Member Info for Blubay

As you chose to hold through the drop so presumably you were comfortable with the prospect of either price recovery or averaging down?

How would they sign a JV with a major before they have commercially proven reserves? Project funding will come when they can prove up the contingent/prospective to satisfaction of an independent CPR. Hopefully the ESP appraisal helps to achieve that.

I decided not to this time around as I’d like more information to balance the risk, but very happy for those who bid if they got what they asked for.

First come first served, or demand rationed?

Also a question I have. No doubt there is more in the agreement text but the summary RNS says only that the advance can be converted, or it is repayable after 12 months if not converted, or there is 12% interest case of default. It also says that the board assumes the share authority will be used to covert the shares.

The investors can choose at any time within 12 months to convert all or any part of their cash advance to new ordinary shares at the stated discount on the date of their declaration (80% of 92.5% of the ten day VWAP). The market should be informed as soon as possible after this occurred.

Let’s hope so but it is quite an optimistic view of ‘investors’ in an MREX run AIM CLN agreement. I would imagine they’re more likely to be engaged for the one off capital event than as long term shareholders, but we’ll see. They’re only in for £3.3m each and there may be scope for them to play both ways. I’d like to see a break above yesterday’s uncertain trading range for initial signs of confirmation.

In full? Well done. Does this mean they’re issuing additional shares to meet the over subscribed demand (using the discretionary authority)?

I'm still a bit wary about the VWAP and if/when the anonymous investors choose to declare their hand or call in their conversions. If we could get back towards 0.9p (roughly when the raise was announced) then their potential conversion price would be closer to where the market price is today (say around 0.66p), and still retain a bit of headroom above the retail offer. If we stay for longer where we are now then I still feel there's a risk they'll start calling it in lower. Maybe we'll learn a bit more about the agreement when it's finalised.

“A further announcement will be made in due course regarding the total proceeds to be accepted and the number of ordinary shares to be issued”

Definitely hope moving into first production revenue would be a transformational moment for the company. Obviously have to keep an eye also on the new investors’ share conversions within the 12 month period, and whether they sell into any rises.

Rukwa is an adventurous long term project, pre investment decision and just entering its appraisal stage. Colorado is proven and very near to market, so I’d be focusing hard on that while watching Rukwa with a hopeful eye. Lots of news to come anyway.

Let’s hope so. First to evidence the flow rate can be achieved for the discovery, then to evidence a model that shows how it can be achieved for additional wells tapping the same reservoir. The other sticky point for the CPR seems to be gas water ratio, given the variability between different samples, so hopefully that becomes more certain in sustained testing too.

5 August ‘prior to this announcement’

“To be eligible to participate in the WRAP Retail Offer, applicants must be a customer of a participating intermediary and prior to the release of this announcement, shareholders in the Company which may include individuals aged 18 years or over, companies and other bodies corporate, partnerships, trusts, associations and other unincorporated organisations.“

London - it’s the higher estimate (company’s best case) that they’re hoping to prove with the submersible pump. The CPR acknowledged that scenario but took a more cautious view on its practical probability, pre appraisal. There might be additional well engineering that could also increase flow (e.g. side tracking was mentioned) but the constraining factor identified in the CPR seems to be gas ratio and flow, versus spacing between wells, versus reservoir depletion. The ideal long term scenario would be the sweet spot of sustainable rather than declining production levels, if it justifies the investment.

I think if they can reliably get to production and first revenue then we might see the share consolidation then. Not sure about Rukwa timescale though. My guess would be that while there’s still a chance of relying on dilution rather than project funding they might hold off for that milestone.

Thanks MC, if there’s possibility of added value from the additional investment in Galactica then that would be a positive at least.

It’s perhaps worth noting that only ordinary trades are included in the official VWAP, turnover, and volume stats . If the biggest trade of the day was ‘accidentally’ logged as OTC, it would have been missing from the feed and excluded from VWAP calculations until corrected. 🤔

It’s a corrected trade from earlier, originally reported as OTC.

Retail offer closes end of Thursday trading. I guess we have to wait and see which way the market price moves in response, and whether there will be any additional news to add this week.