Scenario29 Oct 2025 08:28
You are part of the M&A Committee at Gilead and sitting down for a meeting with the Business Development Team who report regularly on scouting of the latest biotech targets for M&A at major healthcare conferences.
Faron is discussed in depth as their data continues to shine and improve as they present orals at all major healthcare conferences.
You were a key decision maker in the acquisition of Forty Seven for $4.9Bn and still believe in the enormous upside in macrophage reprogramming as the next breakthrough in haematology, specifically in myeloid malignancies, which is being borne out by Bexmarilimab as every prestigious update is coveted at ASCO, EHA, Esmo, ASH & MDS conference’s of 2024 / 2025.
You know your advice ended up costing billions in failed acquisition & development costs. You want redemption. You want to end your career with a swan song that papers over the Forty Seven debacle, you want bonuses tied to a success story and you know inside and out what the errors were that lead to the failure of Magrolimab in the clinic.
You have a chance at acquiring Faron for 1/10th of the price you laid out for Forty Seven, until you have de-risked it up until the point it gets Accelerated Approvals and is revenue generating in the entire high risk MDS population and will likely be used off-label in AML, until trails there can be concluded.
The target already has ~3x overall survival data (the most significant endpoint in all clinical trials) over standard of care in last line relapsed / refractory patients, the toughest to treat population within this indication, you have a Matins trial, which didn’t reach a maximum tolerated dose even at 10mg / kg dosing and certainly wasn’t creating additional anaemia / cytopenia and was prolonging survival by ~3x or more in responders; you have a drug working in MDS which is actually making the underlying disease subside and all blood counts and cytogenetic markers improve. It also happens to be eclipsing Magrolimabs CR rate, bridging 23% of patients to curative transplant in the overall data set and 35% in front line, while the most aggressive genetic mutations are no longer guaranteed and rapid death sentences.
There is massive scientific praise and honour for companies that can bring such a drug to market in an indication with such desperate unmet need. Exactly the area Big Pharma focus as it minimises competition, leads to bumper drug prices and is rapidly adopted, making returns and profits large, fast & sustainable.
So, say you are on the M&A committee / business development team at Gilead and Faron are sat in this position, do you strongly advise options such as the format of the deal outlined below as your major chance at redemption, massive scientific kudos and bumper profits and bonuses?
Deal:
upfront fee of ~€500m,
major milestones eg AA approval ~€1,500m
Full approval in MDS €2,000m -€3,000m
Total deal value ~€4-5bn
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