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"I am evidently speculating but I am aware of similar arrangements having been executed elsewhere."

I agree it's a plausible speculation and, as you say, not without precedent. Not sure how repeatable it is, or at what price, but the three way debt consortium will have been organised on more than a whim.

Also a possibility

Definitely looks as though the short term CLN conversion blocks have been sold at a pre-negotiated price to a significant buyer rather than traded onto the market, also on terms that will tend to stabilise the price and VWAP. Should be another 50m share block somewhere.

That's got to be a pre-arranged cross between institutions reported as ordinary for transparency and possibly timed to stabilise the daily VWAP (from 0.55p towards 0.65p) and giving the potential conversion price a boost above 0.45p (that one trade would raise the hypothetical convert price by 3-4%). Just hypothetically of course.

I'm still cautious. It's looks a long way out, even for a premium bulk buy. Could it be some kind of Off-book / pre-arranged cross between two institutions independent of market pressure? Way out of the norm. It could represent a sale of CLNs into equity for example.

CLN investor converts notes into equity at 0.5p (e.g. £250k nominal = 50m shares). They arrange to sell that converted block 0.68p in one go for 36% profit.

The CLN investor is acting like a short-term financier to derisk and flip quickly but shares go to an agreed strong hand buyer at a premium, rather than being dumped into the market at a discount (and stabilise the VWAP). Possible defence of share price against dilution. Possible move to become material shareholder?

Several millions shares traded after that trade and barely any change in spread, no shortage of shares, very odd, unless they were in a hell of a rush who gives their client 0.68p at 0.50/0.55? They had half an hour left to divide that one up if they wanted to.

Incredibly paying a 23% premium for that trade if correct

There has been a spate over recent days where the largest trade of the day is accidentally 'misreported' as OTC during trading and corrected to Ordinary at the end. The significance is that only ordinary trades are accounted in the calculation of VWAP. All purely coincidental of course.

"this SP moves fast on the right news at the right time."

which is basically the equivalent of "wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend" but stretched over a few weeks. When there is a significant RNS the price may well move, I hope so, but like Pete says, whether it moves that fast depends on the news and the MREX 'investors'. We're already expecting news of ESP appraisal in Q4, and we're expecting the processing plant to be built in Colorado, and it's all funded, but the price has gone down (due to the uncertain nature of the funding). It's hard to put a finger on the next news that will move the price fast other than some unexpected financial resolution or some unexpected test result. BNL release their news overnight and RNS usually come before trading opens. Consider, what is the news you think will move the price fast, when do you expect it, what is the opportunity cost of waiting for that event, and how much of the gain are you going to miss during the first 10 seconds of trading if you didn't wait for it and just acted on the RNS?

That might be the case if it was a fixed price equity offering. The uncertainty here is that it was a first tranche conversion of only one tenth of the total available for conversion, and no information about the intentions of the 'investors' holding the remaining 90% of conversion rights, for which there is no fixed price, or news about the detail of the funded operational plans. There are lots of reasons why investors might choose to convert another tranche or wait longer but the market has to weigh up the risk and uncertainty in absence of any other news. Just now, we don't have much else to go on apart from the conversion factor and a general commitment to operational progress in Q4.

"It is just a case of will it go below 0.50 and stay there for anytime or go even lower."

Impossible to know in the absence of more knowledge about MREX and their 'investors'. As things stand, we saw first tranche conversion at the point where the conversion formula flipped over from option (i) to option (ii). After yesterday's high volume / low price trading that's now flipped back the other side. That brought 92.5% of the ten day VWAP down to around 0.56p, and the hypothetical conversion price to around 0.45p. That might wobble a bit after today (because 5 and 7 August were quite high volume days with different pricing weights) but then settle a bit lower as we start to knock out more recent days from the ten day average. It will be interesting to see if the formula flips again or whether the discounted average stays higher than the lowest single day.

Yes, I really would like to hear more about that and perhaps we hear more after the BNL shareholder meeting. I can imagine two or three scenarios but there's clearly a wide gap between BNL allocating AUD4.5m ($2.9) and HE1 allocating GBP4.5m ($6m) for the same objective in a project operated on a 50-50 basis. First, we know BNL have near zero cash but I guess it's possible that they have some kind of outstanding credit line with ASXI for the plant they made down payment on at Voyager that was never installed (long shot). Second, HE1 may have raised sufficient for their contribution to phase 2 development as well as phase 1, while BNL were only able to raise for phase 1 completion and have to raise again later. Third, HE1 may have raised a contingency to buy out more of BNL's project share if BNL prove unable to continue funding their half (?). Any other ideas?

"Lorna let's get news"

Assuming the processing plant has progressed from the drawing board, news will come after BNL have held their shareholder vote on 19 September. Until then they can't implement the share equity needed for Galactica development. There could be news on tendering the well services and the electric pump for Itumbula, depending whether it's available in country or import to Tanzania ('long lead items' etc), but Q4 is the target zone for operations on both projects which is approx six weeks away.

"Who would have thought?"

Hopefully everyone?

“principal finding: investors tend to ignore information that does not conform to their current sentiment.”

https://www.rit.edu/spotlights/research-insights-cognitive-dissonance-investor-decision-making

This is all a bit weird Toffers. I have no other identity and have never emailed you or anyone else here. I do own some shares in HE1 and have done since 2021. I did own a lot more and maintaining that holding at roughly break even cost, as I was adding shares on company assurances of near term production in Colorado in H1. When that was delayed by six months I sold the added portion of shares at cost price, with a view to buying them back when production was due again. I then sold a much larger portion on news of the CLN funding agreement, again at my cost price stop loss. So I remain very optimistic about the company’s debates plans now they have funding and I still have all my investment, which I’m happy to reinvest when there’s more operational clarity. Is that a problem?

I think I’ve remained consistently positive and optimistic about the company’s potential for future success. I haven’t predicted a future share price, either up or down but I don’t think it’s at all controversial to respond prudently as an investor to RNS of operational delay or dilutive financing.

Toffers - but you are one of the person giving misleading financial advice to other people, telling them to buy or hold shares throughout a predictable period of rapid price decline and potentially losing them a lot of money. Is that not the very definition of trolling?

“ when it turns for the good, you and the rest of the negative gang here will not be seen for dust.”

Wouldn’t it be more logical and profitable for said ‘gang’ to be negative when things turn bad and positive when things turn good?

According to the RNS

“The Investors may elect to convert the £10 million Advance into ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares") in the Company at any time and in any such proportion as they so choose upon delivery to the Company of a notice of conversion ("Conversion Notice").”