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Well this announcement nullify’s my thinking on Acme / Timo taking over the CLN, unless they are doing it partially, as HCM can convert up to 2 advanced amortisations between bi-monthly repayment periods, up to 9 in a year.

Question is- will HCM use them to sell down / short ; repay an existing short that was getting pressured as volume has recently picked up nicely ; or have they already closed and want to be long the equity as they believe a business transaction is due and will benefit from holding & want further long exposure.

For Faron it appears to be a case of paying in shares to maintain a healthy balance sheet to maximise strength in negotiations, which tells me negotiations are still live and if others enter and the process draws out further than expected, it gives us cash to see that through.

Perhaps a little disappointed Timo / Acme aren’t taking over the CLN as that would, to my mind, ensure they are being held tightly, and perhaps indifferent that Faron are not paying in cash for the aforementioned reasons, but it makes sense as I’m sure Juho is doing everything he can to get SH’s the best deal possible, and likely has a visibility on valuation ranges of deals we are likely to secure, but wants to maintain balance sheet to prevent a raise before deal closure, which to be fair is financially prudent.

Just my own thoughts on it…

Biotech M&A is red hot at the minute.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/novartis-to-buy-avidity-biosciences-for-12-billion/article70207018.ece/amp/

I refuse to rule out that a bid could be tabled to acquire the whole of Faron for Bexmarilimab, we have an investment bank deal making process approaching its close, better and deeper data for both efficacy and safety than Fortyseven when it was acquired by Gilead at ~20x our current market cap, which wasn’t the only company targeting CD47 at the time; meanwhile little old Faron have the keys to the entire Clever-1 target and Juho says to expect & look out for business transactions, while clearly signalling to big pharma that we aren’t under pressure to do a deal wrt cash balance- so get your final proposals in before we weigh up the options and decide whether to partner or be acquired with the focus being on shareholder value.

Our data continues to strengthen at every update, announced at the biggest oncology / haematology conferences on the planet, furthermore as oral presentations; an FDA agreed pivotal pathway to approval with built in AA and trending at ~3x versus standard of care response rates and overall survival for the toughest to treat relapsed / refractory population; a plethora of biomarker possibilities for targeting responders (Clever-1 / sClever-1) making this a true macrophage reprogramming platform play, with target engagement that linearly predicts response rates with highly statistically significant confidence (p=0.0007).

The bexmarilimab antibody is now ready to go and could build out an extensive pipeline for those with cash & pipeline gaps. Bexmarilimab shows efficacy in myeloid malignancies & solid tumours as monotherapy, and has a strong rationale for combinations with PD-1 / L1’s in solid tumours, combinations with other cytotoxics in eg STS, Breast cancer, a ready to build out ADC programs which could combine a cytotoxic with highly sought-after immune boosting Clever 1- blockade for docking the antibody and releasing the kraken. Other options with this HLA-DR presentation boosting drug are options for improving vaccines, and as an adjunct therapy to improve CAR-T cell therapies & radiotherapy.

No matter what anyone says about what we set out to achieve / desire, money talks and when pharma wants its target after having done significant DD in the deal making process, a bid could really be inevitable, and a material update such as a significant bid, MUST be brought to shareholders to decide via a vote.

Is that a sitting duck ? Maybe…

Last one from me for the day.

Worth reading these links about the phenomenal result in the case study which really highlights the differentiation of Bex, its implications beyond MDS, and its ability to overcome the worst genetic profiles in existence.

For a little teaser…

“ The first macrophage reprogrammer that produces true clonal extinction in TP53-mutated disease.

That is pipeline-in-a-product territory.

Companies don’t buy those for “blood cancer pricing.”

They buy them because they become the platform backbone for multi-cancer immunotherapy combos.”

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_68fcb5c8c9c08191a516da6113459029

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_68fcb59a58188191ab0a1cb1dc8ac6ab

The topline ORR efficacy used in that latest link was for the tp-53 mutant sub population- actual = 85% in front line & 63% in R/R.

It’s not perfect at everything but ChatGPT is definitely improving and has its strengths and weaknesses.

Strong benefit-risk profile supports accelerated approval on CR + CReq in frontline HR-MDS. Safety and deep marrow responses favor durable clinical benefit and a high likelihood of later full approval following confirmatory OS data.

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_68fc7cbcbcac8191a7186416dc0c1404

Fairly small data set in front line, but backed up by r/r efficacy and safety of Matins, gives increased confidence.

As responses are developing over time, this gives a strong hint that we are modulating the disease rather than like with a cytotoxic just killing everything in sight.

Bodes exceptionally well given this is all fl (treatment naive) hr MDS data being compared- the exact population the pivotal trial is focused on, and on IWG 2023 criteria, currently trending at around 3x the CR rate ( 45% versus 16-17% for AZA alone).

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_68fc73eac0d08191a844d3da1b4f17e5

Go on the Sax 💪🏼

They might not be aiming for a full buyout, but that’s debatable, as from where I’m sitting, they seem to be giving every chance for a bidder to come out of the woodwork; regardless, unless it’s a paltry offer, they will have to bring credible, firm offers to shareholders. Potential bidders may be being discouraged behind the scenes, but that is unknown, and any serious and bids well above current market cap & above potential value inflections from deal making scenarios, will have to be brought to shareholders, with or without a recommendation from the board. And then it’s up to shareholders to decide…

Looks as though our resident UT accumulator is having to pay a little more to build their position this morning. Been gathering around £1.75 untill today. Let’s keep the heat on as when they are finished it could be one hell of a move due.

