Member Info for Blubay

Anyone who stays in any share just “to get my money back” is a fool. You stay in a share because you believe it will return sufficient to meet your target in your timeframe, whatever those are.

Sure, it’s a tight enough runway until there are sustainable cash revenues from Colorado but they did a lot of work to reduce overheads and running costs. Working capital requirements are small and so far they’re well within planned budget for the Galactica project, otherwise they wouldn’t be drilling the final well. There’s not likely to be a raise for Tanzania and there may be options to draw on Colorado revenue (if necessary), so at the moment I see far more opportunities than risks here.

No fund raise is currently scheduled, as per the AGM last December. The Board withdrew its authority to issue any new shares without prior approval of shareholders. That remains the case until the next AGM, or unless an EGM is called. The company had sufficient cash to operate for 12 months at that point and all planned operations in Colorado were fully funded through to commercial production.

Is it within the same county? The five permits were for Las Animas but I didn’t check where the county line falls.

I think they must have an existing Form 2 back when State 16 was drilled because I can’t see it on any recently approved or pending list (ECMC only shows recent timeline and I haven’t delved back further).

Colorado will not be financing Rukwa. The Tanzanian product will be ring fenced in a separate company established for that purpose, and that company will be negotiating its own finance in Tanzania.

The distinguishing thing about Rukwa is that it’s a rare discovery (geologically unique?) with the potential to extract commercial gas from a hydrological system, perpetually, due to (a) high helium concentration,

(b) lack of contamination, (c) access to the primary helium source. It’s not just a trap and seal reservoir contaminated with water. That’s the whole point.

The best bit is that they are going straight on to drill State 9, which means they’re on track and on budget to complete that within this phase. State 9 will also provide a link between the southern cluster of wells now developed and the northern cluster of nine more wells planned for phase two.

Pad construction underway so it looks like they’re good to go (I haven’t seen a Form 2 permit)

Https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250506/pdf/06jfkpgypv11zm.pdf

More great news, Jackson 2 well completed with free gas flowing. Five wells down without a hitch. Will be interesting to see if they go for a sixth (State 9).

More imminently, completion of wells 5 and 6 in Colorado, tie back to new processing plant and start producing commercial gases for the first time. That’ll be a huge achievement if it goes to plan. Rukwa is a large long term project to be developed over 10+ years. It’ll come in stages, it’s unlikely to be settled all at once. It’s only entering the commercial appraisal stage, but if there’s financial backing for it that should be big news.

That’s stupid, there is absolutely no reason for that whatsoever. It’s just a normal bureaucratic process.

Why would silence from Tanzania concern you? It’s a perfectly normal part of the process. We already have confirmation that the final regulatory stages are in motion.

Last issue price remains the price to beat for sure but the raise was only a 10% dilution at the time, so not sure how significant it is. There’s been pretty consistent selling into that level but hopefully it breaks through.

The 99% slide on HE1 was the big chance to average down at the 0.25p emergency cash raise. They could have gone into administration but the modelling was good and that was a huge opportunity. Risky but worked out so far

Crypt - How do you know “the discovery at Rukwa was far bigger than originally thought”? Nothing’s been published on the resource size since the prospective estimates prior to drilling and discovery. We don’t have an estimate of recoverable or contingent reserves at all. Where are you getting this from?

Don’t pay any heed Doozer, the board is pretty toxic and it’s fairly obvious from your posting history that’s it’s a half decent question.

All the usual risks of any early stage AIM explorer pre-earnings (it doesn’t get much more risky). Investors will always have an eye on cash burn and future fund raising. The plus is that HE1 are very close to banking their first commercial revenues, possibly within weeks, and starting on the journey from explorer to commercial producer. That will take time (therefore risk) but it’s potentially transformative.

Anything that involves drilling holes is risky in terms of snags or delays, or poor results, but they’ve nearly completed six wells in Colorado without a major hitch (so far). Mixed results but still on track. Commercial gases are flowing so a big reduction in risk there. And all fully funded to production if nothing goes wrong.

The bigger project in Tanzania is higher risk/reward. Drilling deep holes there is more risky and expensive, and they may need to drill a lot of wells over several years before it really pays back. On the plus side, they are sitting on a very significant gas resource which may be worth a lot (but first they have to prove that). The key risk is the current unknown status of financing options. They’ll need to borrow a lot of money or partner up with someone who can pay for the development (at a price). But they’re in final stage of regulatory approval now, so it all looks like it’s going ahead.

A lot’s been de risked over the past year, a lot remains to be seen, hence the share price hasn’t moved much recently.

And maybe closer to 7 or 8 miles (?)

Someone asked about gathering pipelines linking the Galactica wells back to the Pinon Canyon processing plant. The wells are located roughly a mile apart as the crow flies, but following the service roads each section is probably averaging a bit more, so maybe 10 miles of pipeline to lay (rough guess?).