Are BMS, Abbvie &/ or Roche ready to move?6 Nov 2025 09:53
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Not sure they can keep a lid on Farons stock much longer given there are likely, at least, 3 main players urgently needing deals with Faron on Bex.
Venetoclax is co-owned by Abbvie & Genentech (Roche), commercialised in the US via Abbvie & Genentech on a profit / loss sharing arrangement; & globally, ex-US, Abbvie commercialises and pay pre-agreed royalties to Genentech. In 2024 Venetoclax sales were $2.6bn and continue to grow.
Bexmarilimab is key to Abbvie & Genentech defending their hematology franchise as patents expire in around 6-7 years for which they will already be preparing for.
The likelihood is Bex can extend their patents in AML via a sequenced / combined new patent for Bex + Ven to extend overall survival in AML and get them the HR MDS market they just failed to conquer in the Verona trial, making a deal for Bex both expansive and defensive.
BMS likely being another key player who would have major synergies and pipeline expansion potential with Bex. BMS have owned the HMA market for many years and have vast legacy interests in AML / MDS and more broadly through Aza, but now are limited via patent expiry to an oral version, and separately pediatric use.
They also have a strong synergy and urgency given their PD-1 franchise, Opdivo, which could make the perfect partner for Bex in solid tumours. The Opdivo patent expires in 2028, meaning combination patents and sequenced patents could be the answer to expanding their franchise in the areas already within solid tumors and expanding to other indications the biology of Bex, as a pure IO play, could open up.
Therefore, BMS too have an expansive and defensive MO to acquire / partner bexmarilimab, over much broader application . Furthermore, Bex may re sensitise / create PD-1 sensitivity to bone marrow blasts, potentially removing the need for a toxic drug altogether.
So both (if Genentech / Abbvie) act in concert, or all 3 if not, are likely very incentivised to outbid each other before Bex gets any closer to approvals and the price tag to do so increases rapidly; furthermore many more PD-1/L1 players could potentially enter as solid tumour synergies become clear as the combination data begins to emerge & the myeloid malignancy potential becomes too considerable to ignore, meaning leaving it later is likely to be more costly than paying for a fair deal earlier.
Hard to pick a winner in this scenario given that MDS has stronger, more advanced data, likely transferring to AML given biological rationale, perhaps favouring Genentech & Abbvie, but with BMS having potentially broader and much needed synergies in solid tumours while reviving, at least in part, their old hematology franchise, which could be done in one fell swoop.
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