Canaccord and (encouraging) pricing trends25 Nov 2020 15:52
fwiw, the reason that we see continued buying today despite a softer overall tape and some profit taking in the sector , is 1. because AFC Energy, IES's closest comparable in size, also had a major contract win recently and continues to surge, keeping IES looking 'cheap' in comparison. Like IES, AFC have doubled this month, but that leaves the hydrogen storage name - which is still behind us in order book and time-to-profitability - at a significant enterprise value premium around 25% even though they are further from profitability ; and 2. (the main reason): Canaccord have effectively lifted their price target from 200p to 260p. I cannot share the report (hopefully someone else can), but the pt raise is mainly on the back of the Yadlamalka Energy contract and that it effectively de-risks their 2021 sales projections. In addition however, and clearly much more importantly, pricing on all 3 of IES's 2H contract announcements seem to have come in above Canaccord's early stage $800/kWh assumption, so they now see their related gross margin assumption of around 0% was (way) too conservative. This early pricing trend is clearly potential big news for shareholders if it continues as economies of scale will naturally bring down our unit costs as sales pick up further. For now, Canaccord is lifting its price target, but this bears particular attention going forward as the implications for future profitability are significant. Watch this space.....