RE: Apples and Oranges15 Apr 2025 16:44
Purely for speculation, and some research, here's an early stage scenario comparison of preliminary assumptions for Galactica (based on State 16) and Rukwa (based on ITW1). Hypothetically, both test wells have rather similar assumed flows of helium for optimised production, both projects have a chance of producing roughly similar commercial returns per well if developed, give or take some very wide error margins and working assumptions, could be more or less, with 15 wells currently planned for Galactica, 30 wells planned for Rukwa. 50% profit share at Galactica, unknown profit share at Rukwa, 10x difference in capex, etc
+-----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+
| Category | Galactica (State-16 type) | Rukwa (ITW1 type) |
+-----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+
| Helium yield per well | ~6,000 scf/day (2.17% of 300k scf/d) | ~6,000 scf/day (5.5%, solution gas) |
| Processing challenges | CO₂ removal | Degassing, water disposal |
| Overall complexity | Lower | Higher |
| Processing requirement | CO₂ scrubbing + helium purification | Degassing (artificial lift), drying, purification |
| Energy / Infrastructure | Lower (dry gas system) | Higher (requires pumps/separators) |
| Low revenue case per well | ~$1.2M – $280K opex = $920K | ~$1.1M – $340K opex = $760K |
| High revenue case per well | ~$1.8M – $280K opex = $1.52M | ~$1.7M – $340K opex = $1.36M |
+-----------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------------+
In the absence of more info, we might be hopeful that each well could clear at least $1m per year. Any thoughts, alternative assumptions or scenarios?