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Why?

The questioner was asking (in effect) how the P/E equate to the current market cap.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HE1/exercise-of-warrants-and-issue-of-equity/14986126

Morning. It’s a young growth company so opinion on value really depends on your assessment of likely future earnings/holdings rather than today’s balance sheet. Consider planned increases in productivity, accumulation of holdings, future value of those holdings. For example, let’s say that adds up to 100m annual earnings by the end of this year. If you think that’s sustainable in the future you can multiply it by at least 10 (or 20 if you feel bold). So, let’s say 1bn cap (or 2bn). If you prefer to project that 12, 18, 24 months ahead you might get higher numbers. Then start factoring in assumptions about increase in the price of BTC. Do you think it will be higher inext year of the year after, or in five years time? Adjust your estimates accordingly (multiply earnings and holdings). What happens if BTC goes down instead of up. Consider also the likely competition, sustainability, the regulatory environment etc. It’s not an exact science. Growth stocks are risky and volatile precisely because their value relies on opinion and future assumptions. A value of 1-2bn in September seems reasonable to me. It might sound very cautious to a bullish investor or very optimistic to a BTC skeptic. Look at the RNS, annual and monthly. Look at some BTC futures models (the S2F model versus end of bull run models). Write down some numbers, DYOR and be clear about what is known and what assumptions you’re happy to make. Good luck!

I don’t think there’s any way to predict that short term on a stock as volatile as this. Will it get close to 150 tomorrow, maybe, maybe not? After the Friday options liquidations BTC could go anywhere in the next few days. It might hold up, it might dip, it might bounce. End of next week it might be up a bit. Hard to say. Come back in September, you might have made a good return.

“ Do some research and you’ll see for yourself”

...that the modelling predicts the BTC cycle might peak around September/October

Open / Close 125.00 / 135.00 ...up 16% :-)
High / Low 136.00 / 121.00
Bid / Offer 130.00 / 135.00

Point well made

as far as today is concerned... https://imgur.com/acRLHmX

Options expiry date tomorrow, the big bookies need their horse to cross the line at about $50k to pay off.

temporarily, yes

The option writers will be hoping to land the price at $49-50k by the morning to optimise the due expiries, and then around $54k a week later.

@K3 maybe give it a rest, you seem to be trolling Xenor repeatedly without cause, it’s not pretty

@TIger - on GDR 30 April - "My research never fails me ... Now you really do not want to be out of this over the weekend"

30 April - 87p
5 May - 75p (-14%)
13 May - 67p (-23%)

@Xenor = "I think I'm just worrying too much because I'm losing a lot of money on this share."

Sorry for losses and I hope that comes right for you, and everyone else. It's all about balancing timescales with what proportion of your portfolio you feel comfortable tying into a volatile stock. As others said, the risk of continuing to buy in and average down is getting over committed and not being able to get at your cash when you need to (e.g. if you need your money back by a specific time). There's really nothing wrong with splitting a loss and doing something more productive with what's left while waiting for the remainder to grow, whether you use it for a shorter term growth investment or just for a holiday. Whatever you're comfortable with. What I would say is have some personal ground rules and stick to them if you can. Mental health is worth more than numbers on a screen. If you feel better having 10% in risky stuff and 90% in safe stuff then go for it (to be honest I've made more on my FTSE100 tracker fund, Lloyds, Aviva and HSBC recently than on Argo, but hopefully that will change at some point!).

@Hexam - "I suspect for Arb many are investing without quantifying future profits at all - rather that it is simply in the Crypto space and 'going to the moon' or they just like the company and what it is doing. "

You're not wrong there :-)

@Hexam - "That assumes though that this is how everybody is valuing this share which I very much doubt."

I think that's fair. Growing companies are valued against future earnings, the debate is about how far into the future and what growth multiple to apply at any given time. For ARB there is (a) predicted growth in productivity, and (b) predicted growth in asset value. Some of that is in the bag and some of it is speculative. We can already predict roughly what the productivity level and accumulated asset size might be over the next 12 months. Predicting the asset value is obviously a bit more tricky. Projecting too far into the future then becomes less clear, in terms of sustainability, competition, regulatory environment, share dilution, and the whole crypto market etc. So it really is an investment choice whether to value the SP at 1x or 10x or 100x known asset value or known earnings (divided by however many shares might be in issue).

Seems within the bounds of reason but wouldn't surprised if it's held back a bit by hesitancy or lack of volume after yesterday.

I agree that ARB offers leverage on movements in BTC but I think you're wildly optimistic about the magnitude of that effect. The initial over-buying by PIs (optimism effect) in February isn't likely to be repeated to that degree. There should also be larger investors holding by now, which may have a stabilising effect. It's more likely that ARB will track BTC, plus a decent margin. I suspect BTC may be $80-100k by late September and I'll be delighted if the SP is also 280-290 by then.

“ Fast - take the market by surprise - don't let the dumb money get back in on the cheap”

How on earth does a price reach an ATH without the market knowing about it?