Member Info for Blubay

Unless you have some kind of inside information to the contrary then that is the plan, as published and advised to the market on several occasions. The engineering study to commission processing specs included provision for a pilot plant, as basis for expansion, so it's entirely possible they bring proof of concept gas to market in 12 months after licencing. Whether that happens in practice is of course a matter for speculation.

Happy - "The line about 1st production in Rukwa in 12 months made me laugh so much a little bit of wee came out"

Maybe have a word with the company then (see Slide 4 from December AGM, Pathway to discovery and commercialisation)

"Planning for first gas from Southern Rukwa Helium Project 12 months from award of ML by Government of Tanzania"

https://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/241216_HE1_AGM-Presentation_FINAL.pdf

The original schedule was for first production at Galactica in the ‘first half’ of 2025. Although there was some bad weather initially BNL did say they were still on track a few weeks ago. All 7 wells should be complete this week. They have planning permit for the modular processing plant, which is relatively straightforward, and they need to lay pipe work back from one or more wells to get started. It’s a lot to do in five weeks but they’ve been very efficient so far. All fully funded, so no raise required.

The CEO estimated first production at Rukwa in approximately 12 months from award of licence, so that’ll be next year.

According to attendee reports of the Invest Africa event last week she may have commented that this is in process.

Flow tests for State 9 will be interesting to see in a week or so, but really hopefully with confirmation and scheduling for the processing plant and tie back.

Slide 9 in the AGM presentation

https://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/241216_HE1_AGM-Presentation_FINAL.pdf

Happy - as you know, HE1 commissioned an extensive engineering study over a year ago now to specify an appropriate processing plant system for the project, which came in significantly under cost expectation, albeit half the budget (as reported by the CFO at the AGM in December)

Quite the reverse

Using CFDs or spread bets is a perfectly legal activity, who on earth cares if posters own or don't own shares, or are thinking about buying shares, or have sold shares? It's a public discussion board not a religious cult. The only issue is whether posts disrupt, abuse or mislead, isn't it?

As expected the hearsay thread has disappeared, so if you didn't hear the hearsay you'll have to guess...

Because 'he is invested' Cat, in a short position, which is a perfectly legitimate position to take on any share. He believes the price is going down and he has bet on that, so he makes money every time it goes down, and obviously he's going to talk that game. No problem in choosing to take that position if it's backed up and not just spreading false or misleading information (which it often is).

Give us your numbers to demonstrate your reasoning.

No-one is talking about a $100m up front investment, that's the estimated total capex for full project development over a multi year timeframe, and early production would feedback into subsequent development with increasing economies of scale. Even if the government might, for example, broker a national/foreign investment to the processing plant (as national infrastructure under the domestic mineral benefaction policy) and HE1 handles the drilling side, say for a 50-50 equity split in the SPV then you are still looking at multi million dollar annual profits over the lifetime. Not without risk of course, and we need to see the development plan and the CPR.

And HappyDazes has said a share raise is imminent every day for the past 9 months. There's no way of knowing. We know the licence application has been accepted, the conditions met, fees paid, and the new company that will operate the project has been named, otherwise just hearsay. Could be news on Monday, could be a month, could be longer. Also no way of knowing exactly what news to expect.

At this stage in the project the operational responsibilities will pass from HE1’s beneficial interest to Songwe Helium Ltd (the SPV). Songwe will raise the debt and equity in TZ for Rukwa development, not HE1 (not directly anyway). So HE1 won’t be diluting their shareholders (directly). Instead, the SPV will be diluting HE1’s share in the operation (it can’t dilute the government’s preferential share). The question is how much equity can HE1 retain, not how many shares they will issue. There are various models as outlined.

Yeah but I think we need a bit more than ChatGPT to inform the analysis. I’m very open to raising expectations for SP target beyond the broker target if justified (although AIM broker targets often turn out to be a bit optimistic). I’m just looking for sound justifications. 30 wells at 6mcf/d in 3-5 years drilling time would be great but I’m not sure the market would value that at half a billion pounds. Is this based on assumptions of higher helium concentrations than the ITW1 well test, or higher flow rates in production, or more wells than initially indicated?

I’m very optimistic about the future development of this company, and I think it’s overdue a decent rerate, but I’m not clear how first production from the Rukwa project (in say 12 months after licence award) gets you to a half billion pound mcap. What are the economic assumptions for that?

Same here, very fortunate, bit of a gamble at the time but doubled my investment during that raise and later sold half after it recovered, so no particular stress on the free ride since then. It was a risk but I genuinely believed the board was capable of delivering production, which I still think they will.

They are indeed pure guesswork, solely based on the predicted best optimised flow rates from ITW1 (about 6mcf/d helium with artificial lift) but I do hope to be pleasantly surprised by their plans for field and well engineering to exceed that baseline.

“Based on the Helix estimates rns’d today that gives us a circa $13m usd pa.”

I don’t think you can read across comparisons in that way. The initial projections for Colorado might suggest perhaps $1.5m gross per well, with perhaps a third of that net to HE1, so maybe $3m per year from 6 or 7 wells (maybe more), maybe $10m or more a year from the full 15-16 wells. For Rukwa, very hard to predict depending on costs. If the future wells performed as ITW1 is expected then maybe $1m gross per year per well helium (?) but hard to judge the margin or equity split, maybe $300k per well (wild guess?) x 30 for another $10m net per year to HE1 in a few years (?). No way of knowing til we have production data for both fields. I guess they’ll have a third project by then anyway.

Willy - "No idea where 16 came from in other response"

That'll be phase one of the Colorado project development, the State 16 discovery well + 6 new wells + 9 more to come = 16