Member Info for Blubay

If BTC doubles why would ARB increase 4x ?

Not today it won’t. It’ll start at $39k and probably rise towards $50k by tomorrow.

BTC steering towards $39k at 8am for today’s options expiry then likely drifting up towards €49-50k by same time tomorrow (unless there are any other surprises in store). Playing to the bookies’ hand so far. Hopefully ARB heads in the same direction.

High / Low 125.00 / 96.50
Bid / Offer 125.00 / 125.00
...closing price 116.00 ??

Won't be forgetting that stage show in a while
https://imgur.com/gNfHNLq

Some of those whales would also want BTC to hit $50k on Friday morning to optimise their return on options expiry.

hundreds of trades at 124-5p

https://www.binance.com/en/blog/421499824684900382/A-Beginners-Guide-To-Funding-Rates

...sorry, I'm a day ahead of myself with all the excitement, I meant Friday's expiry

The option writers will want to steer BTC north of $40k before tomorrow's deadline for options expiry if they can muster enough support (their optimum target would be in the region of $50k)

There wasn't much new in yesterday's China news flash. It was more of a reminder of official policy since 2017 or so. You can guarantee the main BTC holders are not too distant from the Party and it sure hasn't stopped them mining yet.

True, yes

somewhere between $7.5k and $10k probably

and as expected, ARB is running ahead of the rise in BTC

Altitude 36,000, oxygen supply restored

Not to mention the institutional tug of war over BTC price coming into tomorrow's options expiry (the option writers will want BTC to land a lot higher than it is now).

"sold my at a loss of 50k"
"I sold mine at a loss of 500K"

Sorry for your losses, it's a pity you weren't in a position to hold but good luck

Here's the customary pretty picture for reference https://imgur.com/EHwOlcU

It was following BTC from the beginning of the year until mid February, then it wasn't because it was overbought, now it's following BTC again since about 10 days ago. It seems to amplify or leverage BTC movements rather than trace them. Who knows if it will continue to do so to the same extent or whether it will establish more stable trend over time.

@plode - agree that echo chambers are a problem, interested in your thoughts. Would you like to expand a bit on your numbers/reasoning here? Let's agree it's a good investment over your two year timescale and likely to leverage above growth rate in BTC as value is added from increasing productivity and diversification. But what's the basis for your 12-24 month long 'massacre' (beyond the range of short-term volatility)? I've no doubt prices will fluctuate up and down often but isn't it more likely that BTC (and hopefully ARB) will have perhaps doubled in price at some point before the end of this year? Isn't also likely that BTC will be closer to $50k than $40k by this weekend?