended time period but also effectively gives the Company a much stronger position in negotiating the current contractual issue.
Short term we'll see he initial tranche subscription price of 0.07p per share, imo and we should be well positioned from there.
FTSE open looking good and strengthening at 6000 support, US pushing through easing of lockdown regardless, markets continuing on 'general's uptrend and accepting transient moves..... and further OPEC oil production cuts expected from the talks in June.
We can certainly argue over 8p, 10p, 15p etc.....but with financing in place and somewhat more confidence attached to the oil price, the price level of BPC shares at this juncture, can be put into a more realistic perspective with regards to reasonable price multiples going forward.
The financing deal that Millholland has managed to put together, is a remarkably good one and certainly not what we could have anticipated leading into the current climate.
We have a price significantly in excess of the prevailing SP, staggered equity release over a generous timeframe, clauses favouring COPL in regards to limiting dilution going forward (dependent on ongoing developments).....and restrictions regarding the disposal of new equity shares in the future as well as the price levels for such shares.
This is a very well negotiated deal and shows some not small degree of Confidence by parties to said deal.
It also puts the company through its Partner, in a much stronger negotiating position regarding the current situation being negotiated, with clear funding going forward upon Prospectus clearance.
As we can all agree, a very major Re-rate due on that RNS due to the immense impact it should have on said negotiations as well as clarity regarding the Company's ability to continue over the next couple of years.
FTSE futures up 0.49% atm, overall market sentiment broadly positive moving forward with a strengthening support at the 6000 level, US looking to push through lockdown easing regardless etc.
Expecting the share price here to move towards the Placing price, regardless of any transient variances along the way.
The spread quoted on Lse.co.uk isn't the 'real' spread, which indeed is much narrower - refer to the London Stock Exchange resource.
Regarding the current price, put that into the context of the cleared Prospectus and the prospects for the Company going forward.
Whatever Art Millholland's failings (and there are plenty), the actual financing deal he's put together is a very impressive one indeed.
I was actually surprised reading through the details and hence, not surprised at any large scale strategic Buying that may be taking place.
My Prospectus still needs to e cleared but I am confident of that being communicated to the market in due course (reasons given previously).
Once that RNS is released the company should be in a must more secure position to address the Essar issue, hence why a major Re-rate can reasonably be expected soon.
"which uk companies offer 10% divi?"
A fair few of the major Ftse 250 companies do and even more in the 5-10% range at current prices, accepting that there's some short term disruption expected with some dividend payments.
However, these are major bona fide operations that certainly aren't as speculative as to 'whether or not & by how much' dividends will eventually be paid, as MMX seems to be.
The capital growth component on those major companies from current levels, are likely going to be impressive to.
I've stuck with TLDH/MMX for a long time and frankly getting rather tired of Toby Hall & the whole greedy management culture there.
Fred's influence has passed on to the new crowd....
Some will be seriously considering 'getting off the bus', given the 'discounted' Ftse stocks elsewhere, all with established Dividends.
Toby may deliver 'something's in 18 months but I suspect as usual, he promises slot to smaller shareholders, whilst really looking to line his & fellow directors own pockets.
If there were no bargains elsewhere, maybe, but it's a difficult one to reconcile given the returns available from a diverse array of other established prospects at this time (accepting some are temp deferred) - how does the possibility of a 0.5-1% dividend yield stack up to the 5-10% from some of the biggest UK companies?
Over 10 years here and seen successive Directors continue to generously line their own pockets, whilst promising scraps to private investors who have effectively bankrolled their indulgences....!
Serious decisions to be made, so would be interesting to hear others opinions on the header question - has something been missed?
I think the key question here is, how would this investment be viewed as a 'new prospect' and this particular price level.
That would consider the various more tangible factors such as the likelihood of the Prospectus being cleared, the fact that parties to financing have been willing to participate in such within the current climate, the significant premium of the placing price to the prevailing SP, controlled release and any subsequent disposal of new equity, prospects for macro market recovery.....etc.
I think the Prospectus clearance will be a formality, imo and given the regulators will be well aware of the consequences of not doing so, along with the experience of parties subject to the deal - these aren't 'tin pot's financesrs but parties well experienced in such deals and who would have presented a well constructed case for review.
President Trump has reiterated that the easing of lockdown will continue unabated and regardless of any increasing infection rates, even accepting the uptick in HK etc. - the 'overall' Market recovery should continue accepting transient downturns.
From a fresh perspective and considering the points made, COPL seems heavily discounted atm, imo and I reasonably expect the general price trajectory to the Placing price and major Re-rate once the official RNS is cleared te: Prospectus clearance - the funds from such will certainly give some peace of mind and space to effect the necessary deals, leading to eventual drilling.
Make your own independent decisions based on your own research, regardless of any 'noise' on any BB.
25% up on the London Stock Exchange site and - I'd say the interest is there.
Full Ask being paid at close and I suspect, the move towards the Placing price as mentioned previously.
Atb & have a good evening all
Morning BB, further to the speculation on further Acquisitions to add to the company, I think the buy back is essentially being used to prop up the share price, to facilitate a future Placing required for such, imo - accepting that any such funding requirements would be significantly greater than the cost of the buyback of course.
Toby oft uses private investors to communicate his own narrative to these discussion forums and reflecting his background in the PR sector.
Let's see if we get the Funding /Acquisition RnS as I expect will be the case and long before any dividends are ever returned to shareholders.
From a Stock specific scenario, we can expect a major Re-rate off the cleared Prospectus RNS and regardless of any wider market discussion of future price direction......albeit overall positive from current levels, imo, for reasons stated.
The markets tend to lead events and price them in to an extent, as we've seen with various forecasts including those of recessions from the Govt. / BoE.
However, that doesn't negate or completely mitigate the point you make dnd2136.
As we've seen, the markets have been hit very hard indeed and coupled with the Saudi/ Russia oil fiasco.
What the debate may be, is how much of any future impact has been priced in and accepting the possibility (some would argue likelihood) of market overreaction to an unprecedented set of events?
What we can see is that post recession art predictions, the markets are recovering some of the lost gains, feeding again into the market overreaction scenario.
I'm looking at a continuation of such and also given likely further oil production cuts or some semblance of 'relative' buoyancy to the oil price.....along with the inevitable inward flow of sidelines funds back into equities.
The ftse seems to be comfortable trading above 6000 now and I'd be looking to be back in the markets at this juncture, rather than be out, even with some future erosion off current overall market gains.