RE: 40 - 4524 Jan 2022 09:00
Blockme, do you read anything other than what is on this bulletin board? How can you be so shocked? Macro factors are taking everything down. Yes this could go down further, and yes with a turn in the global outlook, this could go back up. It is somewhat of a waiting game.
What, in my opinion, is in no doubt, it that AFC must deliver on it's existing agreements and show the market it is beginning to deploy its promised systems in the field. Peppered with a couple of new commercial agreements, and I think we will be ok.
It is not uncommon for stock like AFC to be valued at 100X revenue - the likes of ITM certainly are. If you think that this year's revenue will be between £2m and £4m, then 100x would make it the valuation range we've seen within the past few weeks. There is of course, the argument whether 100X should apply to AFC (and whether in the current market speculators are not willing to put 100X on anything), but I would tend to be on the positive side here due to the sector it's in and the promise of the product.
Again, AFC must consistently show tangible, 'material' progress this year in order to hold on to its current market cap, and for that we need positive news flow to steady the ship. I hope this year is different compared to the previous five or six in that regard. If we hit the guidance of £11m in 2023, then we are looking at a market cap of over £1bn (£1.36) in 2023. If in 2023, we are showing the same rate or growth as between 2022 and 2023, then Peel's target is achievable. This could be achievable by the end of this year, but we would have to have taken sufficient forward orders in to 2023 and 2024.
My key concerns are AB's delivery record, and lack of sales announced to get to the £4m this year, and £11m next year, but there is still time for these announcements I guess.