As the old saying on Wall Street goes…

The longer building a base…. The higher in outer space

🚀🌖

I see it as one of the largest asymmetric R/R profiles on the market, not without risk but the upside here is plain for all to see.

I’m surprised supply hasn’t dried up long ago, but it has allowed me to build a decent position which to me would be life changing if it plays out as I expect…

Nice work Wolfi 🐺

Like your thinking Qesera but Aza is off patent, in the form that we use it in combination with Bex in MDS, they still have some patent protection in pediatric use and an oral format called Onureg or smth similar.

This is a positive as I see it, as it opens up our treatment approach to many more major pharma co’s or at least prevents any patent barriers with that combination approach.

They do have to be considerable front runners for partnering though, I like Roche, Abbvie, JnJ, Novartis and others too as potential contenders for partnering / acquisition

Roche / Genentech might be becoming my front runners due to having their own immune checkpoint inhibitor, heavy in blood cancers, and exceptionally strong in companion diagnostics which with our recent data on target engagement = response rates (efficacy) builds a strong foundation for acquiring / exploiting the platform potential of Bex with increasing cross over synergies and the potential to own / co develop the next keytruda style blockbuster.

Nicely summarised there Qesera and largely aligned with my thought process.

Just to add, I think a small upfront with significant milestones is a good way to work this style of multi indication partnering deal and sure something could be done with the right partner.

Also can’t rule out a late stage bid, whether that would work out better depends on the valuation…

Should be a solid end to the year…

That’s a nice reply there Sax and adds a few points to some I hadn’t summarised, so just a few small notes from me, possibly crossing over some of what sax has just said…

Little more on LR-MDS- strong rationale as I suggested given low blast count at baselines Potential for 4-6 weekly dosing potentially in low risk MDS, according to Mika Kontro, yet he would prefer the focus is on the outcome of the upcoming phase 3 in hr MDS as it stands, which makes a lot of sense.

AML post transplant study in the Nordics with Bex, Aza and low dose Ven. Sounds very promising as a maintenance type therapy to prolong the benefits and survival of AML post transplant, would suggest some collaboration with Abbvie given Venetoclax is still under patent protection.

Melanoma slide as the first slide in business update section- potentially a hint on solid tumour partnering deal or deal that encompasses both Heme and solids or just solids and allows us to retain more / all of MDS indication. Or potentially seperate deals. High emphasis on shareholder value which is hugely important for us guys.

The survival probability is very good in melanoma as a single agent, its biology also lends well given low fibrosis of tumour, high clever 1 positivity & re-sensitising to pd-1’s via the macrophage switch boosting immunity, un-cloaking the cancer so it is visible to t-cell immunity and overcoming treatment resistance.

For me it’s just a waiting game now and will continue to add if we are having the pi*s taken out of us, as I can afford it.

Just listening back.

Fell asleep earlier after a very long night shift.

Still listening, but had my question answered on Low risk MDS 💪🏼

All sounding very positive, and getting towards the business end of the deal making process….

Juho clearly not ready to commit to any one deal yet which I view as positive. The latest superb data needs time to be digested & worked into models for partnering / acquisition…

Also needs to be strongly considered, from our side, if it’s worth alternative funding sources and retaining full control.

Just listened straight in to the business update, so will summarise anything I found important later.

It feels as though the shake and accumulate continues as we get nearer to a conclusion here……

Https://chatgpt.com/s/t_68f854b079d881918f25ec601e8b853c

Very strong rationale for doubling the total addressable market in terms of treatable patients via low risk MDS disease & biological suitability to Bex.

ChatGPT calls low risk MDS the perfect profile for macrophage-reprogramming immunotherapy.

The global low-risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) market was valued at approximately $3.36 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to around $7.05 billion by 2031.

Geron’s Rytelo was approved in 2024 for low risk MDS and recall from Ralph Hughes’ capital markets day 2024 market research segment is billed at $25,000 per month per patient, ($300,000) per annum. The drug merely treats the side effects, specifically anemia, whereas Bex improves cytopenias & anemia at the level of the bone marrow, thus improving blood counts, likely leading to transfusion independence, possibly even as a monotherapy, as T cell function is restored via restored immunity & the underlying disease is cleared.

I wonder if any of the Faron team will opine on this on Thursdays call?

Exciting times for Faron….

You will see the box checked on the RNS states an acquisition of financial instruments, rather than shares…

Looks as though Timo has done a private placing through Acme-his investment vehicle, to raise cash to pay the CLN, this could spell the end of the CLN repayments in shares; very significant to the stock if so.

The reason I have concluded this is the RNS states it is a private placement, it also states it is an acquisition of voting rights NOT shares, therefore it likely adds up that Timo is paying the CLN with the cash raised via acme which will be converted to equity at a later date as this is the only equity not yet allocated thus is an acquisition of voting rights and not, yet, directly shares.

Very good news, imho.

So you have no analysis, and are just here slating the stock for no reason and with no rationale.

Quite the plonker aren’t you Koozer…

Looks as though Timo is servicing the CLN with cash for rights to stock at a later date. Whether it’s just interest cost or an accelerated amortisation is less clear, but the 307,000 number rings a bell. Will try and dig into it further. This would prevent them being sold into the market depressing the price as has been happening lately. Also could be some house keeping prior to a deal. Looks very positive, and the current suppression of the stock is likely due to some entity or another accumulating stock, imho.