RE: Inside the Troll Brain: A Dangerous Expedition21 Apr 2025 11:14
Situations change. The point is that the company now has both Galactica and Rukwa, two commercial projects in development and in different global markets, one nearing production and one entering appraisal stage. The real value story for this company has changed, and it won't come from realisation of a single project but their ability to roll out the revised business strategy of moving from explorer to producer by acquiring and developing a portfolio of projects globally. Galactica is crucial to that proof of concept and the reinvestment is very modest. They need to drill another nine wells in phase two and we've seen how quickly and cheaply that can be done (let's say under $5m, and this time HE1 will only be paying half). The processing plant will be up and running already in phase one, so that's potentially than less than 12 months profit to reinvest and they'll have 50% share in a 15 well production field netting them a clear $5-10m pa with zero debt. That alone would be worth most of the current mcap at 5-10x P/E. Rukwa could double that income in time if they can drill enough wells but potential revenue per well doesn't look as profitable yet. The signals so far are that they're looking at an appraisal phase using a pilot scale processing plant to prove up the model, we'll have to wait and see. Either way, the medium term market value of Rukwa probably hinges more on confirmation of the strategic NAV than on revenue, which hopefully is a big number.